NEPAL: PM KOIRALA EXPECTS A POLITICAL DEAL BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000583 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM KOIRALA EXPECTS A POLITICAL DEAL BEFORE ASSEMBLY MEETS REF: KATHMANDU 579 KATHMANDU 00000583 001.3 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Prime Minister Koirala told visiting South and Central Asia Deputy Assistant Secretary Feigenbaum and the Ambassador May 25 that he expected the major political parties would reach a deal before the Constituent Assembly meets on May 28 which would lay the groundwork for formation of a new government. He said his Nepali Congress would join the government, but was vague about what role he might hold in it. Koirala argued that the biggest challenge was dealing with the Maoists' separate army and paramilitary Young Communist League. He defended the NC's other demands as necessary to create checks and balances. DAS Feigenbaum stressed the importance of a political process which led to a new government soon that reflected the will of the people from the April 10 election. He strongly agreed on the need for an end to political violence, especially by the Maoists. Feigenbaum also emphasized that the CA's planned abolition of the monarchy on May 28 should proceed in a peaceful environment. The Prime Minister responded that he had instructed the security forces to be responsible. Political Deal Within Days -------------- ¶2. (C) During a May 25 meeting with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Evan Feigenbaum, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala informed his visitor that ongoing talks between the Maoists, the Prime Minister's Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist, and Madhesi People's Rights Forum on formation of new Maoist-led government were difficult, but moving "in a positive direction." He stated that Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal (aka Prachanda) had seemed a bit flexible in a discussion earlier the same morning. The PM said the parties would discuss the outstanding issues and finalize a deal by the evening of May 26. Everything had to be settled by then, he warned, otherwise, there "will be trouble". The PM added that he had told Prachanda all the open matters had to be resolved before the Constituent Assembly (CA) held its first meeting on May 28. (Note: The newly elected CA members are to be sworn in on May 27. End note.) The Nepali Congress and Koirala's Role In New Government -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) PM Koirala, who is head of the Nepali Congress (NC), was unequivocal that his party would join the government, but the NC also had conditions for joining. NC wanted to see Nepal adopt a new, democratic constitution. He implied it could not accomplish that goal from outside the governing coalition. With respect to his own future role, the Prime Minister was much more vague. He mentioned that he would cooperate and contribute whether or not he was in government. Need To Deal with PLA and YCL -------------- ¶4. (C) Koirala argued that the biggest challenge for the negotiators was dealing with "security arrangements," referring to the Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the Young Communist League (YCL). When asked if it was realistic to expect to resolve these issues in the few days remaining before the first CA session, the PM was insistent that the Nepali people expected no less. Nepalis knew there should not be two armies in one country, any more than there should be two governments. (Comment: This was presumably a reference to the so-called Maoist "People's Governments" still operational in a number of districts.) The Prime KATHMANDU 00000583 002 OF 003 Minister claimed that once these issues were resolved, the political issues could be settled easily. Need for Checks and Balances -------------- 5.(C) PM Koirala defended the NC's stated conditions as creating required checks and balances. He said the proposed office of the President and that of the Prime Minister needed to be split. One person could not be both head of state and head of government -- at least not in the case of the Maoists, who had their own armed forces. (Note: Koirala has filled both roles for the past two years. End note.) The Maoists were opposed to this change and preferred the status quo if there was not going to be an executive president. Koirala suggested that one way to resolve the dispute was to discuss the powers of the respective offices. The PM also championed the NC's demand that the Interim Constitution be amended to make it possible for a simple majority of CA members to elect and replace a government. Without these changes, it would be difficult for the non-Maoist parties to take an independent stand. He repeatedly voiced his concern that the Maoists would not respect human rights nor remain in the democratic mainstream. New Government Required Soon -------------- ¶6. (C) DAS Feigenbaum congratulated the Prime Minister on the successful completion of the April 10 CA election. He emphasized, however, that it was important for the political process to continue moving forward. A new government was required soon that reflected the will of the people. The longer the talks dragged on, the more public dissatisfaction would grow, and other dangers could arise. DAS Feigenbaum laid down a marker with the PM that the United States would not tolerate a coup by the Nepal Army or a "democratic" coup where the Army intervened on Koirala's orders. Issues had to be resolved through talks. Political Violence Has To End -------------- ¶7. (C) DAS Feigenbaum stressed as well the need for an immediate end to political violence. He remarked that Maoist YCL violence was a particular concern. The Prime Minister, wholeheartedly agreed, saying he had told Prachanda that the YCL could not continue as a paramilitary organization. It had to be changed. The PM stated that he had made a similar point to Prachanda about the PLA, with reference to the recent case of Kathmandu businessman and Maoist supporter, Ram Hari Shrestha: the PLA could not kidnap and murder people. This sort of thing had to stop as soon as possible. (Note: One of the PLA combatants accused of torturing Shrestha, who was accused of stealing a large sum from the Maoists, helped to identify Shrestha's body on May 25, after it was found in a river in Chitwan district, south of the capital. End Note.) Feigenbaum alerted the PM that the U.S. had heard reports about other parties forming armed youth wings, including his own Nepali Congress. The DAS was firm that all parties needed to move away from violence. May 28 Should Be Peaceful -------------- ¶8. (C) DAS Feigenbaum made the point that May 28 was an important day for Nepal; the next phase in Nepal's history should be peaceful. The Ambassador asked in particular what precautions the Interim Government was taking for security at the ROYAL Palace. The Prime Minister conceded that things might happen because of the CA's plan to abolish the monarchy on that day, but said that the state's security forces were organized. Special riot police would be deployed. Protests would be banned in the immediate vicinity of the Birendra International Conference Center, where the CA would be KATHMANDU 00000583 003 OF 003 meeting. Koirala said he had no objection, however, to protests if they were peaceful and took place in appropriate locations. He noted that he had told Prachanda the Maoists needed to act responsibly. In response to a question from DAS Feigenbaum, the PM said the police had been instructed to use restraint and given strict orders not to fire on protesters. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Prime Minister Koirala was in far better form for his meeting on May 25 with SCA DAS Feigenbaum than when he met with the Ambassador only two days previously (reftel). He was more engaged and less reliant on staff; External Affairs Advisor Aditya Baral did not have to feed him answers. Still, he blithely repeated that a political deal on a new government was imminent knowing full well that he had told the Ambassador on May 23 a deal would be reached by May 23 or May 24. We are understandably skeptical. It is possible that an agreement will be reached before the Constituent Assembly's first meeting on May 28, but any agreement is likely to paper over most of the differences. We are also not completely reassured that May 28 will proceed as peacefully as the Prime Minister seems to expect. In his meetings on May 26 with Chief of Army Staff General Katawal and Maoist chief Prachanda, DAS Feigenbaum will stress that the new Republic of Nepal deserves a peaceful start. ¶10. (U) SCA DAS Feigenbaum has cleared this message. POWELL