GOSS MINISTER FOR PRESIDENTIAL AFFAIRS ON ICC, ELECTIONS,

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001126 DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: GOSS MINISTER FOR PRESIDENTIAL AFFAIRS ON ICC, ELECTIONS, ABYEI AND THE LRA *********************** * Missing Section 001 * *********************** KHARTOUM 00001126 002 OF 002 the South and its elections strategy. Clearly, the SPLM sees the indictments as a possible threat to the implementation of the CPA, and is focused on how to keep the CPA on track no matter what. The SPLM is always eager to seek additional leverage against the NCP and views a possible run (or threat to run) by Kiir for the national presidency in this regard. The problem of who would run in Kiir's place in the South, and what the party would do if Kiir loses in the national election, has not been fully addressed. Presumably the SPLM will say Kiir intends to run in the national election until the last possible minute, to gain leverage with the NCP, and then strike a deal to keep the status quo. It is certainly hard to imagine anyone else besides Salva Kiir being president of the GOSS in the sensitive and historic years leading up to the 2011 referendum on Southern independence. FERNANDEZ