NEPAL'S CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION: MAOISTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000417 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL'S CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION: MAOISTS MAINTAIN LEAD AS RESULTS COME IN REF: KATHMANDU 408 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Maoists continue to build a strong lead in day four of counting results from the April 10 Constituent Assembly election. Ninety-eight locations in 21 constituencies will repoll, potentially affecting still unknown proportional representation results. At least one observer and close Embassy contact is skeptical about generally glowing reviews the international community gave election day; a growing number of accounts of voter manipulation by the Maoists have emerged. The Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) appears to be taking the Maoist victories hardest; following the resignation of General Secretary M.K. Nepal (reftel),the UML politburo decided that the party would resign from the government. Home Minister Krishna Sitaula (Nepali Congress) and the chairman of the largest so-called "royalist" parties are among the most recent losers. Maoists Retain Lead in First-Past-the-Post -------------- ¶2. (U) As of noon on April 14, with 71 percent of the first-past-the-post counting completed, the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist has won 91 of 164 declared seats. The Nepali Congress is trailing with 27 declared seats, the UML with 23, and the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) with ¶15. Seventeen of the 19 women elected are Maoists; the other two are from the Nepali Congress and the MPRF. Many of the winning Maoist candidates who have defeated NC and UML stalwarts are relatively young, little-known personalities. The average age of all winning candidates is 44. Repolling -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Ninety-eight locations in 21 constituencies will hold repolling in the coming days, according to Election Commission spokesman Laxman Bhattarai. Peter Erben, IFES country director, told the Ambassador on April 14 that repolling is likely to display a different voting pattern than occurred on April 10 because voters have already seen nationwide results. Erben said redoing individual polling locations is unlikely to affect first-past-the-post standings but could alter the number of seats a party receives in proportional representation. Erben also noted it was too soon for proportional representation results to emerge, as less than one percent of the ballots had been counted. Observer Skeptical About Maoist Appeal -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Dominic Cardy, country director of the National Democratic Institute, told the Ambassador on April 14 that he was increasingly concerned that rosy reports from the international community regarding an election free of major violations were inaccurate. Accounts of voter manipulation in the hills and mountains continue to surface. Maoists engaged in booth capturing, forcing opposition candidates into house arrest, and intimidating supporters of other parties. Cardy, a severe critic of the Maoists, conceded that, although the Maoists placed pressure on the middle class and business community, Maoist wins in Kathmandu and the Terai probably reflected the people's will. He added that the Maoists lacked the organization to coerce voters in the Terai. Major Contests -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The UML: Almost all politburo and Central Committee members have lost their constituencies mostly to Maoists, including former Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime KATHMANDU 00000417 002 OF 002 Minister K.P. Oli in Jhapa-7 and former Home Minister Bamdev Gautam in Bardiya-1. The UML politburo decided on April 13 that the party would pull out of the current government and not join the next one. Acting General Secretary Amrit Kumar Bohara, citing his party's electoral defeat, told reporters that the UML was responding to the mandate of the people and withdrawing from the government on moral grounds. Bohara said all UML ministers plan to collectively submit their resignations when they return to Kathmandu from their constituencies. (Note: The UML holds the Ministries of Foreign Affairs; Education and Sports; Culture, Tourism, and Civil Aviation; Agriculture and Cooperatives; and General Administration. End note.) - Nepali Congress: Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula lost to Purna Prasad Rajbansi, a Maoist, in Jhapa-3. - Rastriya Prajatantra Party: Chairman Pashupati Sumsher Rana lost to Maoist candidates in both Sindhupalchowk-1 and -3. - Terai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP): Hridayesh Tripathi, former Minister of Industry, Commerce and Supplies, won in Nawalparasi-6. POWELL