AFGHAN LEADERS TELL AMB. KHALILZAD THEY ARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003187

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SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS
NSC FOR JWOOD
OSD FOR MCGRAW
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN LEADERS TELL AMB. KHALILZAD THEY ARE
PESSIMISTIC ON SECURITY

Classified By: CDA Christopher Dell for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. USUN Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad met with a
broad array of Afghan political leaders, civil society
activists, and government officials on the margins of his
participation in a UN Security Council fact-finding mission
to Afghanistan Nov. 24-27. He heard a common theme of growing
pessimism on the state of security and ethnic relations.
Afghan leaders told the ambassador that 2008 had been a rough
year for progress in the country and that uncertainty over
next year's presidential election added to the country's
instability. Contacts not close to President Karzai
expressed decreasing confidence in the ability of his
administration to address the challenges facing the country.
See paragraph 11 for Afghan officials with whom Ambassador
Khalilzad met.

Karzai's Mostly Negative Outlook
--------------


2. (C/NF) President Karzai told Amb. Khalilzad over two
private meetings and in a discussion with the UN Security
Council ambassadors that there were several reasons to be
concerned for Afghanistan. Karzai cited the country's chief
challenges as: civilian casualties, problems with Pakistan,
media reports that undermined the government (a reference to
a New York Times article criticizing his brother),and
"parallel" operations of certain PRTs, which he claimed
undermined local governance by some coalition partners. He
added that the security near Kabul had worsened to the point
that security forces could not provide security more than one
kilometer outside of greater Kabul. Khalilzad urged the
president to better manage his dialogue with the
international community both privately and publicly,
specifically asking him to re-word his criticisms of foreign
forces to emphasize better measures to protect civilians.


3. (C/NF) As for positive developments in Afghanistan,
Karzai cited the country's growing economy and financial
reserves, increased access to health care, growing numbers of
young people attending college, and an improving relationship
with Pakistan's political leadership. A recent phone call
with President-Elect Obama had also gone well. Khalilzad
assured Karzai the US commitment to Afghanistan would remain
strong through the transition to a new US administration. He
hoped additional US forces and a larger Afghan ARMY would be
able to support next year's presidential and provincial
council elections.

United Front Insists on Earlier Election, But Still Has No
Candidate
--------------


4. (C/NF) Lower House Speaker Yunus Qanooni and other
members of the opposition United Front coalition hosted a
dinner for Khalilzad. Khalilzad heard fierce criticisms of
Karzai's administration. Qanooni and former president
Burhanuddin Rabbani said the president's appointments and
policies had driven wedges between Afghanistan's Pashtuns and
other ethnic groups. United Front leaders criticized Karzai
for not consulting Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks before
pursuing reconciliation talks with insurgent groups and
considering tribal militia plans.


5. (C/NF) Qanooni said next year's election must be held
according to the timelines set forth in the Constitution, a
position supported by Rabbani, former Defense Minister
Marshall Fahim, First Vice President Ahmad Zia Massoud, and
nearly all other opposition politicians. Shrugging off
arguments that an earlier election would be difficult for
voter education and security plans, Qanooni said the sooner
an election were held, the sooner a new government could
begin addressing the country's problems. Qanooni advocated a
national or international conference, similar to the Bonn
process, to bring the country's powerbrokers together to
resolve differences and promote national unity. Qanooni also
supported an interim administration taking over after the
expiration of Karzai's term if an election is not held by
then.


6. (C/NF) UF leaders told Amb. Khalilzad they had not yet
identified a presidential candidate. Rabbani added that the
coalition had not even decided whether to run one of its own
or support a unity candidate. Qanooni said the coalition was
inclined to wait to see how events played out, such as the

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debate over the election's timing and the nominations of
individuals in the new US foreign policy team. He and
Rabbani said the UF would not make its choice public for some
weeks. Rabbani said the coalition, for now, was more focused
on building a "national unity team" to counter perceived
Pashtun bias in the Karzai administration. At the same
dinner, Hazara leader Haji Mohammad Mohaqqeq appeared to
align with the UF, if not formally join its ranks. Mohaqqeq
said he used to support Karzai and his allies in Parliament
in the interests of the country, but would no longer back the
administration.

Vice Presidents Hope For More Development
--------------


7. (C/NF) Khalilzad met separately with Afghanistan's two
vice presidents, Ahmad Zia Massoud and Karim Khalili, to
discuss issues relevant to their portfolios. Massoud hoped
the Afghan government would continue to address economic
issues, including building agricultural, hydropower, and
irrigation infrastructure. Khalili hoped for more
development in his native Hazarajat, especially on road
construction that linked Bamyan province with Kabul and
Herat.

Cabinet Ministers Hope to Enact Changes in Time For Election
--------------


8. (C/NF) Amb. Khalilzad spoke with more than 10 Cabinet
members during his visit. Most ministers focused on the
worsening security situation and its impact on their
respective portfolios. Minister of Energy and Water Ismail
Khan said poor security threatened numerous projects, such as
hydroelectric power-generating dams, from going online. Khan
added more than 80 percent of Heratis now opposed Karzai's
government because of its inability to provide security and
services.


9. (C/NF) Interior Minister Mohammad Hanif Atmar, on the job
for only four weeks, is focusing on village-level security,
highway security, and addressing security threats to Kabul
and surrounding areas. Atmar hoped to change a culture of
corruption within the MoI that saw police chiefs cash in on
their positions with bribes and extortion schemes. Atmar
hoped to continue and expand the Focused District Development
police training program and develop an intelligence unit
within the national police that could better tip off security
forces to local insurgent groups.

Civil Society Leaders Say Situation Has Worsened in Last Year
--------------


10. (C/NF) Amb. Khalilzad hosted a roundtable with a dozen
civil society leaders, where he asked for impressions on the
situation in Afghanistan. Overwhelmingly, roundtable
participants said security deteriorated in 2008. Most blamed
Karzai's government, although many also criticized the
Coalition's initial military strategies to fight the Taliban
and the US's reluctance to challenge Pakistan's support for
insurgent groups. Most doubted the West's ability to win a
guerrilla war in Afghanistan. Ahmad Saidi added that endemic
official corruption contributed to the public's declining
confidence in Karzai. Fawzia Kofi, an MP and NGO founder,
said UNAMA needed to do a better job of coordinating
international aid. Gen. Baryalai Khan disapproved of the
government's reconciliation strategy, saying the government
should only negotiate with the Taliban once it is in a
position of strength.


11. (C/NF) Afghan officials with whom Amb. Khalilzad met:

President Karzai
VP Ahmad Zia Massoud
VP Abdul Karim Khalili
Lower House Speaker Yunus Qanooni
Upper House Speaker Sibghatullah Mojaddadi
Professors Burhanuddin Rabbani and Marshall Fahim
MP Shakar Kargar
Pir Gailani and Upper House Deputy Speaker Hamid Gailani
MP Haji Mohaqqeq
Energy Minister Ismail Khan
Interior Minister Hanif Atmar
Public Health Minister Fatima
Communications Minister Sangin
NDS chief Amrullah Saleh

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Kabul Governor Haji Din Mohammad
Nangarhar Governor Gul Aqa Sherzai
SRSG Kai Eide

DELL