HEZB-E-ISLAMI ON VOTER REGISTRATION, IRAN CONCERNS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002972

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS
NSC FOR JWOOD
OSD FOR MCGRAW
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PTER AF IR
SUBJECT: HEZB-E-ISLAMI ON VOTER REGISTRATION, IRAN CONCERNS

REF: KABUL 1812

KABUL 00002972 001.4 OF 003


Classified By: Political Counselor Alan Yu for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan is continuing
to organize a nation-wide political movement and distance
itself from its origins as a mujahideen military force under
the leadership of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. The party has
organized members in half of the country's provinces, but
recent financial difficulties have cut short plans for a
meeting of its executive committee. A lack of funding has
also slowed its youth outreach efforts aimed at dissuading
young men from joining insurgent groups. The group is
actively involved in voter registration programs, but
continues to worry about harassment from GIRoA security and
intelligence officials it believes receive Iranian and
Russian backing. Iranian interference in Afghanistan, in
particular, is a growing concern for the party.

HIA Supports Voter Registration, No Signs of Pashtun
Disenfranchisement
--------------


2. (C/NF) Our latest conversation (Nov. 9) with
Arghandewal comes four months into his second term as
Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan chairman (reftel). Party leaders
are continuing to move the party's infrastructure away from
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's legacy and toward a legitimate role in
the country's upcoming presidential, legislative, and
provincial elections.


3. (C/NF) Contrary to some reports that Pashtun
disenfranchisement could lead to reduced participation in
voter registration, Arghandewal has not yet seen any signs of
systemic efforts to suppress Pashtun registration in the
Phase 1 and 2 processes. Rather, HIA has embraced the
process and recognizes the importance of registering its
supporters if it hopes to become a player in future
elections. Arghandewal said he is worried instability in
Pashtun areas may lead to trouble for next year's
presidential election, but he has committed his party's
members and resources to an active participation in ongoing
voter registration efforts anyway.


4. (C/NF) Arghandewal credits Kunar province's successful
registration operation during Phase I to HIA's involvement
and said the party is also registering supporters in Logar
and Ghazni provinces. The party has advertised voter
registration in its newsletter and emphasized women's
registration. Arghandewal said there are fewer efforts by
Hekmatyar to disrupt voter registration than in 2004,
encouraging HIA supporters who might also be sympathetic to
Hekmatyar's legacy to fall into line. Party leaders are also
lobbying to play a greater role in registration operations in
Badghis, where HIA has criticized local Independent Election
Commission officials for not trying to reach remote areas.

Party Now Organized in 17 Provinces
--------------


5. (C/NF) With the election of a provincial party council
in Baghlan last week, HIA has now organized provincial party
councils in half of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. The party
also recently opened offices and established councils in
Badghis and Ghor and will open an office in Balkh later this
month. Arghandewal contrasted the party's burgeoning
organizational efforts with those of other, more
personality-driven, Afghan political parties as a slower, but
deeper grassroots process.


6. (C/NF) Few other political parties have shown much
evidence of nationwide popular support or organization at the
provincial level. We usually find many regional party
offices for groups such as the United Front or Hezb-e-Wahdat
to be homes of individual well-to-do supporters. Only a
handful of the country's dozens of registered parties exist
as anything other than a leader and collection of yes-men.
HIA leaders in Kabul, however, say they are looking to
delegate authority to district and provincial councils, which
are responsible for raising funds and opening/operating
offices. This has led to a more robust party operation,
which while having no strongman to serve as a charismatic
figurehead, allows the party to carry out several programs in
many provinces at the same time.

Financial Issues Strain Organizational Efforts
--------------


KABUL 00002972 002.3 OF 003



7. (C/NF) Of course, relying on local members to fund
their own activities is not just a grassroots
political strategy, but an act of necessity. Arghandewal
said the party's national coffers have dried up and he is no
longer able to fund the party out of his own pocket. After
HIA's executive committee expanded from some 60 to more than
100 members this fall, the party had to cancel its plans for
a meeting in Kabul this month because it was unable to pay
for provincial representatives' travel and boarding.


8. (C/NF) HIA members told us earlier they expected to
decide on their endorsement of a presidential candidate at
this November gathering, but Arghandewal said this week that
the lack of declared choices in the race made it easier to
postpone the executive committee's meeting. While many
members, including influential MPs like Mawlawi Ludin
(Nangarhar, Pashtun),say they are inclined to support
Karzai, Arghandewal said no decision has been made. With no
major declared candidates other than Karzai and no political
advantages to declaring for the president so early, HIA will
hold on to its cards and wait as long as until March to
advertise its endorsement, he said.

Worries About Iranian Influence and Youth Unemployment
--------------


9. (S/NF) Arghandewal expressed concern over the efforts
of Iranian government representatives to influence HIA
members against the Afghan government and the international
community. He said Iranian agents had approached a former
mujahideen commander in Nimrooz province, offering weapons
and money to the commander in exchange for the commander's
commitment to oppose the government and coalition forces with
some 1,000 men under his command in the province.
Arghandewal said he had intervened and handed the commander a
letter on HIA stationary asking Nimrooz mujahideen to remain
patient and support the government's efforts.


10. (S/NF) Arghandewal said this effort to interfere in
Afghanistan's security fit a pattern of efforts by Iranian
officials to turn Afghans against the Afghan and US
governments. He said recent rumors that Karzai and the USG
had had a falling out prompted the Iranian ambassador in
Kabul to lobby Uzbek leader Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and
Hazara leader Haji Mohammad Mohaqqeq to rally behind Karzai
in hopes of countering what the Iranian ambassador perceived
to be USG attempts to weaken Karzai. Arghandewal said Iran
uses its considerable influence over Afghan media to shape
public opinion and create a Persian-speaking sphere of
influence in parts of Afghanistan and Tajikistan.


11. (S/NF) HIA members have told us before of their distrust
of GIRoA security agencies, which they suspect of being
anti-Pashtun and influenced by Iranian and Russian
intelligence agencies. Arghandewal believes Iranian-backed
insurgents are targeting him and other HIA leaders. He also
said insurgent groups like HIG and the Taliban are jealous of
HIA's youth outreach programs and see them as a threat to
their own recruitment efforts. Arghandewal said HIA has made
it a priority to counter Iranian propaganda, telling its
younger members that to Iran, killing a Pashtun and an
American are the same thing. But it's unclear how many
resources HIA has at its disposal to get this message out.
Youth unemployment has left a generation of restless young
men susceptible to insurgent and Iranian propaganda, but HIA
has recently cut back on its outreach efforts to young
people, both because of the central leadership's financial
problems and because of specific threats local HIA members
receive from Taliban groups.

A Populist Party With Moderating Influence
--------------


12. (S/NF) Arghandewal's most recent comments to us show
concern for the party's financial solvency, but also signs of
its continuing modernization and moderation. Despite this
promising talk from its leaders, HIA still faces a long road
to overcome broader distrust, especially among northerners,
given HIG's notorious history. As one of the few parties
pursuing a national electoral strategy and democratizing its
internal elections, HIA stands to become a major power-broker
in the presidential election and win significant seats in
upcoming provincial and national legislative elections. We
continue to believe a handful of executive committee members,
Arghandewal chief among them, are driving this move to the
middle and rejection of Hekmatyar, while many lower-level
supporters see a blurrier line between HIA and HIG. But
although these moderates have their sights set on the future,

KABUL 00002972 003.4 OF 003


they are suitably grounded in the present to deliver sober
warnings on insurgent and foreign efforts to disrupt the
country's reconstruction and security efforts. In
particular, Arghandewal's concern over Iranian-backed media
shaping public opinion against the Afghan government and
coalition forces bears further consideration.
WOOD