RUMBLE IN MENGO: UGANDAN PRESIDENT AND BUGANDA KINGDOM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001331 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM UG SUBJECT: RUMBLE IN MENGO: UGANDAN PRESIDENT AND BUGANDA KINGDOM SQUARE OFF OVER LAND BILL REF: KAMPALA 1048 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Conflict continues between President Museveni and the Buganda Kingdom over historic grievances and the proposed amendments to the 1998 Land Act (widely referred to as the Land Bill amendments). Most of the sparring has taken place in the public arena, where the lack of a communications strategy and subsequent Government missteps have resulted in growing suspicion of President Museveni's intentions. The Buganda Kingdom appears to be winning in the court of public opinion, but the Government was able to achieve its primary objective of muting the Kingdom's radio station programs that were critical of the amendments. The public debate over the Land Bill amendments is taking on increasingly political overtones and heightening ethnic and regional divisions. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - BACKGROUND: PRE-FIGHT BUILD-UP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The Government of Uganda (GOU) proposed amendments to the 1998 Land Act in October 2007, but failed to carry out public consultations prior to or immediately after the announcement. Commissioner for Lands, Sarah Kulata, told Emboffs that the GOU was preoccupied with preparations for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in late November, 2007, and that no funds were available for the consultations. Kulata blamed the lack of consultations and lack of a public relations campaign for the immediate negative media coverage and public backlash against the amendments. ¶3. (U) After CHOGM, President Museveni went on the offensive, explaining that the Land Bill amendments were needed for Uganda to transform from a developing country to an industrialized nation. He argued that the amendments would protect most Ugandans, who are tenants, from eviction. In December, 2007, Museveni promised to initiate dialogue with all stakeholders to reach a consensus on the way forward. He also stated that he might exercise the option of a referendum, if he found it necessary to circumvent land reform opponents or Parliament. The draft bill is in committee and debate on the floor of Parliament has yet to take place. In the meantime, public discourse on the land amendments has taken on ethnic and regional overtones. ¶4. (U) The Acholi Parliamentary Group, representing the ethnic Acholi districts of Gulu, Kitgum, Amuru, and Pader in northern Uganda, was openly critical of the amendments and accused the Government of planning a land grab in the north. Groups in eastern Uganda quickly joined the Acholi in opposition to the bill. Both areas have large anti-government constituencies where accusations of ethnic and regional marginalization resonate. Northern and eastern groups agreed to join together to fight the land amendments. (Note: The majority of opposition parliamentarians hail from the north and east. End Note.) The Buganda Kingdom, located in the Central Region around Kampala and representing the country's largest ethnic group, was less outspoken at first, but no less opposed to the amendments, and has become a significant opposing force due to its location, large number of loyal followers, and strained relationship with President Museveni's southwestern-dominated government. The Baganda position that the Land Bill amendments amount to a Government land grab strengthened the chorus of opposition coming from the north and east. ¶5. (SBU) Buganda Kingdom officials insist there is a "systematic" effort by the Government to avoid the return of all land confiscated in 1967. Moreover, they claim that the Government is trying to create a situation where Baganda landowners lose their ownership to bona fide occupants, lawful tenants and peasants. The Baganda accuse the Government of urging pastoralists to squat on land in the Central Region so that it can later be purchased by Museveni, his family members, and others connected to the President. The Baganda also suspect that the land amendments are aimed at protecting the minority ethnic Bahiima and Tutsi tribes, who settled on the land after 1986. (Note: Museveni is a Bahiima and many of the Government officials who hail from the southwest have ties to Tutsi groups that originated in Rwanda. End Note.) ¶6. (U) Museveni restored the Buganda Kingdom and other kingdoms (Ankole, Bunyaro, Tooro, and the Acholi paramount chief) through the Traditional Rulers (Restitution of Assets and Properties) Act 1993. The Act provided for the return of all properties belonging to kingdoms in Uganda. A condition for the restoration of the kingdoms was that they do not engage in politics. Since 1993, the Buganda Kingdom has been negotiating with the central government for the return of its properties. Only 350 square miles of land has been returned, which the kingdom claims is a small portion of all the property confiscated. The Buganda Kingdom demands the return of 10,660 square miles of forest, wetlands, county and sub-county headquarters in central Uganda. The Baganda claim that safeguarding their land will preserve the foundation of their cultural identity. KAMPALA 00001331 002 OF 003 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MUSEVENI VERSUS THE KABAKA: ROUND ONE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Tensions between President Museveni and Robert Mutebi, the Buganda Kingdom's leader who is referred to as the Kabaka, spilled into the public domain in December 2007 in a heated exchange of publicized letters over the proposed land amendments. On December 18, President Museveni wrote to Mutebi warning him to restrain members of the Central Civic Education Committee (CCEC),the body spearheading the Buganda Kingdom's campaign against the land amendments. Museveni accused the group of using the media to spread lies about the amendments. He complained that the Buganda Kingdom was using the land debate to aid the opposition and undermine the Government's relationship with Baganda peasants. Museveni reminded Mutebi of his constitutional duty to remain non-political. Museveni's letter, published in the Government-owned New Vision, was widely perceived as rude and disrespectful. The President also misjudged the level of distrust of Government intentions among the general population. Round One thus went to the Kabaka, Robert Mutebi. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ROUND TWO: KABAKA REBUFFS MUSEVENI - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (U) Mutebi denied Museveni's accusations that the Buganda Kingdom was involved in partisan politics because it raised concerns about the land amendments. Mutebi's response to Museveni, dated December 29, 2007, explained the activities of the CCEC, which was mandated to conduct public consultations on the Land Bill amendments. Mutebi asked the Government to return unconditionally Kingdom properties that had been seized by previous regimes. This includes 10,660 square miles of forest, wetlands, county, and sub-county headquarters in central Uganda. Mutebi stated that the properties must be vested in the Kingdom to hold in trust for the people of Buganda in accordance with the 1995 Constitution. ¶9. (SBU) Mutebi argued that the issue of unlawful and violent evictions should be tackled through unbiased enforcement of the existing laws (such as the 1998 Land Act) to ensure security of tenure, property rights and corruption laws. He proposed that the government should put in place a transparent national dialogue mechanism within which communities that aspire to "federo" (federalism) may negotiate and agree on establishing a federal system of governance. Mutebi urged Museveni to suspend other government attempts to weaken the Buganda Kingdom, including a local government bill that put the administration of Kampala and a newly-created Mengo Municipality under central government control. (Note: Mengo refers to the seat of the Buganda Kingdom. End Note.) The Kabaka was viewed as rising above Museveni's disrespectful rebuke and upping the ante by raising historic grievances. Round Two goes to the Kabaka, Robert Mutebi. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ROUND THREE: KINGDOM OFFICIALS ARRESTED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (SBU) In July, Museveni ordered the arrest of three Buganda Kingdom officials (Minister of Information Charles Peter Mayiga, Minister of State for Information Medard Lubega, and Central Broadcasting Service (CBS) radio commentator Betty Nambooze) on dubious charges (reftel). The move was supposed to quiet the Kingdom's anti-land bill campaign. Instead, the Government's heavy-handed attempt to negotiate conditions for the officials release with the Kingdom's Prime Minister John Walusimbi backfired on Museveni. First, Walusimbi could not persuade Mengo hardliners or the Kabaka to accept the Government's position that the officials were engaged in terrorist activities, nor could he convince Mutebi to call Museveni. Second, most Ugandans faulted the Government for its failure to charge the officials within 48 hours, its release and re-charging of the officials outside Kampala, and the poor treatment the officials received in custody. Negative public perception, growing tensions within Kampala, international attention, and emerging divisions with the ruling party forced the Government to bring the officials to court and release them on bail unconditionally. Round Three goes to the Kabaka, Robert Mutebi. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - GOVERNMENT IMPOSES CONDITIONS: ROUND FOUR - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (SBU) Photographs of Walusimbi shaking hands with Museveni after a meeting at State House on July 31 hide a behind-the-scenes power play, including the GOU's insistence that CBS radio be muted or shut down. Walusimbi and Museveni reportedly agreed to create a commission to explore the Buganda Kingdom's immediate and historic concerns before the Kabaka would agree to meet with Museveni. In KAMPALA 00001331 003 OF 003 return, Walusimbi summoned CBS radio's management and radio presenters and requested that they stop all attacks on the Government and President Museveni. On August 13, CBS management informed Betty Nambooze that her shows would be suspended indefinitely and she was paid to take a hiatus. She was warned not to participate on programs on independent radio stations. The Kabaka reportedly is exploring the implications of a meeting with Museveni. Round Four goes to President Museveni. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - COMMENT: IMPLICATIONS OF CONTINUED SPARRING - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (SBU) We do not expect the tensions between Museveni and the Buganda Kingdom to subside without significant attention to the ethnic Baganda's historic grievances. The continuing struggle, however, has serious political implications: --Growing Ethnic and Regional Tensions: The war of words over land could quickly degenerate into more serious conflicts, including street violence, in the short term. Political discourse in Uganda is increasingly taking on ethnic and regional overtones in reaction to Government actions and missteps. Over the longer term, it is deepening rifts between Museveni's southwestern base, which dominates the Government despite being a minority in number, and the Central Region, whose acquiescence, historically, has been required for ruling governments to retain power. --Ruling Party Divisions: Frustrated, Museveni ordered the National Resistance Movement (NRM) caucus to pass the Land Bill amendments on August 1. He allowed no debate of the issue, which further angered Baganda members and encouraged a group of young turks to also take up the cause. If the President cannot persuade or coerce his party into voting the amendments into law, he may resort to a costly public referendum. Growing parliamentary opposition to Museveni's tactics could compromise his attempts to amend the Constitution in the run-up to the 2011 elections. --Public Fears of Government Land-Grab: Museveni's stand-off with the Buganda Kingdom exacerbates public suspicions about the government's rush to table the Land Bill amendments without carrying out wide consultations and broad discussions. There is a segment of the public opposed to the Land Bill amendments that support a referendum. They believe that the ruling party parliamentarians will cave in to Museveni for short-term political gain rather protect the long-term public interest in land reform that is unbiased, protects the poor, and promotes development. --Continued Media Crackdown: CBS radio has borne the brunt of Museveni's frustration with his Government's inability to convince the public to support the land amendments. Other media houses tell us that they are exercising self-censorship in reporting on the land issue, but will report on related events, such as government actions against land reform opponents. End Comment. BROWNING