SE WILLIAMSON'S MEETING WITH GOSS PRESIDENT SALVA

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 001208


SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2018
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SE WILLIAMSON'S MEETING WITH GOSS PRESIDENT SALVA
KIIR

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The formation of the Abyei Interim
Administration and the deployment of police to Abyei may
allow IDPs to begin to return to the troubled region, once
the Chief Administrator indicates that the time is right,
GOSS President Salva Kiir told visiting Special Envoy
Williamson August 9. Kiir said oil revenues should be shared
from the date of the Abyei Roadmap and that the NATIONAL
Petroleum Commission would meet in the next few weeks to
determine when payments would begin. Williamson encouraged
Kiir to seek a political solution to the longer-term border
issue in Abyei, and not to rely solely on the Permanent Court
of Arbitration in the Hague, which Kiir acknowledged but
pointed out that if there were adequate political will the
NCP would have implemented the Abyei Boundaries Commission
(ABC) report. Regarding the ICC, Kiir said the SPLM's
position has always been that Sudan should cooperate with the
ICC regarding previous indictments, but Kiir expressed grave
concerns about the impact of an indictment against President
Bashir on the stability of Sudan and the region. Williamson
responded that the US would consider Kiir's views carefully
in making any decision regarding ICC issues. End summary.


2. (U) White House Special Envoy for Sudan Richard Williamson
met with Government of Southern Sudan President Salva Kiir
August 9 in Khartoum. CDA Fernandez, State/L Christine
Sanford, and SE STAFF Assistants also attended; polchief
served as notetaker.

Abyei
--------------


3. (C) SE Williamson congratulated President Kiir for the
courage and restraint that he had shown during the Abyei
crisis in May, and acknowledged progress on the Abyei Roadmap
with the announcement August 9 of the Chief Administrator and
Deputy Administrator for the Abyei Interim Administration.
"Without your leadership the crisis in Abyei could have been
worse and spun out of control. You remain the indispensable
man for the South and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and
the US greatly appreciates the role you play," said SE
Williamson. The SE inquired when Internally Displaced
Persons (IDPs) would be able to return to Abyei from Agok and
asked about the status of the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs)
and the police units.


4. (C) President Kiir responded that IDPs could return once
the Interim Administration is in place, police units have
been deployed, and the Chief Administrator indicates that
conditions are right for IDPs to return to the troubled
region. Kiir said that some IDPs have already begun to
return with the news that the SAF 31st brigade had fully
withdrawn from Abyei town. However, Kiir pointed out that
the 31st brigade is still in the disputed area outside of
Abyei, within striking distance of Abyei town and near the
oil fields in Difra. Kiir said the police commander is from
the Abyei area but was deployed from the federal police in
Khartoum, and the SPLM has no problem with his selection,
however the entire joint police force has not yet been
deployed. Regarding the interim administration, Kiir said
there was no reason for the NCP to insist on appointing a
Misseriya as the Deputy Administrator, when the population is
overwhelmingly Dinka, but this was an obvious delaying tactic
of the NCP and the SPLM wanted to resolve the issue in order
to allow Abyei to begin receiving services and oil revenues.
Kiir said the Administrator (Arop Moyak) and his Deputy
(Rahama Al-Nour) will now consult for a limited time on the
composition of the councils and then the administration will
be established.


5. (C) Regarding oil wealth sharing, Kiir pointed out that it
will likely be impossible for the NATIONAL treasury to pay
back all Abyei oil revenues to the date of the signing of the
CPA on January 9, 2005. However, Kiir said the SPLM remains
flexible and at least payments would begin from the date of
the signing of the Abyei Roadmap. He said the NATIONAL
Petroleum Commission would meet in the next week or two to
determine when Abyei oil revenue sharing payments would
commence. Regarding the JIUs, Kiir noted that they are in
place already but expressed concern that SPLA and SAF forces
must be co-located and must train together, "otherwise
mistrust will still exist." Kiir related a conversation he
had with SRSG Qazi about the JIUs, in which Qazi reportedly
said that the JIUs must patrol south of Abyei town. Kiir
said he told Qazi that the threat comes from the north, from
the militias in Difra, and instead of going to Agok the JIUs
should instead patrol "in the areas of greatest threat north
of Abyei town."


6. (C) SE Williamson encouraged President Kiir to seek a
political solution to the long-term issue of Abyei's borders
rather than wait for the results of the PCA in the Hague,
which might still be rejected by the NCP and risked returning
the parties to the same situation that followed the NCP's
rejection of the ABC report. Kiir responded that there is
"only a tiny hope of success" on a political solution, as the
NCP could have implemented the ABC report if they had the
political will. He observed that all options had been
considered before the parties finally decided on the
arbitration mechanism. However, Kiir said the SPLM remains
open to discussion despite the limited options available,
"but both parties must be willing."

ICC and Elections
--------------


7. (C) SE Williamson noted that the Electoral Law was signed
on July 14 and asked whether the schedule for elections is
realistic. The SE also expressed concern about the
stipulation in the law that foreign contributions to
political parties would not be allowed, and inquired whether
this would not disadvantage smaller parties. Kiir did not
address the issue of foreign financing, but noted that the
electoral commission should be established by August 14.
Kiir also expressed concern that an indictment of President
Bashir would obstruct elections. "We all say elections will
take place, but it depends on how the ICC issue develops,"
said Kiir, noting that the president will need his office
more than ever before if he is indicted. SE Williamson
inquired how the GOS will act going forward given Kiir's role
as head of the committee tasked with responding to the ICC
indictment. Kiir responded that there is no clear answer,
that the "higher committee" has met twice and will meet again
soon to discuss how to approach the international community
on this issue. Kiir noted that the SPLM position has always
been that the GOS should cooperate with the ICC, and that if
the GOS had taken the SPLM's advice in 2006 and turned over
the previous two indictees, the "damage could have been
managed." "We need breathing space for dialogue, but the
days are running faster than actions and we want to be able
to move before things are decided for us," said Kiir. "Some
mobilization has occurred, but it has not helped."


8. (C) Kiir expressed grave concerns about the impact of an
indictment of President Bashir on the implementation of the
CPA and on the stability of Sudan and the broader region as a
whole. "Who will implement the CPA if President Bashir is
not there," he asked rhetorically, "and how will you solve
Darfur?" "Things can be managed with this president, but if
he is not there, no one can manage." Kiir observed that it
is "very awkward" to indict a sitting head of state and
questioned why Ocampo had targeted the president when he was
not even on the rumored list of 51 names of individuals who
were involved in war crimes in Darfur. Kiir predicted that
"this may bring down Sudan" and envisioned a scenario in
which each deputy will fight for control of the government,
and in the ensuing chaos the central government will lose
control and Darfur and the South will declare their
independence. "Everyone will run away with the land they can
control, with support from their regional neighbors and the
country will turn into another Somalia."


9. (C) SE Williamson pointed out that the prosecutor had only
made a recommendation to the pre-trial judges at the Hague,
and also pointed out that the US is not part of the ICC, but
promised to share President Kiir's concerns with President
Bush. The SE assured Kiir that the US is not behind the
prosecutor's actions and observed that the US has gained what
information it has about the indictment from France and the
UK. SE Williamson noted that the African Union and others
have suggested that the UNSC consider using Article 16 to
defer the indictment, and observed that no resolution at the
Security COUNCIL could pass if the US opposed it. He said
that the US has an obligation to reflect on such a proposal
but no decision has yet been made about what the US might do.
"We are not closing options or pre-judging, we are just
reflecting and sharing views, and we will consider your views
carefully."


10. (U) SE Williamson reviewed this cable prior to
transmission.


FERNANDEZ