FARYAB: STABLE SECURITY, BUT PROVINCIAL OFFICIALS'

UNCLAS KABUL 001576 DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS, EUR/RPM NSC FOR WOOD OSD FOR WILKES CENTCOM FOR CG CSTC-A, CG CJTF-101 POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ECON AF SUBJECT: FARYAB: STABLE SECURITY, BUT PROVINCIAL OFFICIALS' PERFORMANCE IS MIXED ¶1. (U) Summary: Faryab suffered a severe winter and is currently suffering drought. Faryab is generally secure. Provincial governance performance remains mixed; the Governor and the Provincial Council President are positive forces, while other government institutions such as the provincial police and line ministries need improvement. Security: Stable but Fragile -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Faryab security remains stable but fragile. The two principal threats are: - Destabilizing activities by insurgents from Badghis's Ghormach district. This activity has potential to stir up ethnic tensions between Badghis's Pashtuns and Faryab's Uzbeks. It could escalate violence and inter-tribal retaliations. - Dostum's Junbesh Party. While there have been no recent problems with Junbesh, it remains the major political force in the province and can quickly create protests and/or disturbances. ¶3. (SBU) Radical Uzbeks from Ankhoi and Dawlatabad districts represent a growing security concern. PRT Maymana believes some mosques in these districts have ties to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Pakistan. There are also indications that Uzbeks from these areas actively participate in the Badghis insurgency. ¶4. (SBU) ANSF in Faryab consists of Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP),which includes the Afghan Border Police (ABP). The ANA is trusted, while the ANP and the ABP among them are less respected. At PRT Maymana, the Norwegians are growing in capability and numbers. They have added three helicopters to the PRT and plan to add more troops as RC North's Quick Reaction Force transitions from Norwegian to German troops. Development: Ring Road and Schools are Priorities -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) Road clearing for the Ring Road is nearing completion and asphalting continues. Electrical power is largely limited to the power line connecting Maymana to the Turkmenistan power grid. Norwegian funds will fund water and sanitation projects and rural development. ¶6. (U) The Government of Norway (GoN) is paying special attention to school construction and teacher training. It has budgeted funds for the construction of 82 primary schools for 2008 and another 140 in ¶2009. PRT Maymana has coordinated the school construction through the Ministry of Education. The Norwegians will provide the funds to the Ministry of Education, which will then be responsible for the construction. The GoN, through the Norwegian Refugee Council, is training teachers in Afghanistan's northern provinces. Since they started the program, they have trained about 4000 teachers. In 2007, they trained 1130 teachers in Faryab. Governance: Shafaq is Effective, PTS is Broken -------------- - ¶7. (U) Governor Shafaq is involved in the details of governance. He has proven adept at maintaining the provincial balance of power between GIRoA and Junbesh elements. The Provincial Council (PC) is weak, poorly attended, and inactive. Line ministry performance varies considerably. The line ministry for Education is the most organized and effective. Faryab suffered a severe winter and is currently suffering from a drought. These back-to-back problems will test the provincial government if they lead to large-scale unemployment, internally displaced persons, and disputes over scarce resources. ¶8. (SBU) The Program Takhim-E-Sohl (PTS) for insurgent reconciliation is weak at best; it is unclear if PTS officials have even visited the province. To fill the void, PC President Jinab formed a Peace and Reconciliation Council. Led by Jinab and consisting of provincial warlords, elders and other government officials, the council has attracted insurgents to negotiate with the government and participate in the Disarmament of Illegally Armed Groups progam. ¶9. (U) PRT Maymana is very involved with Rule of Law (RoL) work. The GoN has assigned police advisors, prison advisors, and a legal advisor to monitor and mentor the provincial judicial system. The PRT Legal Advisor says that there has been an 80 percent increase in the caseload heard by the provincial court system since Norwegian RoL efforts began in 2006. WOOD