DIPLOMATIC BREAKFAST WITH MAJOR PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000560

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NP
SUBJECT: DIPLOMATIC BREAKFAST WITH MAJOR PARTY
REPRESENTATIVES

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, A.I. RANDY W. BERRY FOR REASONS 1.5 (
B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Major political parties vowed continued
commitment to consensus politics during a breakfast meeting
with senior diplomats on May 19, and acknowledged some, but
not enough, progress towards an agreement to form a new
Nepali government. With the Constituent Assembly,s first
sitting just nine days away, significant differences remain,
particularly on issues relating to the integration of the
People,s Liberation Army (PLA) and a constitutional
amendment to alter the threshold for formation (and
termination) of the new government. All acknowledged that
the Maoists, having won more votes than any other party, have
the right and responsibility to bring together a new
coalition government. This was the first group interaction
since the April 10 election. End Summary.


2. (C) Charge Berry attended the most recent in the ongoing
series of meetings between political party leaders and senior
Kathmandu-based diplomats on May 19. Norwegian Ambassador
Toreng hosted; other diplomatic attendees were the Danish
Ambassador, Finnish Charge, UK Deputy Chief of Mission, and
UNMIN Deputy Chief. Nepalis attending, representing the five
largest parties in the new Constituent Assembly, were Baburam
Bhattarai (Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist),Minendra Rizal
(Nepali Congress),M.K. Nepal (Communist Party of Nepal-
United Marxist-Leninist),Shyam Suman (Madhesi People,s
Rights Forum),and Mahanta Thakur (Terai Madhes Loktantrik
Party).


3. (C) In turn, each political leader struck similar points.
All categorically stated that consensus must be the
prevailing principle underpinning the new Constituent
Assembly and guiding the formation of the new Nepali
government. All likewise acknowledged that the Maoists,
success in garnering a plurality entitled them to take the
lead in forming the new government. All parties also
confirmed that the first order of business when the new
Assembly sits on May 28 will be the formal declaration of a
republic, and an end to Nepal,s 250-year old monarchy.
Aside from these three core issues, the parties remain
separated by positions substantially at odds, particularly on
two key issues PLA integration and the threshold for forming
and bringing down any future government. The latter subject
engendered more enthusiastic debate than any other.


4. (C) Bhattarai, typically the quietest of the
participants, assumed a significantly more prominent role in
this morning,s meeting. He confirmed that the existing Six
Party Alliance had been broadened by consensus into a
grouping of the 13 largest parties following the April 10
elections, and that talks were continuing through a task
force to establish relationships and an agenda for the
initial Assembly sitting. While he noted broad agreement on
several issues, he said that discussion continued on key
governance questions, such as the establishment of a
Presidential vs. Prime Ministerial system, or whether any
future Nepali President would carry executive or ceremonial
powers.


5. (C) NC,s Rizal raised persisting violence by the cadres
of the Maoists, Young Communist League, and argued
forcefully (with the broad agreement of everyone else at the
table) that the YCL must transform into a mainstream party
youth wing, and forego its quasi-military nature and the
routine use of force and intimidation. Bhattarai did not
acknowledge YCL abuses, nor did he refute them. He indicated
that the Maoists and NC had agreed that the YCL would need to
operate like other party youth wings. Rizal also criticized
the Maoists, reliance on other parallel structures,
referring mainly to the PLA and people,s courts that remain
intact. His most forceful point, however, was on the issue
of amending the interim constitution to change the threshold
for governance.


6. (C) All of the parties except the Maoists voiced their

preference for changing the threshold to a simple majority.
The interim constitution currently requires consensus or a
2/3 majority to either form (or dissolve) a government. A
standoff on this particular issue appears to be in the
offing: without the support of the NC and UML, the Maoists,
with 38% of the seats, cannot muster the 2/3 majority needed
to form the next government. While changing the requirement
to a simple majority would allow them to do so with minority
partners (significantly, the Madhesi parties, with a combined
13.9%),it would also enable the UML and NC (with 18% and
19%, respectively) with minority support to move a vote of
no-confidence and bring down the government. While the
Maoists need NC/UML support to form the government, they do
not want to surrender their ability to singularly block any
no-confidence motion or lend a new Maoist-led government
vulnerable. Agree to change the threshold, the NC and UML
argued, and the parties will cooperate in the formation of a
new government under Maoist leadership; keep it at 2/3 and no
new government can be established.


7. (C) M.K. Nepal, attending for the first time in his new
capacity as the UML,s foreign relations chief after stepping
down as the party,s leader, acknowledged that the Nepali
people had voted for change on April 10. As those agents of
change, he insisted, it now was incumbent upon the Maoists
and Madhesi parties to create the proper environment for
consensus-based politics under this new order, though he
evinced little sincerity while vowing the UML,s support as a
minority party if that environment were created. Nepal, in
responding to a question on the country's looming fuel
crisis, gestured to the Maoist,s Bhattarai and said,
effectively, that it was now their problem to solve.


8. (C) Madhesi party reps were largely quiet other than to
insist that their primary focus would remain on ensuring
adherence to previous GON-Madhesi agreements. Shyam Suman
said the MPRF, in particular, had no priority interest in
becoming part of the governing coalition, but that if other
demands were addressed, presumably on the one Madhesh, one
Pradesh issue, his party would be prepared to join.


9. (C) Diplomats attending today,s breakfast sounded a
uniform call for respect for the outcome of the election, a
continuation of consensus governance, respect for democratic
principles, cessation of violence (particularly by the YCL),
and the creation of a conducive environment in which to craft
the new constitution.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) While the renewed commitment to consensus-based
governance is reassuring, it is clear that the devil really
is in the details. It is possible that the Maoists and the
other parties can come to some sort of accommodation on the
future of the PLA and YCL, even if implementation is likely
problematic. However, the deals that must be struck on
government formation and power-sharing will likely be even
more complicated. The threshold requirement is one such
obstacle, but will no means be the only one. The cabinet
horse-trading that would ensue following an agreement would
also likely be fraught with complications. With May 28 and
the inaugural session looming, a solution, in typical Nepali
style, is likely to come at the last minute, or not at all.












BERRY