NEPAL: PARTIES MAKE PROGRESS, BUT NO NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000705 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER MARR UN NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: PARTIES MAKE PROGRESS, BUT NO NEW GOVERNMENT YET REF: A. KATHMANDU 697 ¶B. KATHMANDU 689 Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Senior political leaders told the Ambassador June 19 that the three major parties were close to a deal to break the deadlock over appointment of the President and vote in a new Maoist-led government. At close of business on June 20, however, Nepali Congress reservations to ending Prime Minister G.P. Koirala's career were holding up the final package. The deal includes a constitutional amendment to elect the President and Prime Minister by simple majority. It also includes an agreements on integrating People's Liberation Army combatants into the Nepal Army, demilitarizing of the Maoist Young Communist League and returning of Maoist-seized property. Former Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist General Secretary M.K. Nepal was the latest favorite to become Nepal's first President. A senior NC leader informed the Ambassador June 19 that the NC was considering going into opposition. Close to a Deal -------------- ¶2. (C) On June 19, Maoist senior leader Dr. Baburam Bhattarai as well as former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) General Secretary Jhalanath Khanal told the Ambassador that the three parties had reached a political deal. Bhattarai, in the morning, and Deuba and Khanal, at midday, indicated that Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala would offer his resignation to the governing Seven-Party Alliance (SPA) at a meeting later in the afternoon. This would be followed, they all said, by a fifth set of amendments to the Interim Constitution to elect the President, the Vice President and the Prime Minister by simple majority. The Fifth Amendment could, they said, by adopted in a matter of days. Regarding the President, the Maoists and the UML had agreed to let the Constituent Assembly (CA) decide -- through multiple ballots, if necessary -- on the actual person of the President if no consensus could be reached by the parties in advance. Nepali Congress Not Yet On Board -------------- ¶3. (C) In the end, the SPA meeting, which was scheduled for 3 p.m. on June 19, did not take place until 7:30 p.m. PM Koirala did not offer his resignation. Instead, he reportedly stated that he would not resign unless a majority of the SPA asked him to resign. (Note: The SPA consists of the Maoists, the NC, the UML, and four minor parties that collectively won merely 21 of the Assembly's 575 elected seats. End note.) A second SPA meeting was scheduled for June 20. One Embassy source reported June 20 that some senior members of the NC were privately encouraging the main UML presidential candidate, former UML General Secretary M.K. Nepal. Local observers interpreted the Prime Minister's last-ditch effort to put the decision about his future in the lap of the SPA, instead of the less supportive CA, as a sign that he had not yet become reconciled to stepping down. No NC leaders voiced opposition to post about the constitutional amendments themselves. Their concern was about approving the amendment and allowing the CA to decide at a time when Koirala faced such opposition in becoming President -- from the Maoists, Madhesis and the UML. Agreement on Peace Process Issues -------------- ¶4. (C) Deuba and Khanal, as well as UML negotiator Bhim KATHMANDU 00000705 002 OF 002 Rawal, informed the Ambassador on June 19 that the three major parties had reached agreement on three other major issues: how to handle integration of People,s Liberation Army (PLA) combatants, demilitarizing the Maoist Young Communist League (YCL) and return of land seized by the Maoists. Senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai made the same point to the Ambassador earlier in the day. Bhattarai said it was now a matter of process, of implementing what had already been agreed in the peace accords. The Maoists agreed that only those verified combatants who meet Nepal Army standards would have the possibility of integration. The details would be worked out by the constitutional 146 Committee with the PLA brought under Government of Nepal (GON) control in the meantime with integration to be completed quickly. Maoist Members of Parliament, including Maoist chairman Pushpa Dahal, who concurrently held commands in the PLA, would resign those commands. The YCL were to leave their barracks and end their paramilitary training in 15 days. The Maoists were to return seized land, and the GON would be obliged to enforce the provision, unlike in the past. In response to a question from the head of the UN Mission in Nepal, Ian Martin, Rawal stated that the commissions, such as the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, mandated by the various peace agreements were to be established within one month of the formation of a new government. M.K. Nepal Favorite To Be President -------------- ¶5. (C) At close of business on June 20, UML senior leader M.K. Nepal was the favorite to become Nepal's first President. Deuba conceded as much when he told Khanal before departing the lunch meeting at the Ambassador's residence on June 19: "I have to leave now for a party meeting to figure out how to stop your candidate." But Khanal admitted to the Ambassador that the Maoists had not yet agreed to support Nepal. The Maoists' stated preference was still for Foreign Minister Sahana Pradhan. Khanal said UML's second choice was former Speaker of the Interim Parliament Subash Nemwang -- if the former UML General Secretary proved unelectable. NC leader Minendra Rijal stated to the Ambassador the morning of June 19 that the NC was intending to go into opposition if Koirala were not elected President. Another NC MP made the same promise later in the day. According to one Embassy source, the Maoists and the UML decided in a meeting early on June 20 to offer the NC the Chair of the Assembly as an enticement to join a Maoist-UML coalition. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) On June 19, UML chief Jhalanath Khanal was optimistic that a deal could be brokered to amend the constitution, vote in the President and form a new government, perhaps in a matter of days. A day later, an immediate deal does not seem nearly so likely. The options for NC, however, are decreasing. The party is facing pressure now not only from outside, but from within, including from its MPs, who are angry that a small coterie of leaders is once again attempting to decide Nepal's political future without regard to the elected Parliament. Koirala and his inner circle may be of the opinion that he needs and deserves to become President and should remain Prime Minister until he is assured of the Presidency, but that is an ever smaller circle. If he continues to obstruct the process of government formation, he runs the risk of squandering the good will he has won over the last two years through his leadership of the peace process and the Constituent Assembly election. Ultimately, the other parties, including the Madhesi parties who have no love for Koirala, will simply circumvent the NC and make the changes they need in the Constitution. The NC does not have the votes to stop them. POWELL