NEPAL: CA ELECTION UPDATE: 59 DAYS TO GO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000181 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER EAID KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: CA ELECTION UPDATE: 59 DAYS TO GO Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Randy W. Berry. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Constituent Assembly election preparations continued as the Election Commission, the police and the political parties worked to finalize the roles they would play. The Maoist Young Communist League (YCL) attacked a senior Nepali Congress leader, and Prime Minister Koirala responded by ordering a crackdown on YCL sites in Kathmandu. On February 5, Maoist leaders announced the revival of their United Revolutionary People's Council to address the problems of the general public. Meanwhile, three Madhesi political parties formed a united front. Nepalis across the country expressed varying levels of awareness -- and pessimism -- about the election. Election Commission Wants Solutions -------------- ¶2. (U) On February 10, Chief Election Commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokharel reportedly gave a three-day ultimatum to the governing Six-Party Alliance and the Maoists to settle outstanding political and security issues, including in the Terai, so the Election Commission (EC) could make the necessary preparations for the April 10 Constituent Assembly (CA) election. During the same meeting with the Interim Parliament's CA Election Management Monitoring Committee, Pokharel announced he expected the EC to have first-past-the-post results within one week of the polls and proportional representation results within three weeks. Also on February 10, the cabinet appointed two Supreme Court Justices to make up the CA Court, which will serve as the final court of appeal for all election disputes. The District Election Officer for Kathmandu, Bishnu Bhusal, told Emboff February 11 that he hoped to have the results from Kathmandu's 10 constituencies within 24 hours. Police Preparing for Deployment -------------- ¶3. (C) According to post's acting Senior Law Enforcement Adviser (SLEA),the Nepal Police (NP) have officially begun recruiting 56,000 bonded (temporary) police for election deployment. The NP plan is to have three to 21 bonded police at each polling station. The NP also plan to have three to seven regular officers at each station, along with mobile police teams, Armed Police Force (APF) strike teams, and NP reserve officers available in strategic locations. All together there should be 56,064 NP and 42,048 APF. The NP will accept applications through February 26 and make selections by March 7. A one-month appointment will begin on March 16, with 15 days of training followed by deployment on or around April 1. The Superintendent of Police in Pokhara told the SLEA recently that, during the previous preparations for a November election, Pokhara police headquarters had received only 75 applications for 600 bonded positions. YCL Attack Prompts PM To Launch Police Crackdown -------------- --- ¶4. (C) On February 5, Young Communist League cadres attacked an election mass meeting of Nepali Congress Central Committee member and former Minister of Communication Dilendra Badu, who was campaigning in Darchula district in northwestern Nepal. Badu reportedly sought shelter in a house, which the Young Communist League found and set on fire. Badu escaped with a cracked hip which will require several months to heal. Prime Minister Koirala responded by personally ordering police raids on Young Communist League (YCL) sites around Kathmandu on February 6 and 7. The National Democratic Institute's (NDI) Acting Country Representative told Emboffs a cabinet minister privately confirmed that the Prime Minister had issued the instruction to newly appointed State Minister for Home Affairs Ram Kumar Chaudhury, circumventing Home Minister Krishna Sitaula. The NDI representative added KATHMANDU 00000181 002 OF 003 that Koirala and crew had pre-planned the raids and had been waiting for an excuse to carry them out -- which the Darchula attack provided. In Other Maoist News: URPC Revived -------------- ¶5. (U) The Maoists on February 6 announced the revival of the United Revolutionary People's Council (URPC),which was responsible for overseeing the Maoists' "People's Governments" until the Maoists agreed to abolish those parallel structures after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Accord in November 2006. According to the Maoist press release, deputy Maoist chief Baburam Bhattarai was to lead the URPC. Communication Minister Krishna Mahara and Local Development Minister Dev Gurung were to serve as joint coordinators. The URPC was to "work towards resolving people's problems" but "not carry out any activities like that of a parallel government." Nevertheless, the Maoist announcement was widely criticized by the parties and UN Mission in Nepal chief Ian Martin commented that any attempt to revive the "People's Governments" would be a clear violation of the Maoists' commitments. Madhesis Unite -------------- ¶6. (C) On February 10, Upendra Yadav of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF),Rajendra Mahato of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP),and Mahantha Thakur of the Terai-Madesh Democratic Party inaugurated the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF). The MPRF and NSP had formed the two-party United Madhesi Front in December 2007. The UDMF announced six demands, including the guarantee of an autonomous Terai state and proportional representation for marginalized groups in all government organizations, including the Nepal Army. The Front's leaders said they would hold protests and strikes and hinted they might disrupt the election if their demands were unmet. Three days earlier, on February 7, Yadav had told Emboffs the MPRF had not decided to boycott the election, but Madhesi demands had to be fulfilled before an election could take place. He said his party would not submit candidate lists or further prepare for an election. During the meeting, Yadav sharply criticized the CA provision that requires parties that field candidates for more than 20 percent of the 335 proportional seats to meet all of the quotas for various groups. Yadav complained that the provision was discriminatory and intended to limit the seats that regional parties such as the MPRF could win. (Note: IFES informed Emboff February 11 that changing the law now -- when proportional candidate lists are due on February 20 -- to effectively allow the MPRF to field only Madhesis, while forcing larger parties to field a significant number of Madhesis as well, would be impractical and unreasonable. End note.) Building Awareness in the Terai -------------- ¶7. (U) A USAID officer traveling in the Terai town of Bhairahawa in Rupandehi district and nearby Palpa district in western Nepal the week of February 4 observed enthusiasm for the CA election but little conviction that it would occur. There were limited indications of campaigning -- Maoist graffiti and the occasional Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) symbol. Interlocutors explained there was no campaigning outside of district headquarters because of fear of Maoist intimidation or reprisals. People in community groups were highly aware of the CA election and appreciated training USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives had provided regarding peace agreements and the CA process. Community members viewed the election as probably the only way groups such as women, Madhesis, and janajatis could obtain representation in the government. However, most people said there was only a 50/50 chance of the CA election occurring and did not have a clear answer about what would happen if there were no election. KATHMANDU 00000181 003 OF 003 Less Hope Elsewhere -------------- ¶8. (U) Interdisciplinary Analysts (IDA),pollsters working in partnership with the Asia Foundation, conducted a nationwide survey in December and January that revealed less general awareness and optimism about the CA election. According to IDA, 67 percent of respondents had heard of the CA election; of those, only 22 percent believed the election would occur by June. (Note: The survey queried public opinion before the GON announced the April 10 election date. End note.) Fewer than one-third were aware of various electoral systems under discussion. Fifty percent of those polled wanted a role for the monarchy. Overall, the survey indicated a mismatch between issues the political parties were squabbling over -- a federal state, proportional representation, etc. -- and issues important to local communities, primarily poverty, rising prices, and unemployment. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Senior representatives from the Nepali Congress and the UML insist publicly and privately to us that that the Constituent Assembly election must take place on April 10. Until very recently, however, the UML and the opposition and formerly monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) of Pashupati Rana, which placed third in the 1999 general elections, appeared to be the only parties which wholeheartedly wanted it to happen. The UML concluded a nearly weeklong Central Committee meeting on February 10 by approving its election manifesto and ruling out the possibility of a single Madhes province. After a long hiatus, the NC finally scheduled a Central Committee meeting of its own on February 11 to agree on its election program. The Prime Minister's crackdown on the YCL may be a further sign of NC seriousness -- or evidence that it is seeking to provoke YCL and Maoists into actions that would imperil the election. Meanwhile, however, non-GON interlocutors remain highly skeptical that an election will take place and have begun to question whether an unfree and unfair election is in fact better than no election at all. And as the Election Commission's February 13 deadline (the end of the current Nepali month) highlights, even assuming the Maoist leadership reigns in YCL abuses (which we consider unlikely),with less than two months to go, the Madhesis remain perhaps the biggest wildcard. BERRY