NEPAL'S CA ELECTION: MAOISTS PROJECTED TO WIN A

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000416 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL'S CA ELECTION: MAOISTS PROJECTED TO WIN A PLURALITY REF: KATHMANDU 408 Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Experts Predict A Maoist Plurality -------------- ¶1. (C) Although the Maoists continue to dominate the contest for the Constituent Assembly's 240 first-past-the-post seats (FPTP),international election experts predicted to the Ambassador April 14 that the Maoist lead would not remain as large once the proportional representation (PR) seats were factored in. Assuming the voting pattern on the PR ballots is similar to that for the FPTP ballots, and using very preliminary results, the experts project the Maoists would have a plurality, but not a majority, in the 601-member Assembly. (Note: This assumption remains to be tested. End note.) Maoists Continue To Dominate First-Past-the-Post Races -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Based on the most recent official results in the Constituent Assembly's 240 FPTP races, the Maoists continue to be far in front of the other parties. As of noon (local time) on April 14, they had taken 91 of 164 declared seats. The Nepali Congress (NC) was second with 27 seats and the Communist Party of NEPAL - United Marxist Leninist was third with 23 (septel). These totals convert to the following percentages: Maoists - 55 percent; NC - 16 percent and UML - 14 percent. POWELL