NEPAL: REMOTE MID-WESTERN DISTRICT ACTIVELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KATHMANDU 000388 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: REMOTE MID-WESTERN DISTRICT ACTIVELY PREPARING FOR VOTE: AN IN-DEPTH LOOK Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell for reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During a three-day, mid-March visit to the remote hill district of Jumla in Nepal's mid-western region, Emboff found officials, parties, non-governmental organizations, and the general public actively engaged in efforts to prepare for the April 10 Constituent Assembly (CA) election. Officials did not anticipate electoral or security problems on or before election day, but others raised issues regarding voter education and possible vote-buying. Locals described the contest for the district's sole CA seat as a toss-up between the Communist Party of NEPAL - United Marxist Leninist, the Nepali Congress and the Maoists. Election Volunteers Mobilized -------------- ¶2. (C) On a March 11 to 13 visit to Jumla bazaar, the capital of Jumla district and the Karnali zone, in Nepal's mid-western region, District Election Officer (DEO) Ram Bahadur Shahi expressed pleasure that preparations for the April 10 Constituent Assembly (CA) election were going well and optimism that all would proceed as planned. He described how his office and District Education Officer (DEdO) Jeevan Bhandari had identified 60 local teacher volunteers (one man and one woman) to visit the district's 30 Village Development Committee (VDC) areas. Shahi said that the volunteers had recently received two days of training on the nature of the CA, the importance of a new constitution, the difference between this election and the last parliamentary election, the difference between the two ballots voters would receive, and how to properly mark the ballots. Following the training, all of the volunteers returned to their respective VDCs to distribute election "invitation cards" in the name of the eldest voter in the household. In addition to Shahi's permanent election staff, two UN Mission in NEPAL representatives were present in Jumla to observe the election process. Jumla Bazaar Voters Would Be Ready -------------- ¶3. (C) The Secretary of Chandan Nath VDC, which includes Jumla bazaar, told Emboff that he was confident voters would understand the purpose of the election by polling day. He said that all the residents of his village understood that the constitution-drafting process would likely take about two years. An election volunteer had already visited him and his family, had given them their invitation card, and had discussed aspects of the election process. When asked if whole villages would likely support certain candidates, he explained that it was rare for all the inhabitants of a village to support one candidate exclusively. Most villages included supporters of at least two or three candidates or parties, even if most residents favored a single candidate. Others Less Sanguine -------------- ¶4. (C) Jumla's Local Development Officer (LDO) Krishna Chandra Ghimire said that only approximately 36 percent of Jumla's residents were literate (approximately 45 percent of men and only 17 percent of women). With literacy rates that low, the election pamphlets being distributed around the district would have limited effectiveness. DEdO Bhandari explained that selecting the appropriate 60 teachers from the ranks of Jumla's 580 teachers had proven difficult. Teachers were the most politically active of all those in government service, and every single teacher was affiliated with one of the political parties. Therefore, none of those going house to house to educate the public were non-partisan. Kantika Sejuwal, co-founder of the Nari Kalyan Kendra (Women Welfare KATHMANDU 00000388 002 OF 005 Center),a local non-governmental organization (NGO), expressed outright pessimism that very many voters in villages outside the district center would know the purpose of the election by election day. She stated that even women who lived fairly close to the center had told her that they did not know why the election was being held. Based on her recent experience, she said it would be nearly impossible to adequately educate the voting public about the importance of the polls in the time remaining. Chief District Officer Not Expecting Security Problems -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Jumla Chief District Officer (CDO) Bal Bahadur Malla told Emboff March 11 that he did not expect problems to erupt between the parties before or during the elections: "We know who the troublemakers are, so we are keeping our eyes on them and don't think they can disrupt the elections." He described an event several weeks previously that could have been politically motivated, but was really a personal disagreement between two drunk men. The incident had occurred in a village in Jumla's western Sinja River valley when a member of the Communist Party of NEPAL - Maoist (CPN-M) and a member of the NEPAL Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP) became intoxicated, argued about their respective party stances and then began fighting. One was seriously injured and had to be taken to Nepalgunj for treatment. Malla said that overall party candidates and volunteers had been cooperative with district officials and so far were civil with each other. To reduce arguments between party faithfuls, the district had enacted a stricter policy on public drunkenness, assessing fines and placing violators in jail to sober up. District Police Superintendent Also Optimistic -------------- - ¶6. (C) Jumla's District Superintendent of Police (DSP) Rajendra Kumar Thapa was also optimistic that the election would proceed in Jumla violence-free. He had met with candidates and other party leaders several times to discuss security, and although he did not foresee any danger to candidates, he had provided security for each of the candidates. If increased security for any of the candidates became necessary, he said he would provide it. Thapa related that Maoist supporters had put pressure in the fall on the principal of the local Karnali Technical School to accept a handful of their children as additional students. The principal had explained that the capacity of the school had been met and that the students unfortunately had not made the cutoff. Dissatisfied, the Maoists took the principal and other teachers and marched them from the school to the bazaar, after having blackened their faces with charcoal and hung a necklace of shoes around each person's neck. Expecting to embarrass the teachers and send a message, the Maoists were surprised when bazaar locals began to attack the Maoists. DSP Thapa chuckled when he said that he was now providing security for the CPN-M. As a side note, Thapa mentioned that his police contingent had formed a street-drama team that was ready to deploy across the district to contribute to voter education and awareness. He said that the group had already performed once in the district center. Voting Booth Nuts and Bolts -------------- ¶7. (U) According to the DEO, Jumla district will have a total of 89 voting booths open on election day, including four special booths in the district center for: 1) members of the NEPAL Army, 2) police officers, 3) government officials not deployed to village voting booths, and 4) eligible voters who are currently in jail. Voting booth teams will consist of approximately 15 individuals, including three government employees, seven or eight police officers, half of whom will KATHMANDU 00000388 003 OF 005 be temporary police hired and trained specifically for the election (233 district-wide, not assigned to their home VDC), and four or five volunteers. Voting officials estimate that it will take at least one full day after polls close at 5:00 p.m. on April 10 to bring all the ballot boxes to the district center. Immediately following the closing of the polls, it will likely be necessary for the more remote booth teams to meet up with other teams in the area to co-locate their ballot boxes, thereby increasing security for the night before making the trip to the district center in the morning on April 11. No polling boxes will be opened for vote counting until the boxes from all polling booths have arrived at the district center's election returns office, located at the LDO office compound. Candidates on the Road -------------- ¶8. (U) Jumla has candidates from ten parties competing for Jumla's sole CA seat, although according to most observers only four parties have sufficient support to be considered competitive. The weakest of the four is believed to be the small, leftist NWPP, but it still may get as much as ten to 15 percent of the vote. The other three competitive parties -- Communist Party of NEPAL - United Marxist Leninist (UML), Nepali Congress (NC),and Maoists -- are estimated to have fairly equal support in the district, so must observers think it will be a tight race. CDO Malla mentioned that there was some evidence that UML was losing some support to the CPN-M, primarily because the UML campaign was poorly run and supporters had lost confidence in the party. (Note: At the time of Emboff's visit, all candidates were campaigning at some distance away from the district center. Due to travel time it was not possible to meet with any candidates.) Vote-Buying Reported -------------- ¶9. (C) Purna Prasad Dhital, a resident of Boragaun village, directly across the Tila River from the district center, reported to Emboff that the NWPP candidate is popular among voters in many of the villages, most of whose residents are poor farmers, even though the party itself does not have many resources compared to the three major parties Dhital reported that he was aware of vote-buying, primarily by NC, whose supporters are concentrated in the district center and where most of the district's wealth is located, and to a lesser extent by UML. He said that many voters are so poor and desperate for cash that they will sell their vote to the highest bidder for as little as 200-300 rupees (USD $3-$5). He claimed to have heard that NC was giving voters up to 1,000 rupees (USD $17) for their support. Code of Conduct Enforced -------------- ¶10. (C) Election Returning Officer (and Jumla district court judge) Ananta Raj Dumre told Emboff that he and DEO Shahi had met with candidates and other party representatives recently to discuss the election code of conduct and each party's responsibility to follow its guidelines. All parties had agreed to follow the code and rectify any violations as they were identified. Examples of violations seen in Jumla were party flags and campaign posters displayed that were larger than allowed, campaign banners displayed in the bazaar area, and wall painting with partisan political messages. Within days of the meeting, election officials noted that parties had taken care of the first two types of violations, but very few of the wall paintings had been covered over. (Note: Emboff noticed that nearly all of the wall painting appeared to be several years old. Most messages had been painted by the Maoists, although there was also wall painting near the bazaar in support of NC and UML.) Judge Dumre expected that it would take the parties a few days more to procure paint and paint over the messages. KATHMANDU 00000388 004 OF 005 Local Radio Publicizes Election -------------- ¶11. (U) Jumla's community-owned FM radio station, Karnali FM, which is in its third year of operation, recently increased its air time from six hours to ten hours daily, allowing for more air time for election-related content among its usual news, music, and social programs. The 100-watt station is reportedly able to reach 30 VDCs in the area (22 in Jumla and two each in neighboring Kalikot, Mugu, Dolpa, and Jajarkot districts). The station broadcasts voter education programs sent from Kathmandu and also develops some programming locally. Station officials told Emboff that when the candidates returned from their campaigning in the villages, the station would begin a series of five programs with a pair of candidates on each show. This would provide a forum for debate and allow each candidate to have an equal amount of time to present his party's vision for the CA. Station officials said that candidates would not be able to purchase air time or campaign on the air outside of the programs the station presents. The station's role was to remain neutral and focus on educating the public about the CA elections. Karnali FM boasts a USAID-provided, 2,080-watt solar panel that generates electricity and charges a bank of batteries, allowing the station to carry on programming even when the bazaar's nearest hydropower plant causes fluctuations in the voltage or goes out altogether. Karnali Autonomous Region Popular -------------- ¶12. (C) LDO Ghimire reported that the idea of an autonomous zone in the greater Karnali region, consisting not only of the current Karnali Zone's five districts but reaching east, south, and west to include up to 12 districts, has gained in popularity among the parties. He said that the candidates were campaigning for such a region, making the argument that, "We should make our own decisions for the region and take our future into our own hands." Ghimire pointed out, that though people are moved by this rhetoric, they did not really have an understanding of what this meant in terms of development. Party leaders claimed that if they worked together, they could lobby Kathmandu more effectively for resources and change the central policy for the benefit of the region and its inhabitants. But the LDO noted that Karnali had a persistent food and resource deficit and little leverage over the central government. "How can such a dependent region survive as an autonomous zone?" Ghimire asked. Women Voters But No Women Candidates -------------- ¶13. (C) Women Welfare Center co-founder Luna Chaulagain said that the biggest issue for women in Jumla was domestic violence resulting from men drinking too much. She stated that members of her center and women with whom they work had looked for support from government officials, including the police, as well as party leaders to address this problem, but no one had paid them much attention. She said members of the center had been looking forward to supporting a woman candidate in the election, but the two women who had considered running decided in the end not to. When asked if women felt the freedom to vote independently from their husbands or other family members, Chaulagain remarked that most women did not understand the election very well. Throughout Jumla women would likely listen to hear who their husbands and families were supporting and vote the same way. Co-founder Kantika Sejuwal, an NC supporter, responded that even though she had not been entirely satisfied with the way the NC leadership had conducted party business at the top, she did not see any alternative to voting for NC. A Glimpse of Mountain Districts Beyond Jumla -------------- KATHMANDU 00000388 005 OF 005 ¶14. (C) Ministry of Education consultant Uttam Upadhyay arrived in Jumla March 11 to conduct a seminar on local school management, after having conducted similar seminars in four Far Western and Mid Western districts, including Doti, Achham, Bajura, and Mugu. Based on discussions with locals in those hill districts, Upadhyay was of the view that the Election Commission and the parties were not doing an adequate job educating voters about the purpose of the election and the work representatives would be elected to perform. Candidates were setting the voters up for disappointment by failing to explain to voters that the CA's new members would be focused on drafting the constitution, not delivering development projects to their respective constituencies as after past elections. (Note: The Assembly will also serve as Nepal's parliament, but the focus is expected to be on the constitution. End note.) Upadhyay said that voters in several places had expressed nervousness about what the Maoists might do to disrupt the polls and how they might carry through with threats to voters after the voting. Those he spoke with who were better informed about the election expressed concern that very few of the candidates had legal backgrounds or experience in constitutional law. He stated that plenty of voices would lobby for their own party's interests, but few would be able to translate those party positions into the proper constitutional framework. Lingering Support For the King -------------- ¶15. (C) DSP Thapa told Emboff that he thought there was still room for the king in Nepali society. The monarchy as an institution still retained popularity among the people, he said. Echoing the DSP's assertion, Ganesh Chaulagain, teacher trainer at the district's Educational Training Center, said it was unjust that a small vocal minority of Nepal's citizens had spoken out against the king, making it seem that the country as a whole did not want the monarchy to continue. In reality, he said, the silent majority wanted to retain the monarchy in some form. He pointed to other monarchies around the world that had successfully modernized and said that Nepal's could do the same. He stressed that the king was a cultural symbol that reminded Nepali citizens how the country was unified under King Prithvi Narayan Shah. Chaulagain expressed disappointment in moves by several ethnic groups to push for autonomous regions around the country, saying that abolishing the office of the king removed a unifying force in the country. Comment -------------- ¶16. (C) Jumla district's small capital sits at 7,400 feet, approximately 210 miles west northwest of Kathmandu and seemingly much farther from the home of most of Nepal's elite and the country's key decisionmakers. On April 10, Jumla's voters will select only one of the 240 first-past-the-post seats in the Constituent Assembly election. But the district's challenges and hopes as the election approaches are similar to those of many hill and mountain districts in Nepal's remote Mid and Far West. If this election and the forthcoming constitution are to begin to establish the basis for a strong democracy, they will not only have to accommodate the residents of Nepal's cities and its populous Terai. They will also need to take the views of the people of Jumla and the broader Karnali region into account. POWELL