Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KABUL1788
2008-07-17 10:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:
KARZAI RESISTS ADVISOR ON ELECTIONS DELAY
how-toVZCZCXRO9632 OO RUEHPW DE RUEHBUL #1788 1991052 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 171052Z JUL 08 FM AMEMBASSY KABUL TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4731 INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 001788
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A,
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR WOOD
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-101 POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MOPS AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI RESISTS ADVISOR ON ELECTIONS DELAY
Classified By: A/POLCOUNS Jeremiah Howard; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 001788
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A,
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR WOOD
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-101 POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MOPS AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI RESISTS ADVISOR ON ELECTIONS DELAY
Classified By: A/POLCOUNS Jeremiah Howard; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Palace political advisor Sigbatullah Sanjar (Protect)
is trying to convince Karzai persistent insecurity in the
south and east offers him a plausible excuse for postponing
elections he otherwise might lose. Karzai continues to
resist Sanjar and other supporters' agitation for an
elections postponement.
2. (SBU) During a July 7 meeting with us, Sanjar summarized
Karzai's election strategy as establishing the credibility of
the Afghan National Development Strategy's (ANDS) promise to
improve Afghans' lives and securing tribal votes through
deals with Pashtun elders. Sanjar despairs of ANDS'
achieving visible successes prior to autumn 2009. He doubts
Pashtun tribal leaders still maintain enough discipline over
their nominal followers to compel them to vote for a
particular candidate.
3. (C) Convinced Karzai's strategy will fail to reverse his
gathering unpopularity over the next year, Sanjar is urging
the president to delay the elections on security grounds. He
contends Karzai can credibly argue that prevailing
instability in the south and east would unfairly deny the
Pashtuns their right to vote. Elections that gave
disproportionate weight to Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara voters,
Sanjar argues, would be undemocratic. So far, Sanjar said,
Karzai has resisted his arguments.
4. (C) Comment: Over the short term, we expect more Karzai
supporters, panicked by gloomy long-range elections
predictions, to attempt to pressure the president into
delaying the elections. We will work to counter their
pressure and reinforce Karzai's better instincts.
WOOD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A,
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR WOOD
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-101 POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MOPS AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI RESISTS ADVISOR ON ELECTIONS DELAY
Classified By: A/POLCOUNS Jeremiah Howard; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Palace political advisor Sigbatullah Sanjar (Protect)
is trying to convince Karzai persistent insecurity in the
south and east offers him a plausible excuse for postponing
elections he otherwise might lose. Karzai continues to
resist Sanjar and other supporters' agitation for an
elections postponement.
2. (SBU) During a July 7 meeting with us, Sanjar summarized
Karzai's election strategy as establishing the credibility of
the Afghan National Development Strategy's (ANDS) promise to
improve Afghans' lives and securing tribal votes through
deals with Pashtun elders. Sanjar despairs of ANDS'
achieving visible successes prior to autumn 2009. He doubts
Pashtun tribal leaders still maintain enough discipline over
their nominal followers to compel them to vote for a
particular candidate.
3. (C) Convinced Karzai's strategy will fail to reverse his
gathering unpopularity over the next year, Sanjar is urging
the president to delay the elections on security grounds. He
contends Karzai can credibly argue that prevailing
instability in the south and east would unfairly deny the
Pashtuns their right to vote. Elections that gave
disproportionate weight to Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara voters,
Sanjar argues, would be undemocratic. So far, Sanjar said,
Karzai has resisted his arguments.
4. (C) Comment: Over the short term, we expect more Karzai
supporters, panicked by gloomy long-range elections
predictions, to attempt to pressure the president into
delaying the elections. We will work to counter their
pressure and reinforce Karzai's better instincts.
WOOD