IEC LEADERSHIP'S POLITICAL TO-DO LIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003007 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR JWOOD OSD FOR MCGRAW CG CJTF-101, POLAD, JICCENT E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018 TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF SUBJECT: IEC LEADERSHIP'S POLITICAL TO-DO LIST REF: A. KABUL 2548 ¶B. KABUL 2832 KABUL 00003007 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Alan Yu Reason 1.5 b and d ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The technical experts of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) have flagged five thorny issues for decision by their superiors. Chief Technical Officer Daoud Ali Najafi has asked the seven Commissioners, led by Dr. Azizullah Lodin (REF A) to issue guidance on: selecting an election date; conducting out-of-country voting; vetting candidates; choosing voter count procedures; and regulating candidates' use of media in their campaigns. Zekrai Barakzai, Najafi's deputy, hopes the Commission will reach its decisions by the end of November. Each decision has the potential to affect popular perceptions of the legitimacy of the elections. -------------- KARZAI'S OPPONENTS DEBATE THE DATE -------------- ¶2. (C) As reported REF B, Lower House Speaker Qanooni and a sampling of legislators prefer to frame the issue of the election date as a question of respect for the constitution. Chief Justice Azimi, who referees constitutional interpretations, has told President Karzai and others that he agrees that the spring date declared in Article 61 is quite clear. The IEC's technical experts are waiting for the Lower House to confirm an invitation to speak on the determination of the election date and answer legislators' questions about the voter registration process. Najafi on November 9 again expressed his exasperation that the political consensus reached early in 2008 for a fall 2009 election date apparently has fallen apart; on April 9, 2008 in the immediate wake of the meeting that forged the consensus, the IEC issued a press release detailing the rationale of its decision and noting the participation of Karzai, Azimi, Qanooni and other legislators in the decision-making process. Now, Najafi suspects legislators are seeking partisan advantage. The IEC continues to plan for a fall 2009 date, most likely just after Ramazan ends in the third week of September. -------------- PASHTUNS SUPPORT OUT-OF-COUNTRY VOTING -------------- ¶3. (C NF) Afghan political analyst Haroun Mir sees out-of-country voting as a Pashtun issue, as the practice might serve to reassure Pashtun politicians worried that security problems in the south will disproportionately disenfranchise their ethnic group. In 2005 Afghans in Iran and Pakistan -- mostly refugees, mostly Pashtuns -- could vote from their locations. President Karzai's National Security Advisor, Dr. Rassoul, said on November 8 that out-of-country votes represented between 0.6 percent and 1 percent of Karzai's vote total in 2005, a figure that represented a negligent factor in the outcome. UN election experts believe out-of-country voting may be more susceptible to fraud and note that no preparations have yet been made for such voting. Whether such fraud would significantly affect the result of vote is less certain. -------------- -------------- PROVINCIAL COUNCIL CANDIDATES WORRY ABOUT DISARMAMENT -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C NF) The 2005 electoral law which governs the 2009 election stipulates that candidates may not be members of an illegal armed group. The IEC and the Disarmament and Reintegration Commission (DRC),with UN and US Institute of Peace technical advice, are weighing an experts' proposal to have the DRC update its list of illegal armed groups and their members, notify members before candidate registration begins, and channel complaints or decisions to disarm through the existing government-led disarmament process. During registration, the IEC would pass its list of potential candidates to the DRC, which would notify both the IEC and the would-be candidate of any disqualification for membership in an illegal armed group. In this proposal, the not-yet-formed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) would focus solely on violations of electoral processes, while the DIAG (Disarmament of Illegal Armed Groups) subset of the DRC would handle candidates' appeals on status as a member of an KABUL 00003007 002 OF 002 armed group. IEC technical staff say they prefer to avoid entangling either the IEC or the ECC in this volatile political issue. No known presidential contender would fail the criterion, but many provincial council aspirants may face disqualification. -------------- COUNT AND MEDIA DECISIONS EASIEST TO MAKE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) IEC technical staff connect security forecasts to how they are evaluating potential vote count procedures. The IEC frames its choices as counting at the provincial level, or returning materials to Kabul for counting at IEC headquarters. Where the cast ballots and the electoral staff would be safest is not clear, and either location involves trade-offs on speed and anti-fraud measures. ¶6. (SBU) Candidate media access is the least controversial issue, and the IEC is likely to find a solution that treats incumbents and challengers equally. UN election experts estimate that providing free air time to candidates in 2009, as was done in 2005, would cost about 6 million USD. WOOD