Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08KATHMANDU910 | 2008-08-13 10:39:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Kathmandu |
VZCZCXRO9477 OO RUEHCI DE RUEHKT #0910/01 2261039 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 131039Z AUG 08 FM AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9037 INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 6612 RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 6918 RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 2218 RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 4959 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 6172 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2584 RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY 0192 RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 4290 RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 2140 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 3287 RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000910 |
1. (C) Nominations for Nepal's new Prime Minister have to be filed August 14, with the election scheduled for August 15. Party leaders from the four largest parties have offered support in principle to a Maoist-led consensus government, but negotiations have been stuck on the allocation of the defense ministry. On August 13 parties continued talking in numerous meetings in an attempt to reach consensus. Pushpa Dahal is still the leading candidate to be elected Nepal's next Prime Minister. Process for Electing the Prime Minister -------------------------- 2. (U) According to the schedule published by the Constituent Assembly (CA) Secretariat, nominations for the post of Prime Minister must be filed August 14. The election is scheduled to commence August 15. If only one person is nominated, that person would be elected by acclimation as was done with CA Chairman Nemwang. If there are multiple candidates then voting will be conducted on one candidate at a time until someone receives a majority. For example, if the first candidate nominated did not receive a majority vote (248 of the 594 qualified voters) then a second round of voting would be held with the second candidate nominated. According to Mukunda Sharma, Spokesman of the CA Secretariat, if no candidate received a majority there was no plan to call for new nominations. Rather, the CA would simply keep cycling through the names until someone did receive a majority. Defense Ministry Sticking Point in Negotiations -------------------------- -- 3. (C) At an August 12 dinner hosted by the Norwegian Ambassador for senior leaders of the four major parties (Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M), Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML), and Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF)) and chiefs of mission, all party representatives offered continued support in principle for a consensus government. However, NC representative Minendra Rijal was adamant that NC would accept nothing less than the defense ministry as a condition for supporting a Maoist-led consensus government. Dr. Baburam Bhattarai (CPN-M) indicated this remains unacceptable to the Maoists, and both party leaders rejected efforts by the diplomats to suggest possible compromise solutions. In contrast, Amod Upadhyaya, CA Member for NC, told Poloff August 13 that while NC believed a Maoist Defense Minister would paralyze the security agencies, NC was not maintaining an absolute claim on the Defense Ministry for itself. He indicated a Defense Minister from MPRF or from one of the smaller parties, could also be acceptable to NC. But Talks Continue -------------------------- 4. (C) All of the party leaders at the dinner indicated that negotiations were on-going across the parties, with numerous sessions scheduled on August 13. They all acknowledged there is a tendency to come to agreement at the last minute and no one ruled out a late night session on August 13 or 14 that might drastically alter the current deadlock. Upadhyaya stated NC was still waiting for the Maoists to fulfill previous commitments and a credible move by the Maoists to address those issues would make it easier for NC to join a consensus government. Amod Upadhyaya confirmed that NC had tentatively decided to put forward its own nominee for Prime Minister if no consensus is reached. He admitted that NC realized it would lose the election, but the party leaders thought it important to take a clear stand against the Maoists. Comment KATHMANDU 00000910 002 OF 002 -------------------------- 5. (C) At close of business no breakthroughs have come out of today's talks. It is possible that Maoist leader Pushpa Dahal (aka Prachanda) will be the sole nominee for the position of Prime Minister. However, it is also possible that one or more other parties may nominate a candidate, as a negotiating ploy, to make a point to their own supporters, or to form an alternate government (excluding the Maoists). Post assesses the chances of an alternate government as less likely than a Maoist-led majoritarian government. The Maoists have been trying hard to convince the UML to join a majoritarian government if no consensus is found. While one faction of the party appears open to this appeal, another faction is resisting due to their concerns about the UML being unable to maintain its identity and promote its policies if it is the only party in government with the Maoists. Even if Dahal is elected Prime Minister on August 15th cross-party negotiations will need to continue for some time in order to fill other cabinet positions. POWELL |