NEPAL: CA ELECTION UPDATE: 73 DAYS TO GO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000111 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EAID PTER IN NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: CA ELECTION UPDATE: 73 DAYS TO GO Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Less than eleven weeks before the Constituent Assembly election scheduled for April 10, the Election Commission continues its preparations. Meanwhile, the Government of Nepal (GON) has given sitting Members of Parliament a distinct advantage. The Six-Party Alliance and the Maoists are preparing to wrap up their series of seven joint rallies amidst Madhesi strikes across the Terai. India has demonstrated once again its willingness to contribute to the election effort by donating considerable equipment for election security, and the national student unions plan their own election in February. Meanwhile, many Nepalis -- particularly among the young -- continue to doubt the election will take place. Official Election Preparations Continue -------------- ¶2. (U) According to the UN Mission in Nepal's Electoral Assistance Office, the Election Commission (EC) is scheduled to complete its review of the 13 new parties that have applied for registration -- on top of the 61 already registered -- by January 29. The EC has submitted a budget of Rs. 2.73 billion (USD 43 million) for the Constituent Assembly (CA) election to the Finance Ministry. This does not include the security costs. The Commission has identified 9,801 polling locations, including 20,882 polling centers. Voter education and training materials have been revised and are ready for printing. The design of the ballot papers is nearing completion. The EC has sent a formal invitation via the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the diplomatic community encouraging expatriate Embassy staff to observe the election. The EC's meeting with donors on January 23, which was canceled because of the "bandh" (general strike) in Kathmandu over the latest petroleum product price hikes (since reversed),has yet to be rescheduled. Sitting Members of Parliament Get Handout -------------- ¶3. (C) In early January, the Six-Party Alliance and the Maoists agreed to allocate each of the 329 Members of the Interim Parliament (MPs) one million rupees (almost USD 16,000) to fund development projects in their home constituencies. Bharat Mohan Adhikari, a senior Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) MP and former �00A;Finance Minister, explained that the money would go from the Finance Ministry to the District Development Committees (DDC). The individual members of Parliament could then direct the DDCs to spend the money on particular projects. Narhari Baral, the Local Development Officer (LDO) of Banke District, and Raj Kishore Shah, the acting LDO of Dhanusha District, told Emboff that the money could fund only those projects proposed to the DDC before the Electoral Code of Conduct took effect on January 16. The cabinet decision has been widely criticized as unethical. Although some parties have complained that this ploy will give incumbent candidates an unfair advantage and cost the GON 329 million rupees (USD 5.2 million),none of the parliamentary parties have rejected the funds. When Ambassador questioned the expenditure at a recent donor meeting at which the GON was requesting electing funding assistance, Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat replied that the Government of Nepal (GON) had planned for the expense in the budget and that the timing before the CA election was "a coincidence." A court case has been filed against this move and the EC may still rule it violates the Code of Conduct. Mass Election Rallies Wrapping Up -------------- ¶4. (C) Six-Party Alliance and Maoist mass election rallies KATHMANDU 00000111 002 OF 003 continued January 28 with the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party-organized gathering in Nepalgunj, in the midwestern Terai. The rally proceeded despite a bandh by the extremist Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha ("People's Terai Liberation Front"),Jwala Singh faction. Bhola Mahat, the Informal Sector Service Center regional coordinator for Nepalgunj, reported to Emboff that one person has been arrested for carrying a pistol, but there has been no violence amidst tight security -- in contrast to the People's Front Nepal-organized rally in Janakpur, in central Terai, on January 26, in which 60 Madhesi protesters were injured in scuffles with police. Mahat said there were approximately 20,000 people at the gathering in Nepalgunj, double the turnout of the Nepali Congress-organized kickoff rally in Kathmandu on January 14, and two-thirds the number in Janakpur. The United Left Front is to host the last of the seven multi-party rallies in Birgunj in central Terai on January 30. India Supports Election Security -------------- ¶5. (C) On January 25, on the eve of India's Republic Day, Indian Ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee presented Home Minister Krishna Sitaula donated equipment from the Government of India (GOI) in support of election security. The equipment included 1,200 four-wheel-drive vehicles, 14,000 mobile and portable communications devices, and 6.8 tons of food staples to support over 120,000 personnel deployed to polling stations. According to the Home Ministry, the GON plans to deploy: 40,000 Nepal Police; 22,000 Armed Police Force; and 67,000 other temporary personnel who will receive security training beforehand. Each polling station would have an average of 28 security personnel. Indian Political Counselor Shambu Kumaran confirmed to Emboff January 28 that the GOI was committed to providing whatever equipment the Nepali security forces needed for the election. Student Election May Foreshadow CA Election -------------- ¶6. (C) Pradip Paudel, the President of the Nepali Congress-affiliated Nepali Students Union, informed Emboffs January 23 that he was focused on Tribhuvan University's (TU's) biannual Free Student Union (FSU) election scheduled for February 28. TU is Nepal's largest university and has affiliated colleges across the country. The Maoist-affiliated All Nepal National Independent Students Union - Revolutionary (ANNISU-R) previously had demanded that the national student organization adopt a proportional election system. The FSU declined to change its procedures or convene a council meeting to amend its bylaws on short notice. After initial uncertainty, the ANNISU-R now appears eager to contest elections. ANNISU-R president Lekh Nath Neupane told press reporters recently that his party takes the FSU election seriously because it is just a month before the CA election. Other politically-affiliated student wings have begun sending their respective representatives to the districts to campaign for the FSU poll. Comment: The vote may be a bellwether for the CA election if the national sentiment mirrors that of mobilized students. Some commentators believe campus violence could lead to another general election postponement. Young Leaders Skeptical About Election, Share Vision for Nepal -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Cynicism toward the CA election and Nepalese politics generally is rife among young, educated residents of Kathmandu. On January 10, Emboffs hosted a roundtable for students and leaders of social empowerment organizations -- all in their mid-twenties to early thirties, some non-partisan -- to gain insight into issues facing Nepal from a youth perspective. They complained that an election in April is unlikely, and that the Six-Party Alliance is now an abstract concept without a coherent plan for the way ahead. KATHMANDU 00000111 003 OF 003 (Note: This roundtable took place before the announcement of the April 10 election date, but post suspects little has changed to alter this opinion. End note.) Rajendra Mulmi, President of the Association of Youth Organizations Nepal and a program manager for Search for Common Ground, said the Jana Andolan (People's Movement") in April 2006 demonstrated the power of youth in Nepal. Two years later, the same youth have very low expectations because the interim government has not engaged them in post-conflict policymaking. Mulmi criticized the current political leaders for lacking restraint and wondered how Nepal could prepare a generation of leaders who make responsible decisions. He said student political wings act as the muscle of mother parties, beholden to carry out their wishes. Fresh faces become financially dependent on senior leaders, perpetuating the cycle of cronyism. Sudyumna Dahal, the general secretary of Youth Initiative and a Fulbright scholar, said the bar for entry into hierarchical politics is too high, and only the most determined can journey the long road from student activist to full-fledged party leader without a change in priorities. Gagan Thapa, a former student leader who has made the transition to president of the Nepali Congress Kathmandu-04 constituency, said people needed to pressure parties to open up to youth. Comment: Place Your Bets -------------- ¶8. (C) With less than 11 weeks to go -- only 73 days -- until an April 10 Constituent Assembly election, there is an increasing sentiment among Embassy contacts that the CA election may happen practically by accident. The country's leading politicians may wake up on election day and realize no one has canceled the event. The major political players are not eager to lose power, but no one seems to want to be the bad guy to call off polls yet again. Despite rallies and other outward attempts to campaign, the parties -- and the GON -- for the most part have done little to prepare. Logistics will be a nightmare, from how 74 parties will fit onto one ballot to how all of the materials will be distributed to and collected from polling stations. Various Madhesi groups threaten to wreak havoc, and one strategically timed bandh could throw off the entire timeline. The election schedule already is so compressed that polls will face huge challenges even without a single missed deadline. The Maoists stand to gain from this disorganization. They are putting on a good game face that they have finally bought into the political system, and -- along with the Maoist student wing -- seem the most gung-ho about heading to the polls. Perhaps they are simply biding their time until the Nepali Congress has a meltdown and blames insecurity in the Terai for being forced to cancel the election. POWELL