MQM WORRIED ABOUT POST-ELECTION MANUEUVERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KARACHI 000141 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PK SUBJECT: MQM WORRIED ABOUT POST-ELECTION MANUEUVERING REF: ISLAMABAD 745 Classified By: Kay Anske, Consul General, reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) is concerned about any coalition formed by the Pakistan Peoples, Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). With PML-N publicly stating that it will not talk with the MQM, the MQM is crying foul and wants &respect8. It also claims that PML-N,s issues/demands would only lead to confrontation with Musharraf, instead of focusing on the economy and insurgency. They fear that this desire for confrontation could lead to confrontation with the MQM as well, resulting in unrest in Karachi. The MQM is asking the USG to bring their concerns to Zardari,s attention. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) is concerned about any coalition formed by the Pakistan Peoples, Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). The PML-N has publicly stated that it will not talk with the MQM. PPP Co-Chair Asif Zardari stated that he is willing to work with the MQM but that &certain people8 in Karachi had great reservations about working with the MQM. According to the Governor of Sindh (an MQM-er) in a meeting with the Consul General (CG) on February 23, the &certain people8 included PPP Sindh Executive Secretary Nafees Saddiqui. ¶3. (C) In a conversation with the CG later in the same evening, Karachi Nazim (Mayor) Mustafa Kamal (an MQM-er) repeated that Nawaz Sharif refused to talk with the MQM. The Nazim asked how could the MQM be part of a coalition that included PML-N if PML-N refused to talk with the MQM. Even if the PPP wanted a coalition with the MQM, it would be impossible in any government that included PML-N. ¶4. (C) Both the Governor and the Nazim stated that any coalition of the PPP and the PML-N would be short-lived as the two parties were polar opposites. The Governor mentioned that General Zia-ul-Huq had proclaimed Nawaz Sharif his &son8. How could the PPP work with the &son8 of the man who killed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto? The Nazim calls Nawaz a &mullah without a beard8 and that any government that included Nawaz would be opening the door to Islamic fundamentalists. ¶5. (C) The MQM is concerned that Nawaz Sharif wants only confrontation with Musharraf and any person or party that had been allied with the President. The Governor stated that by focusing only on confrontation, Pakistan would lose sight of bigger issues, such as the economy and terrorism. The Governor feared that Sharif will speak out against the MQM and/or the PML. Such harsh words would cause great &trouble8 in Sindh and Balochistan since the MQM is a significant presence in Sindh and the PML won the provincial government in Balochistan. ¶6. (C) Both the Governor and the Nazim declared that confrontation with the MQM would lead to problems and violence in Karachi. Since Karachi is the engine driving Pakistan,s economy, any prolonged trouble in Karachi would have direct negative impact on the country,s economy. ¶7. (C) MQM rank and file workers are upset about the statements made by Sharif. They are also upset that while MQM leader Altaf Hussain immediately congratulated the PPP on its win, Zardari took several days before speaking to Hussain. (The two did not speak until the night of Friday, February 22.) The workers felt &dissed8 by such actions. ¶8. (C) The message is that the MQM wants to have &good relations8 with the PPP. It is not asking to be part of any coalition. In fact, the MQM might decide to be in the Opposition. The MQM asks only that the relationship between the PPP and the MQM be one built on mutual respect. This is particularly the case in Sindh where any confrontation would result in deadlock in the Assembly and spill over into the streets. The MQM through the Governor and Nazim asks the USG to raise their concerns with Zardari. ¶9. (C) Comment: The MQM seems truly worried about the maneuvering that is occurring as political parties form governments at both the national and provincial level. It fears that if the PML-N and Nawaz Sharif himself continue to refuse to talk to the MQM and persuade the PPP to adopt the KARACHI 00000141 002 OF 002 same attitude, then tempers will flare and old hatreds could resurface. The very real fear by everyone in Karachi, not just the MQM, is that such an attitude will lead to violence in Karachi. According to the MQM, violence will cripple Pakistan,s economy, be a great distraction from large issues such as the fight against terrorism, and provide cover for terrorists to gain a foothold in Karachi and Pakistan, results that no one wants to see. While the fear of the &dark times8 returning to Karachi is very real, the MQM is seeking through the USG to persuade the PPP to include their party in the negotiation. ANSKE