NEPAL'S CA ELECTION: MOMENTUM BUILDING WITH 31

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000274 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL'S CA ELECTION: MOMENTUM BUILDING WITH 31 DAYS TO GO REF: KATHMANDU 243 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Randy W. Berry. Reasons 1.4 (b/ d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) chief MK Nepal told the Ambassador March 10 that he expected the UML to win a plurality of the Constituent Assembly's 240 first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats. He thought the UML should get the Prime Minister position. Meanwhile, on March 6 Madhesi parties filed separate candidacies for the FPTP seats. It was apparent they had been unable to reach a deal to not contest against each other and that they were willing to take on prominent candidates from the Nepali Congress. Campaign activity is increasing gradually, particularly by FPTP candidates. Preparations by the Election Commission continue to face challenges but are still on track. Security remains a potential problem. UML General Secretary Expects To Prevail -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting March 10 with the Ambassador, Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) General Secretary MK Nepal predicted that his party would win a SIPDIS plurality of the Constituent Assembly's 240 first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats. On that basis, he expected that the UML would be asked by the other parties to provide the next Prime Minister. He said that it would be necessary, however, for the three major parties -- the Nepali Congress (NC),the Maoists and the UML -- to work together after the election. Nepal complained that he and Maoist chief Pushpa Dahal (aka Prachanda) had struggled in their effort to reach agreements in the past with Prime Minister (and NC President) G.P. Koirala because Koirala was unable to make any decisions. He said he planned to wait this time for the Prime Minister to come to him. The UML General Secretary also noted that he expected many of the NC's traditional voters in the Terai would end up on election day casting their ballots for the NC, not the Madhesi parties, which were too divided. He added as well that he expected Prachanda to lose in the Kathmandu 10 constituency. (Note: The Maoist chief is also contesting for a seat in Rolpa district, in the former Maoist heartland. End note.) First-Past-the-Post Candidacies Filed on Schedule -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) On March 6 the three Madhesi parties in the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) filed first-past-the-post candidacies for the April 10 election. The filing by the UDMF parties and a few others which had opted out until the GON-UDMF deal was signed (reftel) reinforced the positive electoral mood. According to information made public by the Election Commission, the three parties in the UDMF were not able to come to an agreement and filed multiple candidacies in the same constituencies. For example, Rajendra Mahato of the Sadbhavana Party faces challengers from both the other two parties in the UDMF. Some Madhesi leaders also filed against prominent NC candidates. Bijay Gachchhedar, formerly NC but now with the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF), filed against the Prime Minister's nephew Shekhar Koirala. MPRF leader Upendra Yadav filed in Sunsari-5 against the Prime Minister's daughter Sujata Koirala and Morang-5 against another Koirala relative, Amrit Aryal. Sujata Koirala told Emboff March 7 that she was disappointed with Yadav's filing against her and Aryal since NC and MPRF would waste effort fighting against each other rather than cooperating in Sunsari and Morang districts. She alleged that a number of people, including someone from another faction of the NC, had paid Yadav to file in her constituency in Sunsari. KATHMANDU 00000274 002 OF 003 Campaign Activity Increasing -------------- ¶4. (C) In a briefing on March 6, Carter Center long-term-observers (LTOs) reported an increase in campaign activity throughout the country. Candidates, both individually and with others from their district, have begun to hold rallies and open campaign offices. Ramesh Chandra Poudel, UML Morang District Committee Secretariat member, told Emboff March 5 that the UML would not form a campaign alliance with other parties, a message also conveyed publicly by senior UML leaders in Kathmandu. Poudel was optimistic about the UML's chances, and saw the UML as having the lead in five of the nine constituencies in Morang. He expected a two-to-three-week door-to-door pamphleting activity to begin within days. Poudel's attention was almost exclusively on FPTP candidates, with little attention to strategy or activities by candidates on the proportional list. Arjun Prasad Joshi, NC candidate in Parbat-1 (Western Region), reported to National Democratic Institute's (NDI) Country Representative Dominic Cardy that he had also started door-to-door campaigning and that NC was cooperating with the UML in the district to counter Maoist disruptions. As Are Election Commission Preparations -------------- ¶5. (C) As of March 8 the state printer Janak had printed 7 million proportional ballots and it has increased capacity to print 1.5 million ballots per day. IFES Representative Peter Erben informed the Ambassador early on March 7 that the schedule to print and distribute ballots in time is tight, but later on March 7 the Election Commission decided that Janak was meeting production targets and it did not need to move to operating under contingency plans. Printing of first-past-the post ballots is scheduled to start March 10. Erben referred to the logistical issues as a challenge, not a crisis. District Election Officers (DEOs) in Lalitpur and Morang recently told Emboffs that voter education volunteers are active in their districts and have been able to conduct trainings without disruption. Training of election officials began March 10 and will continue for two weeks. The DEO of Morang reported to Emboff that he viewed compliance with the Electoral Code of Conduct as the main challenge he faced and had conducted a training session on the Code for political parties, journalists, and civil society organizations. However, some Madhesi and Maoist graffiti have not been covered up as required by the Code. Security Still an Issue -------------- ¶6. (C) Isabela Khadka, wife of NC candidate Narayan Khadka (Udayapur-1),reported to Emboff March 8 that even with visible police escort Maoists had stoned a convoy of candidates filing on February 25 and, despite the GON-UDMF agreement, the security situation was still quite poor in Udayapur in the eastern hills. Jenny Anderson, a Carter Center LTO covering the western Terai, reported that many candidates are not confident that Government-provided security will be adequate. Despite claims from police and political leaders in Kathmandu that enough temporary security forces have been recruited for the election, Morang Chief District Officer Madhav Regmi admitted that with only 600 applications on hand they were well below the targeted recruitment of 1700. The recruitment deadline had been extended one week, but that was unlikely to bring numbers up sufficiently. Both NDI and Carter Center LTOs report an increase in disruptive activities by Maoists throughout the country and Dominic Cardy stated March 8 that Maoists have apparently been extending their booth capture training. Various police contacts in the Nepal Police (NP) and Armed Police Force (APF) told Emboffs in recent days that their attention and resources were already diverted from crime prevention and border control to the election, even though KATHMANDU 00000274 003 OF 003 they were not yet that active with election related security plans. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) UML General Secretary MK Nepal's optimism about the UML's electoral prospects seems well-placed. Most observers are convinced his party will win the most votes on April 10, although who forms the next Nepali Government will depend on coalition politics, as the General Secretary admitted. Meanwhile, the reduction in tensions brought about by the recent GON-UDMF agreement has proved to have some durability. Candidates, political party leaders, and election officials all report that for the first time they believe the election will be held on April 10. Fida Nasrallah, Chief Election Advisor for United Nation Mission in Nepal (UNMIN),told Emboff March 8 that she was now optimistic the election would go forward, but still quite concerned about the extent to which it would be free and fair. While post still believes that no party wants to be seen as responsible for the postponement or cancellation of the election, preventing booth capture and promoting accurate counting and acceptance of results remain serious challenges. We are mindful as well that the exclusion of many adults from the voting rolls or other issues may be raised at the last minute, particularly by the Maoists. POWELL