NEPAL: PM KOIRALA EXPECTS A POLITICAL DEAL BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000583

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM KOIRALA EXPECTS A POLITICAL DEAL BEFORE
ASSEMBLY MEETS

REF: KATHMANDU 579

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Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
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1. (C) Prime Minister Koirala told visiting South and Central
Asia Deputy Assistant Secretary Feigenbaum and the Ambassador
May 25 that he expected the major political parties would
reach a deal before the Constituent Assembly meets on May 28
which would lay the groundwork for formation of a new
government. He said his Nepali Congress would join the
government, but was vague about what role he might hold in
it. Koirala argued that the biggest challenge was dealing
with the Maoists' separate army and paramilitary Young
Communist League. He defended the NC's other demands as
necessary to create checks and balances. DAS Feigenbaum
stressed the importance of a political process which led to a
new government soon that reflected the will of the people
from the April 10 election. He strongly agreed on the need
for an end to political violence, especially by the Maoists.
Feigenbaum also emphasized that the CA's planned abolition of
the monarchy on May 28 should proceed in a peaceful
environment. The Prime Minister responded that he had
instructed the security forces to be responsible.

Political Deal Within Days
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2. (C) During a May 25 meeting with Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Evan
Feigenbaum, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala informed his
visitor that ongoing talks between the Maoists, the Prime
Minister's Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal -
United Marxist Leninist, and Madhesi People's Rights Forum on
formation of new Maoist-led government were difficult, but
moving "in a positive direction." He stated that Maoist
Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal (aka Prachanda) had seemed a bit
flexible in a discussion earlier the same morning. The PM
said the parties would discuss the outstanding issues and
finalize a deal by the evening of May 26. Everything had to
be settled by then, he warned, otherwise, there "will be
trouble". The PM added that he had told Prachanda all the
open matters had to be resolved before the Constituent
Assembly (CA) held its first meeting on May 28. (Note: The
newly elected CA members are to be sworn in on May 27. End
note.)

The Nepali Congress and Koirala's Role In New Government
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3. (C) PM Koirala, who is head of the Nepali Congress (NC),
was unequivocal that his party would join the government, but
the NC also had conditions for joining. NC wanted to see
Nepal adopt a new, democratic constitution. He implied it
could not accomplish that goal from outside the governing
coalition. With respect to his own future role, the Prime
Minister was much more vague. He mentioned that he would
cooperate and contribute whether or not he was in government.

Need To Deal with PLA and YCL
--------------


4. (C) Koirala argued that the biggest challenge for the
negotiators was dealing with "security arrangements,"
referring to the Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) and
the Young Communist League (YCL). When asked if it was
realistic to expect to resolve these issues in the few days
remaining before the first CA session, the PM was insistent
that the Nepali people expected no less. Nepalis knew there
should not be two armies in one country, any more than there
should be two governments. (Comment: This was presumably a
reference to the so-called Maoist "People's Governments"
still operational in a number of districts.) The Prime

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Minister claimed that once these issues were resolved, the
political issues could be settled easily.

Need for Checks and Balances
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5.(C) PM Koirala defended the NC's stated conditions as
creating required checks and balances. He said the proposed
office of the President and that of the Prime Minister needed
to be split. One person could not be both head of state and
head of government -- at least not in the case of the
Maoists, who had their own armed forces. (Note: Koirala has
filled both roles for the past two years. End note.) The
Maoists were opposed to this change and preferred the status
quo if there was not going to be an executive president.
Koirala suggested that one way to resolve the dispute was to
discuss the powers of the respective offices. The PM also
championed the NC's demand that the Interim Constitution be
amended to make it possible for a simple majority of CA
members to elect and replace a government. Without these
changes, it would be difficult for the non-Maoist parties to
take an independent stand. He repeatedly voiced his concern
that the Maoists would not respect human rights nor remain in
the democratic mainstream.

New Government Required Soon
--------------


6. (C) DAS Feigenbaum congratulated the Prime Minister on the
successful completion of the April 10 CA election. He
emphasized, however, that it was important for the political
process to continue moving forward. A new government was
required soon that reflected the will of the people. The
longer the talks dragged on, the more public dissatisfaction
would grow, and other dangers could arise. DAS Feigenbaum
laid down a marker with the PM that the United States would
not tolerate a coup by the Nepal Army or a "democratic" coup
where the Army intervened on Koirala's orders. Issues had to
be resolved through talks.

Political Violence Has To End
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7. (C) DAS Feigenbaum stressed as well the need for an
immediate end to political violence. He remarked that Maoist
YCL violence was a particular concern. The Prime Minister,
wholeheartedly agreed, saying he had told Prachanda that the
YCL could not continue as a paramilitary organization. It
had to be changed. The PM stated that he had made a similar
point to Prachanda about the PLA, with reference to the
recent case of Kathmandu businessman and Maoist supporter,
Ram Hari Shrestha: the PLA could not kidnap and murder
people. This sort of thing had to stop as soon as possible.
(Note: One of the PLA combatants accused of torturing
Shrestha, who was accused of stealing a large sum from the
Maoists, helped to identify Shrestha's body on May 25, after
it was found in a river in Chitwan district, south of the
capital. End Note.) Feigenbaum alerted the PM that the U.S.
had heard reports about other parties forming armed youth
wings, including his own Nepali Congress. The DAS was firm
that all parties needed to move away from violence.

May 28 Should Be Peaceful
--------------


8. (C) DAS Feigenbaum made the point that May 28 was an
important day for Nepal; the next phase in Nepal's history
should be peaceful. The Ambassador asked in particular what
precautions the Interim Government was taking for security at
the Royal Palace. The Prime Minister conceded that things
might happen because of the CA's plan to abolish the monarchy
on that day, but said that the state's security forces were
organized. Special riot police would be deployed. Protests
would be banned in the immediate vicinity of the Birendra
International Conference Center, where the CA would be

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meeting. Koirala said he had no objection, however, to
protests if they were peaceful and took place in appropriate
locations. He noted that he had told Prachanda the Maoists
needed to act responsibly. In response to a question from
DAS Feigenbaum, the PM said the police had been instructed to
use restraint and given strict orders not to fire on
protesters.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Prime Minister Koirala was in far better form for his
meeting on May 25 with SCA DAS Feigenbaum than when he met
with the Ambassador only two days previously (reftel). He
was more engaged and less reliant on staff; External Affairs
Advisor Aditya Baral did not have to feed him answers.
Still, he blithely repeated that a political deal on a new
government was imminent knowing full well that he had told
the Ambassador on May 23 a deal would be reached by May 23 or
May 24. We are understandably skeptical. It is possible
that an agreement will be reached before the Constituent
Assembly's first meeting on May 28, but any agreement is
likely to paper over most of the differences. We are also
not completely reassured that May 28 will proceed as
peacefully as the Prime Minister seems to expect. In his
meetings on May 26 with Chief of Army Staff General Katawal
and Maoist chief Prachanda, DAS Feigenbaum will stress that
the new Republic of Nepal deserves a peaceful start.


10. (U) SCA DAS Feigenbaum has cleared this message.
POWELL