NEPAL: MAOIST VIOLENCE DECREASING BUT STILL A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000454 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST VIOLENCE DECREASING BUT STILL A CONCERN REF: A. KATHMANDU 418 ¶B. KATHMANDU 450 Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Post's Regional Security Office and a domestic observer group reported numerous incidents of pre-election violence, at least half of which were instigated by the Maoists. Although election day was largely peaceful, four people were killed, eight abducted, and 112 injured on election day. Post-election statements by Maoist leadership remain largely moderate and welcoming of better relations with the international community, including the United States. Persistent Pre-Election Violence -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to reports compiled by post's Regional Security Office (RSO),in the two and one half weeks prior to Nepal's April 10 Constituent Assembly election the number of violent political incidents declined from 27 (March 25-31) to 21 (April 1-7 and April 8-14). Each week the Maoists or their Young Communist League (YCL) were responsible for instigating one half of the incidents. Approximately ninety per cent of those incidents involved disruption of electoral activity by other political parties. Using verbal or physical threats the Maoists and YCL prevented a number of campaign rallies from taking place, or prevented candidates and party activists from traveling to particular village development committees (VDCs). Approximately one incident per week involved the Maoists or YCL interfering with press freedom and approximately one incident per week involved the police arresting YCL or Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) combatants with firearms. (Note: In a press briefing held April 20, Democracy and Election Alliance Nepal (DEAN),a domestic NGO partially funded by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) reported 241 incidents of pre-election violence in 51 districts. They calculated 30 people were murdered, 81 abducted, and 890 injured during that period. DEAN concluded that most, but by no means all, of the violence was instigated by the Maoists. End note.) Maoists were not only the perpetrators of violence, but had far more of their cadre killed than any other party. Election Day Violence Not as Bad as Feared -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Although election day was largely peaceful, DEAN reported four people were killed, eight abducted, and 112 injured on election day. The Election Commission decided to repoll 106 locations due to violence, booth capture, and other irregularities primarily conducted by Maoists/YCL. (Note: In addition, the EC conducted voting in Surkhet-1 on April 19 rather than April 10 due to the murder by the Nepali Congress (NC) of a UML candidate just prior to the election. End note.) Sporadic Post-Election Violence Ongoing -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The RSO report for the week of April 15-21 includes only seven incidents of political violence, four of which involve the Maoists looting, attacking, or intimidating Nepali Congress candidates and activists. The decline from 27 to 21 to 7 may be significant, but it will depend on whether this downward trend bears out over a longer period. Party contacts from the NC and UML have told Emboffs about a number of incidents of intimidation and low-level violence which have not yet been reported by the press or substantiated in detail by the parties. KATHMANDU 00000454 002 OF 002 Maoists Post-Election Statements Mostly Moderate -------------- --- ¶5. (U) Post-election statements by the Maoist leadership remain largely moderate and welcoming of better relations with the international community, including the United States (Ref A). On 14 April C.P. Gajurel, Chief of the Maoists' Foreign Department, stated that he would no longer call the U.S. imperialist and spoke in favor of friendly relations with the international community. He noted that as an opposition party the Maoists said many things, but after forming the government the Maoists would need to speak differently. On 18 April Gajurel told the press that the Maoists were not in favor of extending the mandate of the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) and not hopeful the U.S. would lift the terrorist tag soon. Maoist leader Dr. Baburam Bhattarai countered the next day that Gajurel's comments about UNMIN were not the party line (Ref B). An editorial in the 21 April issue of Janadisha, a Maoist Nepali-language daily newspaper, complained about America's silence since the election. The editorial argued that the U.S. should: accept and respect the Nepali people's opinion, improve diplomatic relations with the Maoists, and remove the terrorist tag. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Although most of the post-election violence has been small-scale, the YCL attacks on other parties' candidates and activists is troubling. Both prominent candidates and party leaders in Kathmandu have been targeted as well as local level party workers in remote districts. After years of encouragement it may well be hard for Maoist Chief Pushpa Dahal (aka Prachanda) to quickly rein in his cadre, but both the domestic and international community are pushing the Maoists to do just that. European Union and UNMIN officials report that Prachanda is aware this must be done. Continuation of the Maoist international charm offensive is welcome, but their deeds need to match their words for better relations to be secured. POWELL