CONTENTIOUS UGANDAN BY-ELECTION AND ITS LESSONS FOR 2011

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001613 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM PREF KDEM ASEC EAID UG SUBJECT: CONTENTIOUS UGANDAN BY-ELECTION AND ITS LESSONS FOR 2011 REF: A. Kampala 1470 ¶B. 07 Kampala 01847 ¶C. 07 Kampala 01792 ¶D. 07 Kampala 865 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On December 4, Uganda conducted another controversial by-election in Wakiso District to replace a ruling party parliamentarian (reftels). With increasing opposition inroads in the district, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party pulled out heavy hitters, such as First Lady Janet Museveni, to make its case. The opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) summoned its leader, Kizza Besigye, and the Democratic Party (DP) former president, Paul Ssemogerere, to counter the NRM campaign. The NRM narrowly held on to the seat by just 60 votes. There were public reports of ballot stuffing, rigging, and electoral violence and intimidation. Election monitors from the diplomatic community reported minor irregularities. The opposition publicly announced its intent to challenge the results in the High Court. Repeated electoral irregularities in by-elections and the government's refusal to meaningfully engage the opposition on electoral reforms has undermined public confidence in the country's ability to hold free and fair elections in 2011. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Wakiso District By-Elections - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) Ugandan electoral officials held by-elections on December 4 to fill the Kyaddondo North, Wakiso District seat left vacant after the death of NRM parliamentarian Ssebunya Kibirige. NRM candidate and son of Kibirige, Robert Kibirige Kasule, won the tightly contested race with 8,183 votes - just 60 more than DP candidate Regine Bakittee. Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate Pallyne Nakabuye finished a distant third with 1,900 votes. ¶3. (U) First Lady Janet Museveni and a group of ruling party supporters known as the "Yellow Girls" hit the campaign trail and urged voters to support Kasule's candidacy. The campaign argued that the NRM needed more time to accomplish the party's goals and a vote for Kasule would allow a continuation of the ruling party's work. Besigye dismissed this, arguing that the ruling party had failed to deliver on its promises to the Ugandan people. Ssemogerere called on voters to support Bakittee because of her "high moral structure and integrity." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reports of Electoral Irregularities Mar Results - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) Allegations of electoral malpractice, including ballot stuffing, bribery, multiple voting, and violence were widespread. In one confirmed incident, a polling station's presiding officer and other officials were found at the site before the polls opened with a number of pre-marked ballots already in the box. The police and Electoral Commission Returning Officer were called in and the presiding officer was later arrested and the ballot box confiscated. New staff and electoral materials were provided and voting resumed about an hour later. However, representatives from the Uganda Young Democrats (UYD),a more radical wing of the DP, had already mobilized at the station to protest this irregularity and had to be dispersed with tear gas, according to reports. Voting resumed and continued without incident for the rest of the day. Other complaints from opposition leaders include accusations that additional polling stations were opened in Kangaroo, a pro-NRM area, to make it easier for NRM supporters to vote. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DP Contests Results; Alleges Intimidation and Rigging - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (U) The opposition immediately rejected the results and publicly indicated its intent to file a petition challenging the outcome with the High Court. Party officials argued that there was rigging and electoral violence, and noted that in early election results, Kibirige was leading. DP Legal Advisor and Kampala District parliamentarian Erias Lukwago told the press that the election was not "free and fair" and vowed to seek legal redress. ¶6. (SBU) Prior to the poll, DP Secretary General Mathius Nsubuga contacted members of the diplomatic community to encourage missions to observe the election on December 4. Nsubuga expressed concerns about increased Ugandan military deployments in the area in the days leading up to the election and reported increased incidents of intimidation. He reported that Bakittee's campaign manager had been knocked down in a hit-and-run car accident involving a government-marked vehicle. Nsubuga said that when the car eventually stopped, the Ugandan military quickly converged on the scene to ensure the safety of the occupants but not the victim. The occupants were escorted away and allowed to leave the scene, according to his account. KAMPALA 00001613 002 OF 002 - - - - Comment - - - - ¶7. (SBU) While there were widespread allegations of electoral irregularities and reports of government intimidation, electoral monitors from the diplomatic community reported only minor incidents. It is unclear, however, how many diplomats were deployed, nor whether they were trained in observing elections. In any event, additional claims of electoral malfeasance will likely surface as the opposition court case challenging the results moves forward. The ruling party's narrow victory in Wakiso district and in other recent by-elections indicates increased support for the opposition in former NRM strongholds. Nonetheless, continued distrust between opposition parties FDC and DP, which resulted in an inability to field a single candidate, prevented them from capitalizing on local unhappiness over recent scandals involving the ruling party. ¶8. (SBU) Sustained reports of electoral irregularities in a number of by-elections since the 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections (reftels) have fueled public perception that the Electoral Commission (EC) is not independent. A recent Steadman Group poll found that 63% of respondents felt that the EC was not free to make decisions without government interference. Additionally, 59% said that past elections had not been effectively managed and rigging was cited as the main reason for this deficiency. A lack of voter confidence in the electoral system stems from confirmed and reoccurring reports of electoral fraud and mismanagement in by-elections, a sustained push by the opposition to discredit the EC, and the ruling party's inability to accept defeat. The Government's lack of action on the Supreme Court's electoral reform recommendations following the flawed 2006 elections also remains a source of tension. None of this bodes well for Uganda's ability to hold free, fair, and transparent presidential and parliamentary elections in 2011. BROWNING