DOSTUM AFFAIR BECOMES EMBROILED IN ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000871 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR WOOD OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-82 POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV AF SUBJECT: DOSTUM AFFAIR BECOMES EMBROILED IN ELECTION POLITICS REF: KABUL 303 Classified By: CDA Chris Dell for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (SBU) Election politics provides the context for the President Karzai, General Dostum, Akbar Bay, and Attorney General Saabit's ongoing maneuvering to resolve the legal tangle resulting from Dostum's February 2 abduction and beating of Turkmen community leader Bay (ref). Bay continues to demand that Dostum be prosecuted. He is supported by the Attorney General, who highlights the importance of rule of law. Dostum seeks a shura-mediated solution to the stand off. Both sides have appealed to Karzai for support and threatened to mobilize their supporters if they do not get it. Karzai remembers that Dostum drew nearly 800,000 votes in the 2004 Presidential elections and appears to be looking for a solution that avoids driving either Dostum or Bay into the opposition (United Front) camp in the run-up to the elections. ¶2. (C) The United Front also remembers the votes Dostum received in the last elections and is willing to challenge Karzai for his support. United Front Spokesman Sangcharaki told us it is understood that Karzai is courting Dostum's support, adding "let him try." Sangcharaki explained that Dostum is a founding member of the United Front (a claim the United Front had not previously made) and that Dostum knows the Uzbek community can count on the support of the Tajik-dominated coalition. The United Front had issued a statement early in the dispute supporting Dostum's position in the standoff, but Sangcharaki privately hedged, saying the United Front would in fact be willing to support a legal solution to Dostum's predicament. According to Sancharaki, the United Front is confident that Uzbek disappointment with Karzai's administration overall will keep Uzbek voters firmly in its column, regardless of Dostum's fate. ¶3. (C) Sangcharaki's comments in support of a legal solution may reflect the United Front's recognition that, if given the choice, many northern Afghans -- even many Uzbeks -- would choose rule of law over Dostum. PRT Panjshir reports that many Panjshiris would be happy to see rule of law enforced and Dostum held to account. Hezb-e-Islami leader Abdul Hadi Arghandewal offered a similar assessment. He told us many lower level northern leaders would welcome Dostum being held accountable and put out of the picture, but fear retribution as long as he is at large. In the end, Dostum held to account under the law may well be less of a threat to Karzai and others than Dostum free to bluff and intimidate. At the very least, he is a figure known for his long history of situational loyalties so a very unreliable political ally. DELL