NEPAL ELECTION UPDATE: MADHESIS REJECT GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000217 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL ELECTION UPDATE: MADHESIS REJECT GOVERNMENT DEAL REF: KATHMANDU 213 Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) A deal between the Government of Nepal (GON) and the agitating United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) foundered in the early hours of February 25 over the Madhesi demand that the GON enshrine a Madhesi state in the Interim Constitution. UDMF leaders, including one who was flown in from the Terai for the last round of talks, also insisted the Constituent Assembly election be postponed from April until May. Two minor parties took advantage of the new February 24 deadline to file their proportional candidate lists. At close of business on February 25, the filing of candidacies for the 240 first-past-the-post seats, including in constituencies in the Terai, appears to have taken place, in spite of the ongoing Terai general strike. GON Accepts "Madesh Pradesh," but Deal Still Elusive -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) After nine days of on and off talks, negotiations between the Government of Nepal (GON) and Madhesi leaders from the three-party United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) foundered in the early hours of February 25 over two points. The first sticking point was how the GON would express its commitment to autonomy for Madhesis, the second concerned the date of the Constituent Assembly (CA) election. Dr. Shekhar Koirala, Nepali Congress (NC) Central Committee Member and Prime Minister Koirala's nephew, and Sarvendra Shukla, senior leader of the UDMF's Terai Madesh Democratic Party (TMDF),separately told Emboffs February 25 that, the GON had ultimately consented to include the Madhesi demand of "One Madesh, One Pradesh (one Madesh, one state)," in the signed political agreement. The GON had also committed to amend the election law by ordinance to raise the threshold to 30 percent for applying the quotas for the proportional (PR) candidate lists. Koirala and Shukla explained, however, that the UDMF had insisted that the Interim Constitution had to be amended to include reference to a Madesh state. In addition, the Madhesis had demanded the election be delayed from April until May in order to give the UDMF parties sufficient time to prepare candidate lists and organize for the polls. MPRF Leader Flown to Kathmandu to No Avail -------------- ¶3. (C) Anil Jha, General Secretary of the UDMF's Sadbhavana Party (SP),stated to Emboff February 25 that the SP's Vice President, Laxman Lal Karna, had tracked down the UDMF's Madhesi People's Rights Forum Nepal (MPRF) chief Upendra Yadav in person near Birgunj on February 24. Karna had accompanied Yadav to Kathmandu on the evening of February 24, reportedly on a Nepal Army helicopter, in order to attend the late night talks with the GON. Jha added that Yadav had been among the most vocal of the UDMF leaders in insisting on a constitutional amendment and an election delay. The SP General Secretary conceded that his party had been inclined to sign the proffered agreement and had been very disappointed when the talks broke down. He said the SP was now considering its options, including whether or not to break ranks with its partner parties in the UDMF. Submission of Candidates Continues -------------- ¶4. (C) Although the agitating UDMF parties did not take advantage of the new deadline and file PR candidate lists at the Election Commission (EC) on February 24, two small parties did. This brought the total number of parties which have filed to 39. On February 25, candidate papers for the CA's 240 first-past-the-post seats had to be KATHMANDU 00000217 002 OF 002 delivered. In light of ongoing transportation difficulties due to the UDMF-called general strike in the Terai -- in its 13th day -- the EC announced on February 24 that it was using its statutory authority to permit candidates to submit their nominations by fax to the respective Returning Officers in the districts. Observers expected the NC, the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist, the Maoists and a handful of other parties to file candidates for all of the open seats. Dr. Koirala admitted to Emboff that Deputy Speaker of the Interim Parliament Chitraleka Yadav (NC) had been considering not contesting out of solidarity with the Madhesi protests, but had been persuaded by the Prime Minister to reconsider. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Post is disappointed that, in the end, the agitating United Democratic Madhesi Front chose not to accept the proffered deal after the Nepali Government had essentially accepted all of its principal demands. In our view, it was extremely shortsighted of the UDMF to insist on a constitutional amendment and a delay in the election. While neither would have been impossible, a third postponement of the Constituent Assembly election would have caused considerable damage to Nepal's fragile democratic transition and might have easily incited a hostile Maoist reaction. It is not surprising therefore that the GON appears to have decided, at least for now, to go ahead with the April 10 election without the agitating Madhesi groups. In addition, the GON is under pressure not to concede further. Indeed, on February 24, the largest of the non-Madhesi ethnic nationalities in the Terai, the Tharus, began a protest program in the capital and the Terai against the Madhesi demand for a single Madhes state. Other indigenous nationalities also oppose the Madhesi demand. Based on reports from half a dozen Terai districts, at close of business on February 25, the filing of candidacies for the first-past-the-post seats appears to have taken place, in spite of the ongoing Terai general strike. POWELL