DRL DAS BARKS-RUGGLES EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR AFGHAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002838

SENSITIVE
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STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS, DRL
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL AF
SUBJECT: DRL DAS BARKS-RUGGLES EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR AFGHAN
ELECTIONS; TIMING ISSUE STILL UNCERTAIN

REF: KABUL 02755

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Stacy Nichols for
reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In October 15-16 meetings with visiting DRL
DAS Erica Barks-Ruggles, representatives from the Afghan
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC),NATO, UNDP, the
National Democratic Institute (NDI),the International
Republican Institute (IRI),and the International Foundation
for Electoral Systems (IFES) expressed optimism about the
operational side of the Afghan presidential election and the
progress of voter registration but strong concern about the
political debate over the timing of the presidential
election. IEC Deputy Chief Electoral Officer Zekria Barakzai
warned that significant "turbulence" could occur after May 21
if the political consensus on the timing of the presidential
election (reftel) is not re-established. DAS Barks-Ruggles
emphasized the strong commitment of the U.S. to support an
Afghan-led effort to conduct free, fair, and transparent
elections.

Phase One of Voter Registration Successfully Underway
-------------- --------------

2. (C) IEC Deputy Chief Electoral Officer Zekria Barakzai
told DAS Barks-Ruggles and representatives from UNDP and NATO
that he was satisfied with the number of voters who
registered during the first week of phase one voter
registration. According to IEC press conference notes,
during the first week of voter registration approximately
215,000 people registered, including 57,537 women and 1349
Kuchis. Barakzai highlighted the voter registration process
in Kunar Province as particularly successful, considering
that Kunar faces ongoing security concerns. IEC staff was
investigating what factors contributed to this success and
will attempt to apply the results of this investigation to
other provinces in later voter registration phases where
there are also security concerns. Barakzai said coordination
between the IEC and the international community had been
positive, citing the smooth functioning of the IEC Operations
Center in coordinating security operations. Barakzai
reported that only a small number of registration centers
experienced difficulties preventing them from opening. He
also said, however, that the provinces in phase one are
considered the safest in Afghanistan, but there were still
some security incidents including poor security forcing six
district voter registration centers in Ghazni province to
remain closed.


3. (SBU) NATO Senior Political Advisor Nicholas Williams said
that he is cautiously optimistic about the progress of phase
one voter registration. He said that the only real measure
of success, however, would be completion of phase one without
the occurrence of any significant security incidents. From an
operational and technical standpoint, the Afghan elections
were in good shape, he said, noting that coordination between
the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police
(ANP) had greatly improved over the past year.


4. (C) Margie Cook, UNDP Chief Electoral Advisor,
characterized coordination between the various groups
supporting the IEC as excellent. She highlighted the regular
donor group meetings that bring political and development
sides together and the weekly security meetings conducted by
IEC with the participation of the ANA, the ANP, ISAF, and the
National Directorate of Security as two examples of the
regular and productive coordination between the different
bodies involved in election planning and operations. DAS
Barks-Ruggles raised the need to protect the data obtained
during the voter registration process both from misuse and
from destruction or loss. Cook said the planned use of an
offsite data storage facility is one way in which the data
obtained during voter registration will be protected.

Timing of Elections: the Controversy Continues
-------------- -

5. (C) Barakzai told DAS Barks-Ruggles that he foresaw many

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difficulties with conducting the presidential election in
March 2009 as some in Parliament have suggested, instead of
the current plan of fall 2009 (reftel). If the election were
held in March, he said, large numbers of voters would be
deprived of their constitutional right to vote because there
would not be time to make adequate security and other
operational preparations. He asserted that despite
constitutional provisions setting firm deadlines for the
elections, GoIRA stakeholders reached a consensus that the
date would slide to the fall of 2009 after negotiations that
included over 20 discussions between the President,
Parliament, and political leaders (reftel). He said that the
controversy over the timing of the presidential election puts
the IEC in a very difficult political position, noting that
if the non-partisan IEC were to say publicly that holding the
election in March would be technically impossible, political
leaders and others would accuse the IEC of favoring President
Karzai by trying to extend his term in office. He noted,
however, that "after seven years in office a three month
extension is not that significant," and the issue was mostly
a means for Parliament to pressure President Karzai.


6. (C) Williams took a more dire view. He said NATO's view
is that the election must take place during the time frame
agreed upon by prior political consensus, i.e. fall 2009. He
urged the UN and the US to persuade GoIRA actors that an
earlier election is not feasible. He said that if the date
issue becomes significant, it would interfere with the
Afghans' ability to provide needed security during the
election and the international forces' ability to support the
Afghan security efforts. He emphasized how important
politically it is that the international role in providing
security to the election be as invisible as possible.
Holding the election earlier would require a more robust and
visible UN and NATO effort - undermining efforts to build
capable Afghan institutions and playing into the hands of
those who want to portray the government as pawns of the
West. Furthermore, he said that there are significant
concerns about security conditions in the South preventing
Pashtun citizens from voting even under the current timeline.
If the timeline became shorter, the chances of the lack of
participation of Pashtuns reaching a level that would cause a
political crisis would sharply increase.


7. (C) DAS Barks-Ruggles said that the US is committed to
supporting an Afghan-led effort to hold free, fair, and
transparent elections. She also stated that regardless of
the outcome of the US presidential election, the US is
committed long-term to Afghanistan. She said that Afghan
stakeholders must reach a political consensus on the election
timing issue, and that this process should be Afghan-led.
DAS Barks-Ruggles asked whether Afghans were considering any
other possibilities for bridging the gap between May 21,
2009, the date constitutionally specified as the last day of
the presidential term, and fall 2009 when the election is
currently planned. Barakzai said that one proposal is that
President Karzai hand over power to the Speaker of the
National Assembly's Upper House. He said that the main
problem is that Karzai is a candidate in the election and
thus, the possibility of extending his term for three months
is a very sensitive topic and puts the IEC in a difficult
position. He warned that if there is no solution to this and
the Lower House decides to push the issue by declaring
Preisdent Karzai has no authority after May 21, there could
be "huge turbulence" in the country.


8. (C) Cook then asked the group if the concerns about
turbulence after May 21 were serious enough to re-consider
the technical and operational feasibility of holding an
earlier election. She recommended that a small group
discretely and without making any commitments discuss the
pros and cons of shifting the date. DAS Barks-Ruggles asked
what the Afghan timetable was for resolving this controversy.
Barakzai did not speculate on a time frame for moving
forward on resolving the dispute but again characterized it
as a "hot political issue." DAS Barks-Ruggles reiterated
that the US strongly supports the Afghan electoral process,

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but that the Afghan decision-makers need to resolve the
timing issue as their credibility rests on reaching a
political consensus.


9. (U) DAS Barks-Ruggles asked Barakzai what message she
should communicate to Washington on behalf of the IEC.
Barakzai expressed gratitude for US support of the election
and asked for increased flexibility in how that support is
provided in light of the fact that financial needs during the
election process cannot always be predicted far ahead of
time.

Meeting with NDI, IRI, and IFES
--------------

10. (U) DAS Barks-Ruggles also met with representatives from
NDI, IRI, and IFES and discussed their role in supporting the
Afghan elections and the challenges faced so far. NDI
Country Director Susan Carnduff said that NDI's principal
activities are leadership training for political parties
including assessing the ability of women to participate in
the political process. Carnduff also described NDI's work
with election observers through technical support to the Free
and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA). IRI
representative Shuvaloy Majumdar discussed IRI's work
supporting political independence. IRI works with a network
of district shuras, a youth network, and a women's network to
support political independence and to provide voter
education. IFES staff members Mary Cummins and Charles
Lasham discussed capacity building at the IEC and work
strengthening IEC security. IRI and IFES also conduct
training for journalists covering elections. They reported
that 100 journalists had already completed the training.


11. (C) DAS Barks-Ruggles asked what was the biggest obstacle
to the organizations, efforts. The NDI representative
mentioned the failure of the Afghan legislature to pass the
election law or the political party registration law as
evidence that some GoIRA actors less than avidly support the
electoral process. IFES staff said that the message from the
US recently that Afghanistan is failing made IFES's capacity
building work more difficult. All cited the difficulties
they face due to the increasing security problems around the
country, and noted that the 3rd and 4th phases of voter
registration in the most insecure areas of Afghanistan will
be very difficult. They expressed concern about the low
level of female registration thus far as well. DAS
Barks-Ruggles said the U.S. is committed to working with
Afghanistan to ensure security, democracy, and long-term
stability. She said the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has
strong bipartisan support, and that there is a clear USG
recognition that international support is needed on a
long-term basis to ensure Afghanistan's continued democratic
development.


12. (C) COMMENT: Barakzai made the point that the Afghan
Constitution is not crystal clear on many issues, but one of
the very few clear provisions is Article 61, which states
that "(t)he presidential term shall expire on the 1st of
Jawza of the fifth year after elections (May 21, 2009).
Elections for the new President shall be held within thirty
to sixty days prior to the end of the presidential term." It
is difficult to predict how this debate will progress. Even
if an agreement is reached in the near future, it is possible
that the issue could continuously re-emerge, distracting the
busy IEC from the work needed to ensure free, fair,
transparent, secure, and inclusive elections.


13. (U) DAS Barks-Ruggles cleared this message.

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