SPLM SECRETARY GENERAL ON ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001168 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SU SUBJECT: SPLM SECRETARY GENERAL ON ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF SUDAN Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez. Reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: At an August 1 meeting SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amun told ConGen Juba that unless there is some dramatic change between now and 2011, the South will vote for independence. "Staying the course is a dead-end for Sudan," he said. One unlikely example of a dramatic change would be the SPLM overwhelmingly winning the elections in 2009, and the NCP accepting the result. "Only that kind of change in governance can make unity attractive to the entire country," he said. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Pagan opened the meeting by laying out the SPLM,s goals for the next three years, which include: winning an SPLM majority in the 2009 elections; peacefully completing the CPA; negotiating an end to the Darfur conflict; and improving relations with South Sudan,s neighbors and the international community. ¶3. (C) On the issue of the ICC, Pagan stated, "Bashir,s days are numbered, he cannot escape." The popular will of the country is turning against Bashir, he thought, and his grip on power is failing. In his opinion, an internal NCP coup against Bashir is possible, as there are many in the NCP who do not want to tie their futures to his falling star. Asked about the show of support Bashir received after the announcement of the possible indictments, Pagan stated that the crowds that were mobilized were far smaller than expected. The time was when a word from Bashir would bring out hundreds of thousands of supporters. No more. ¶4. (C) Concerning the 2009 elections, Pagan said that GOSS President Kiir may run for the GNU presidency, and he may Not (Kiir has told us he doesn,t intend to run). However, the SPLM has told Bashir that Kiir will run; their strategy is to keep the pressure on Bashir, as a potential bargaining chip. "The NCP has asked us to run with them, and so far we have refused," he said. When pressed on the subject, Pagan admitted that he expected that Kiir would continue in his role as the President of the Government of Southern Sudan and first Vice President of the GNU. A deal might eventually be struck to allow someone new from the NCP to hold the presidency, or even to allow Bashir to do so, if absolutely necessary to keep the CPA on track, which remains the primary focus of the SPLM. ¶5. (C) Asked about the 2011 referendum, Pagan stated that unless there is some dramatic change, the South will vote for independence. He noted: "Staying the course is a dead-end for Sudan." An example of such a dramatic change would be the SPLM winning a large majority in the 2009 elections, and the NCP accepting to lose power. Winning the elections, he thought, would be possible, but for the NCP to accept such an outcome was another matter. However, he said, only a win by the SPLM could make unity attractive in 2011. "The SPLM has the winning chip for unity and holding this country together, if it can use it." Nevertheless, he said, there is a divide in the SPLM on whether to even try to win the elections given the widespread belief that the NCP will never accept defeat. "We are torn in the SPLM between those who think big, and those who think local." He meant, he said, that some in the SPLM wanted to try to change the entire country, while many others were simply focused on 2011 and achieving independence for the South. While he wanted to try for change, he admitted that he was pessimistic that it could be achieved. ¶6. (C) If the South did break away, Pagan worried that Sudan could turn into another Yugoslavia, wracked by internal instability and fighting for years to come. This kind of breakdown in Sudan would not only be disastrous for the Sudanese, he said, but would also destabilize Sudan,s neighbors. ¶7. (C) Comment: It seems unlikely to us that Bashir,s grip on power is as tenuous as Pagan seems to think it is. Amun is usually the most extreme and apocalyptic of the SPLM,s leadership, presenting a dark view of Sudan,s future no matter what is happening. Some have suggested that Pagan has been so affected by the death of his mentor John Garang that he is mentally unstable (albeit brilliant). However, his comments on the elections and the 2011 referendum track closely with what we are hearing from multiple sources in the South. End Comment. KHARTOUM 00001168 002 OF 002 FERNANDEZ