MFA OFFICIALLY WARNS OF "DISASTROUS, SERIOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001044

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C,
NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON, ADDIS ABABA PLEASE PASS TO
USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2013
TAGS: ASEC KPKO PGOV PREL AU UN SU
SUBJECT: MFA OFFICIALLY WARNS OF "DISASTROUS, SERIOUS
IMPACT" IF BASHIR INDICTED BY ICC

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1025

B. KHARTOUM 996

C. KHARTOUM 993

D. KHARTOUM 992

E. KHARTOUM 982

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Sudanese Foreign Ministry called in
Charge to warn of "serious and disastrous consequences" if
President Al-Bashir is indicted by the International Criminal
Court. The Under-Secretary reiterated past requests (reftels)
that the US use its influence to rein in ICC prosecutor
Moreno-Ocampo. The MFA also warned of a possible new massive
attack by combined Darfur rebel groups either in Darfur or
the Nile Valley. At the same time, officials reiterated
their good will towards the United States and their intention
to beef up protection of Embassy facilities and personnel
over the next few days, including granting the Embassy
long-sought after regular vehicle plates in place of CD
plates. End summary.

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ICC TENSION PLUS POTENTIAL REBEL ATTACK
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2. (C) MFA summoned Charge Fernandez to an unusual weekend
meeting on July 11 to discuss the expected ICC indictments of
senior Sudanese officials. International news reports broke
on July 10 that President Al-Bashir could be named by ICC
prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo perhaps as soon as Monday, July 14.
CDA was received by MFA Under-Secretary Mutriff Siddiq and
head of protocol Ali Yusuf.


3. (C) Siddiq said that he had called in Charge to discuss
the ICC indictments based on the recent news stories. He
added that "we are heading towards something really big, that
will have an impact on all of Sudan and the region, not just
Darfur." Indicting any more senior Sudanese officials,
whether limited to the President or not, is "contrary to the
objective of peace and to your own goals in Sudan." He urged
that the USG "talk sense to Ocampo before it is too late."
Siddiq continued that "we don't know what will happen now but
any opportunist or enemy of the regime who wants to attack
Sudan will take this decision as an invitation to do their
worst." This will have consequences in Darfur but could also
affect the South, the East and regional stability, he
continued "anything is possible".


4. (C) Siddiq warned that the GOS is picking up increased
information about preparations for a major Darfur rebel
assault in that region. "The attack against UNAMID on July 8
was only a dry run," he warned, insisting that there was no
doubt that the Shangli Tobaya attack was carried out by rebel
forces and not GOS-supported janjaweed. JEM, SLA/Unity and
possibly Minni Minnawi's forces are uniting and the target
could be one of Darfur's capitals or even a return assault on
targets in the Nile Valley like the Merowe Dam or
Omdurman/Khartoum in the coming days and weeks even though
the rainy season should eventually make such operations more
difficult.

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ADDITIONAL SECURITY PROMISED
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5. (C) Mutriff said that he had spoken earlier to JSR Adada
and DSRSG for Humanitarian Affairs Amira Haqq (SRSG Qazi is
absent) to assure them that "the UN and UNAMID are our
guests, we will deal with them in a very civilized way, and
they have nothing to fear from the Sudanese Government as
long as they stick to their mandate." He said that the
Sudanese state's top priority will be to defend itself,
protect the capital and strategic targets, deter any rebel
assault and protect diplomatic missions. Siddiq added that
the GOS will be taking additional steps to beef up protection
for US Embassy staff and facilities within the next few days.
He had asked NISS (National Intelligence and Security
Service) to coordinate with Embassy security and RAO in
anything we needed. He said that the long sought after
non-diplomatic vehicle plates for embassy cars would be
granted "no later than early Sunday morning, July 13" (Note:
Embassy has been seeking the fulfillment of this Sudanese
promise for several months now but has been consistently
stymied by the Sudanese authorities since early June. End
note).

KHARTOUM 00001044 002 OF 002




6. (C) CDA thanked Siddiq for Sudanese efforts to protect
diplomatic missions, especially the US Embassy. He cautioned
Mutriff about any ill-considered media incitement by the
regime that could unintentionally stoke anti-Western and
anti-American feeling. He added that Mutriff was well aware
that the US is not a member of the ICC, does not recognize
its authority over Americans and abstained on UNSC 1593 which
asked for Sudan to cooperate with the court. Siddiq answered
that he was well aware of all the efforts that went into the
US abstaining and not vetoing 1593. He would be calling in
the UK, French, German and Italian Ambassadors later in the
day to give them a similar message "but asking them to do
more because - the British and French especially - are
pushing this decision." The MFA would also be meeting with
African countries and with Arab League states requesting
their support to fight this "reckless and unfair decision."


7. (C) Comment: Unlike several previous meetings with senior
Sudanese officials over the past week to discuss the
consequences of an ICC decision, this was a practical and
much more alarming meeting. The fact that the Sudanese
officials were quite friendly, helpful but also concerned
about unknown consequences is telling and the combination of
GOS fear of a new rebel attack coupled with rising tension
resulting from an ICC indictment is a new dimension for
chronically unstable Sudan. Our sense is that Siddiq's dire
depiction of the possibility of turmoil is only slightly
exaggerated. CDA is convening an EAC meeting today, July 11 -
the third such meeting in six days - to discuss what further
steps the Embassy should take. End comment.
FERNANDEZ