NEPAL ELECTION: 79 DAYS TO GO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000087 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EAID NP SUBJECT: NEPAL ELECTION: 79 DAYS TO GO Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) With just over 11 weeks to go until Nepal's rescheduled Constituent Assembly election, the Election Commission has announced the electoral schedule and is moving ahead in reviving the election machinery. But the parties have yet to move into high gear. Many continue to doubt that the election will be held -- citing various potential spoilers, including the King, the Nepali Congress, the Maoists and, most commonly, the trouble in the Terai. Post is operating under the assumption the election will be held April 10, as scheduled. Election Date and Schedule Announced -------------- ¶2. (U) On January 11, the Government of Nepal (GON) announced that the twice-postponed Constituent Assembly election would be held on April 10. The announcement came exactly 90 days prior to the poll date, which was the minimum advance warning the Election Commission (EC) had requested. On January 13, the EC released the election schedule. As in fall 2007, there are separate schedules for the first-past-the-post (FPTP) and the proportional (PR) parts of the election. Key deadlines over the next 11 weeks (79 days) are as follows: February 20 -- Parties to submit candidate lists to EC (PR) February 25 -- Parties to register candidate nominations with EC (FPTP) February 26 -- EC to publish candidate nominations (FPTP) February 27 -- EC to complete review of candidate lists (PR) February 28 -- EC to complete review of candidate nominations (FPTP) February 28 -- EC to publish names of candidates (FPTP) March 1 -- Deadline for parties to withdraw names of candidates (FPTP) March 1 -- EC to publish final candidate lists (FPTP) March 2 -- EC to assign electoral symbols (FPTP) March 5 -- Parties to submit corrected candidate lists (PR) March 6 -- EC to publish candidate lists (PR) March 23 -- Deadline for parties to withdraw names from candidate lists (PR) March 25 -- EC to publish final candidate lists after public comment (PR) March 25 -- EC to assign electoral symbols (PR) April 10 -- Election Day Election Schedule: Comment -------------- ¶3. (C) The first deadline -- to submit candidate lists for the 335 PR seats -- is February 20. On October 7, 2007, the date on which the PR candidate lists were due for the planned November 22 election, the governing Six-Party Alliance and the Maoists decided to postpone the election. Last time there were 41 days from that first deadline until election day. This time around there are 43 days. It is worth noting that the election schedule for the FPTP seats is tighter than the PR schedule. It starts later (February 25) and finishes sooner (March 2). This is because the EC will have to print 240 different FPTP ballots, one for each of the 240 FPTP constituencies. In contrast, there will be only one PR ballot for the entire country. Election Commission Gearing Up -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On January 12, the EC announced that the Election Code of Conduct would come into effect for the Government of Nepal (GON) on January 16. It would come into effect for the political parties (or individuals) from the date on which they filed candidate lists (February 20 or 25). In spite of a reported request by representatives from some of the main political parties to the EC to delay, the Code of Conduct came into effect as scheduled. (Note: The principal result KATHMANDU 00000087 002 OF 003 is that the GON is barred from transferring officials and beginning new projects which might improperly influence the election, although the EC has already granted at least two waivers. End note.) According to the UN Mission in Nepal's Senior Election Adviser, Fidah Nasrullah, the EC had already begun re-transferring ballot boxes to the 10 districts that had put them into storage. It has already finished packaging polling kits to be sent to the districts by the end of January. Parties Still Slow To Move -------------- ¶5. (C) With a few exceptions, the political parties have yet to move into high gear. As promised in the 23-Point Agreement in late December, the Six-Party Alliance and the Maoists have begun holding seven mass election rallies. The first, organized by Prime Minister Koirala's center-right Nepali Congress (NC) in Kathmandu on January 14, was uninspiring. The NC claimed they would be able to draw up to 500,000, but ended up with perhaps fewer than 10,000. The NC's no. 2 leader, former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, was booed by a crowd that was dominated by Maoists. A bombing near the rally site downtown that injured eight only added to the pall. The second mass rally, on January 19 in Biratnagar in the eastern Terai, which the center-left Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) put together, was much more successful. Approximately 100,000 participated, according to press reports. Likewise, the small, Madhesi-based Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Ananda Devi) coordinated a rally January 21 in Bhairahawa, in the western Terai, with a similarly-sized crowd. Maoist Preparations Taking Center Stage -------------- ¶6. (C) The Maoists are responsible for the next mass rally, on January 24 in Dhangadhi, in the far western Terai. They, in fact, have dominated media reports on election preparation by the parties. Beginning with a several-day Central Committee meeting in early January in which the party's commitment to elections was allegedly emphasized, followed by pre-election training on January 19 for several hundred Maoist leaders under Maoist chief Pushpa Dahal (aka Prachanda),it is the Maoist efforts which are in the news. The NC, meanwhile is facing a very public dispute between those in its ranks, generally associated with the rump monarchist wing of the party, who see the NC as going too far to accommodate the Maoists, and the rest of the party. The Prime Minister himself is under fire for his appointment of his daughter Sujata, who has publicly taken a pro-monarchy line, as Minister Without Portfolio. His current bout of serious illness has also set the party back. Meanwhile, the UML, which was widely seen as the best prepared party the last time around has yet to fully mobilize its cadre, according to the National Democratic Institute. Comment: Election Still in Doubt -------------- ¶7. (C) In spite of the GON's announcement of an April 10 Constituent Assembly election date and the EC's proclamation of the revised election schedule, many observers, including senior party representatives, continue to doubt whether an election will actually take place. Many Nepali leaders are convinced that King Gyanendra is doing his utmost to prevent the election from occurring, and point to recent statements by some Indian leaders on the need to preserve Nepal's monarchy and to violence in the Terai as evidence. Others see the continuing internal difficulties of the NC, which has yet to complete its September 2007 reunification with the former NC-Democratic, as another reason why an election is unlikely. PM Koirala's current bout of ill health gives little comfort. Many, particularly in the NC, but also UMLers, fear that, even if the Maoists do end up filing candidacies, they will pull out at the last minute when it becomes apparent that they will do poorly in the polls. Everyone is worried that violence in the Terai will derail KATHMANDU 00000087 003 OF 003 election plans. Despite our own misgivings, post is operating under the assumption for now that the election will take place as scheduled. POWELL