NORTHERN UGANDA: LRA PEACE PROCESS UNCERTAINTIES

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000483 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2018 TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV UG SU CG SUBJECT: NORTHERN UGANDA: LRA PEACE PROCESS UNCERTAINTIES REF: KAMPALA 1779 Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (S) Summary: Potential changes in the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) negotiating team could delay or jeopardize the signing of the Final Peace Agreement (FPA),currently set for April 10 and 14. Splits along ethnic and regional lines within the LRA delegation are now out in the open. Several sources are reporting that LRA leader Joseph Kony was concerned the signing ceremony might be a trap. He reportedly was considering several options regarding the signature and implementation of the agreement. The GOU would like the current LRA team to remain in place because of the potential disruptions and delays that could be caused by a new delegation. The Government will wait to see what events materialize over the next week and continue its efforts to woo defectors. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LRA DELEGATION CHANGES ON THE HORIZON - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (S) Kony allegedly plans to change members of his delegation, possibly this week. We have heard several explanations for the move, from a number of independent sources close to the peace process. First, several separate LRA members in the bush told us that the Holy Spirit informed Kony that the current LRA delegation leader, David Matsanga, was trying to kill him. Second, Kony was told by his own intelligence network that Matsanga was seen in the company of "two white men" in Juba. (Note: The GOU said the sources identified U.S. Senior Advisor for Conflict Resolution Tim Shortley as one of the men. End Note.) One of Kony's informants reportedly claimed that the meeting was to arrange Kony's assassination at the signing ceremony. Third, some elements in the diaspora may have told Kony that Matsanga and delegation member Santa Okot were "eating" money from the process. ¶3. (C) Delegation leader Matsanga will likely be dropped because of his untrustworthiness, according to Okot and GOU security officials. Kony plans to name a new 8-member delegation consisting of diaspora elements, primarily based in Kenya. The likely new leader might be Obonyo Olweny, who served previously as the LRA spokesman in Nairobi. Fifteen people from northern Uganda might also be named as "back-benchers." It is not clear if he will keep some members of the current delegation. - - - - - - - - - LRA TEAM DIVIDED - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Santa Okot called P/E Chief on April 4 complaining bitterly about Matsanga's rudeness and self-interested behavior. She warned P/E Chief not to believe anything Matsanga said. Okot claimed that Matsanga did not talk to Kony, as he told international observers. She said that the LRA delegation did not meet Kony at Rikwangba, but Matsanga forced them to lie about it. Matsanga's "lies" about contact with Kony had put the Acholi members of the LRA delegation in hot water with the Acholi leaders from northern Uganda, according to Okot. The Acholi leaders complained about being stranded in Juba because Matsanga had lied about the signing date. She said Matsanga was manipulating the Mediator and the Ugandan Government for personal financial gain. Okot stated that Matsanga was openly rude to the Acholi members of the delegation and she apologized for Matsanga's insulting behavior toward P/E Chief and others in Juba. ¶5. (C) Government peace team members tell us that Kony trusts Acholi members Yusuf Adek, Willy Oryem, and Santa Okot because they are viewed as serving the interests of northern Ugandans. Okot stated that Kony has told the three not to pay attention to Matsanga, who is from eastern Uganda. - - - - - - - - - KONY'S NEXT MOVES - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (S) Kony appears to be getting a significant amount of information about the peace process, not all of it accurate. The Government of Southern Sudan Mediator, Riek Machar, provided him with a new Thuraya satellite telephone, delivered by the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). (Note: The new number is: 8821643335793 End Note.) Machar allegedly held a two-hour conversation with Kony late last week in which Machar claimed to have persuaded Kony to sign the agreement, according to the GOU. Okot said that Kony reportedly wanted to see the peace agreement because he did KAMPALA 00000483 002 OF 002 not trust Matsanga. ¶7. (S) Concerned about being double-crossed and/or assassinated, Kony reportedly came up with several options, according to GOU sources within the LRA. LRA members and supporters have different opinions about the way forward. One camp argued that Kony should disrupt the signing ceremony "in a spectacular way." This would entail shooting down the aircraft bringing in delegates to witness the signing ceremony, to teach the Acholis, who turned their back on Kony, a lesson. Colonel Bwone Lubwa alluded to this capability when he told us about the "missiles" that Kony keeps with him when he travels. ¶8. (S) A second camp argued that Kony should let the signing ceremony go forward, send the sick and injured among the LRA to the assembly area, and then move back to Central African Republic (CAR). Members of this camp argue that sending useless forces to Rikwangba would buy the LRA leader more time if it looked like he was implementing the agreement. They argue that Kony could afford to send the sick, injured, and tired for demobilization because he had augmented his forces with some 200-400 Chadians from Mahamat Nouri's group. ¶9. (S) The third camp, which the Ugandan External Security Services (ESO) claims consists of Khartoum's agents, argued that Kony needed to sign the peace agreement to enhance Riek Machar's international and domestic credibility, particularly within the Equatoria regions of Sudan. - - - - - - - GOU'S ACTIONS - - - - - - - ¶10. (S) Meanwhile, the GOU appears to have cut a deal with former LRA delegation leader Martin Ojul, lawyer Crispus Ayena, and others, who are staying at the Fairway Hotel in Kampala at GOU expense. Ojul told P/E Chief that he would expose what has been going on behind-the-scenes in the Juba process "at the appropriate time." ¶11. (S) Bureaucratic infighting between the ESO and the Chief of Military Intelligence (CMI),Col. Leopold Kyanda, has hampered plans to extract LRA defectors. The Deputy Director for ESO, Emmy Allio, told us that he had to go directly to Minister of Security Amama Mbabazi for funds to assist in the operations. Meanwhile, CMI has restricted access to former defectors and cut off their telephone time. This has prevented them from encouraging their friends in the bush to come out. It also has alarmed some LRA members by creating concerns that if they defect, they will not be free. ¶12. (C) The GOU's chief negotiators, Ruhakana Rugunda and Henry Okello Oryem, told P/E Chief that they were exasperated by the potential change in the leadership of the LRA delegation. They said the GOU would wait out the week to see where the process would be going. Rugunda encouraged international observers to work to keep the LRA delegation intact to prevent any more delays. - - - - - COMMENT - - - - - ¶13. (C) It is not clear if the April 10 signing date for Kony will hold. We are hearing that the date could continue to slip. The GOU continues to demonstrate patience, but at some point the GOU will assert, or seek concurrence, that the Juba process is finished. BROWNING