KARZAI SHUFFLES KEY CABINET POSITIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002756 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS NSC FOR JWOOD OSD FOR SHIVERS CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AF SUBJECT: KARZAI SHUFFLES KEY CABINET POSITIONS Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Stacy Nichols for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. President Karzai announced a long-anticipated Cabinet shuffle Oct. 11, making six key changes in his government. Reactions to these changes ranged from cautious optimism from the international community to healthy skepticism from opposition political leaders. State-owned media reported positively on the changes, while private media criticized the moves as "too little, too late." At the top of the shuffle is former Education Minister Mohammad Hanif Atmar, who brings a positive reputation as a reformer and skilled bureaucrat to the Ministry of Interior, where he will face challenges fighting corruption in the country's 80,000-strong police force. Other changes are likely evidence of Karzai's desire to reassure international donors by promoting capable technocrats to key ministries, while also shoring up support among his loyalists ahead of next year's presidential election. Technocrats and Karzai Allies Win Out -------------- ¶2. (C) After months of rumors involving a possible Cabinet shuffle of several ministries and key administrative positions in the Palace, Karzai finally announced Oct. 11 he would change the chiefs of four ministries and two Cabinet-level administrative positions. News broke earlier in the week of the imminent changes, but certain Tajik politicians rallied in an attempt to protect then-Interior Minister Zarar Ahmad Muqbal. Those efforts momentarily delayed Karzai's announcement, but the Palace eventually came out publicly with the following realignment: -- Mohammad Hanif Atmar, 40, moves from Education to Interior. As Education Minister, Atmar collected numerous accolades for his work to rebuild the country's educational system, promote girls' attendance at schools, and cut through red tape to administer programs. Prior to that position, he also achieved success as rural development minister earlier in Karzai's government. At Interior, he'll face serious challenges addressing corruption in the Afghan National Police and overcoming opposition from those who see him as too young or too inexperienced in security issues to address the ministry's challenges. Although Atmar opposed the Soviet �A;invasion in 1979 while a student, he later worked as a minor official in the communist government's secret police. Later, he moved to England, where he received a master's degree in international relations. -- Zarar Ahmad Moqbel moves from Interior to Refugee Affairs, by and large a demotion, but one that keeps him in the government. Zarar gradually fell out of favor with Karzai over the past several years because of the slow pace of reform in the Interior Ministry and continuing problems with corruption. Zarar himself faced corruption charges and has few die-hard supporters even among fellow Tajiks, who rallied around him largely in an attempt to prevent a Pashtun from winning a key ministry. -- Farooq Wardak exchanges his three hats inside the Palace (Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs, Secretary of the Council of Ministers, and head of the Office of Administrative Affairs) for the Education portfolio. Pre-announcement rumors had Wardak as a possible choice for Interior, but one source told us Karzai's longtime advisor was looking for a slow exit from government. With this move, Wardak can rest on achievements won by Atmar at Education while maintaining Cabinet status to assist Karzai as needed throughout next year's election campaign. -- Former Kandahar Governor Assadullah Khalid takes over as Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs. Karzai sacked Khalid last July after mediocre (or worse) performances in Kandahar and Ghazni prompted complaints from the international community and Afghans alike. Still, Khalid has a history of close ties to the Karzai family and should be able to accurately represent the president's agenda before parliament. Whether he has the skill or connections with MPs KABUL 00002756 002 OF 002 to advance the agenda is unknown. -- Mohammad Asif Rahimi becomes Minister of Agriculture and immediately faces challenges with a looming drought and food shortages in several regions of the country. -- Finally, Najibullah Sadeq Mudabir takes over Farooq Wardak's other two positions as Secretary of the Council of Ministers and head of the Office of Administrative Affairs. ¶3. (C) These moves generally promote technocrats and those allied closely with the president. Although most of the new ministers have positive reputations as effective managers, many also bring political advantages with them. Atmar, once rumored as a presidential candidate himself, remains aligned with Karzai and becomes better positioned for a possible run in the next election cycle. Unlike many other rumored contenders, Atmar is young and can afford to wait another five years. Moreover, his connections to Pashtun nationalist parties such as Afghan Millat could lock up crucial support behind Karzai for next year's election. Wardak himself brings connections to Hezb-e-Islami, another crucial constituency for Karzai's re-election hopes. International Reaction Optimistic, Afghans Divided -------------- ¶4. (U) Western embassies and UNAMA generally praised the moves, particularly the decision to install Atmar at Interior. UNAMA head Kai Eide said in press reports that the shuffle indicated a willingness on the part of Karzai to implement the demands of donor countries agreed upon at the June Paris Conference to better strengthen the police and improve agricultural production. ¶5. (U) Media reaction was more divided, with state-owned media in favor and other media critical. State-owned Hewad Daily said the critical challenges facing Afghanistan demanded changes at the top of key ministries. Private media focused more on quotes from opposition politicians, some of whom criticized the changes as "moving bad pieces around on a chess board." Many media commentators speculated the changes came as a result of US pressure on Karzai. Skepticism Among MPs, But Few Foresee Confirmation Problems -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Several MPs from across the political spectrum greeted the Cabinet changes with skepticism and criticism. Religiously influential MPs like Prof. Burhanuddin Rabbani (Badakhshan, Tajik) and Abdul Rasoul Sayyaf (Kabul, Pashtun) oppose the more secular Atmar, as do many Tajiks convinced of Karzai's attempts to "Pashtunize" the Cabinet. Zarar supporter MP Mohammad Almas (Parwan, Tajik) tried throwing a wrench into Karzai's plans on October 10, inviting more than 70 MPs to a Kabul restaurant to lobby them to block the shuffle from going through. MPs left with divided opinions and no consensus, which paved the way for Karzai's announcement the next day. ¶7. (C) However, most MPs predicted the nominees would win confirmation votes, expected within the next two weeks. Only the nominees for Interior, Refugees, Agriculture, and Education will require confirmation votes. Atmar and Zarar previously won confirmation votes by comfortable margins. Fazel Karim Aimaq (Kunduz, Tajik) said he doubted the new ministers would have much luck solving Afghanistan's problems, but as a Karzai opponent he would vote for them anyway, if only to enjoy seeing them fail. Sardar Rahman Oghly (Faryab, Uzbek) suspected the appointments were made to please certain groups whose backing Karzai considered vital to his re-election, such as Atmar with the international community and Wardak with Hezb-e-Islami. Shukria Barakzai (Kabul, Pashtun) said the new ministers were mostly talented officials, but the appointments were coming too late to resurrect Karzai's reputation among the people. She anticipated no problems with the confirmation votes. WOOD