NANGARHAR PROVINCE: SPEEDBUMPS FAIL TO SLOW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001582 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS, EUR/RPM NSC FOR WOOD OSD FOR WILKES CENTCOM FOR CG CSTC-A, CG CJTF-101 POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON AF SUBJECT: NANGARHAR PROVINCE: SPEEDBUMPS FAIL TO SLOW POSITIVE MOMENTUM KABUL 00001582 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Recent suicide attacks and insurgent incursions have failed to dissuade Nangarhar residents from the belief that their province is secure. Residents routinely cite economic concerns as the major problem before security concerns. Nangarharis are concerned about recent events in Pakistan, but Nangarhar security forces and their Coalition partners have denied insurgents significant footholds in the province. Reconstruction continues apace, with major road and irrigation projects the most visible signs of progress. Nangarhar is poised for rapid economic growth if sufficient electricity and integrated transportation become a reality. Governance remains the most problematic component of the three-fold assistance effort. Security: Nangarharis Proud of Their Province's Stability -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Nangarhar remains the most stable and prosperous province along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Insurgent attacks against Afghan border outposts and district centers since the beginning of the year have almost doubled compared to the same period last year, but still remain at relatively low levels. The attacks are normally superficial, and insurgents are unable to stand toe-to-toe with Nangarhar security forces. Despite three recent suicide attacks (one against the Khogyani district governor in April and two against Coalition convoys),daily life in the province remains nearly unaffected. Local residents still pride themselves on the province's relative stability even as they harbor apprehensions about possible future suicide attacks. Recent events in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) adjacent to Nangarhar, including the establishment of multiple insurgent outposts and the growing influence of Mangal Bagh, concern provincial officials and residents alike. Insurgent infiltration has thus far focused on the southeast quadrant of the province (in the Shinwari tribal area adjacent to the Khyber Agency) and the northeast corner (adjacent to the Mohmand Agency). To date, Afghan and Coalition forces have successfully reacted to these evolving threats and denied the insurgents a significant foothold in the province. Development: Lots of Roads -------------- ¶3. (U) Reconstruction activities continue apace. Residents consistently say life is better in Nangarhar now than three years ago, although rural reconstruction is lagging along the central transportation/population corridor. Major road construction is the most visible sign of progress. A Pakistani-funded project to widen the Torkham-Jalalabad Highway to four lanes is nearing completion, as is a European Commission-funded city bypass road. Four PRT-funded hardtop roads leading from the highway to major district centers are entering their final construction phases. The PRT recently broke ground on a project to replace siphons along the Duranta Canal, Nangarhar's agricultural lifeblood. In the provincial capital Jalalabad, the installation of traffic lights at major intersections is injecting a sense of order to the increasingly congested traffic. ¶4. (U) Local residents often cite food prices and unemployment as more pressing threats than insurgents. The lack of electricity remains the greatest hindrance to economic development. The provincial government recently installed approximately one megawatt of diesel generation capacity in Jalalabad, but it is heavily subsidized for residential use and has not led to economic growth. Nangarhar is now at the point where reliable and affordable electricity and an integrated transportation system -- including additional roads in the province's south, a rail link to Pakistan, and a regional airport -- will lead to rapid economic expansion. Governance: Lags Behind Security and Development -------------- --- ¶5. (SBU) The Nangarhar provincial government functions fairly well, but the effort to improve provincial and district-level governance still lags behind the security and development efforts. Many jobs are unfilled or occupied by unqualified individuals. Governor Sherzai continues to exercise strong KABUL 00001582 002 OF 002 leadership and to support the Coalition, but fails to tackle serious administrative shortcomings. In particular, he still has not installed key Kabul-appointed officials, such as a provincial Chief Executive, and has refused to recognize a Presidential Directive ordering a halt to the collection of "reconstruction taxes" at the border. The Provincial Council is playing an increasingly active and effective role as a mediator between the government and the people. Provincial officials remain committed to combating poppy, but worry that a tangible "reward" for last year's effort has failed to materialize. WOOD