ANTI-KARZAI JUNBESH CONGRESS ELECTS PRO-DOSTUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001504 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/A, NSC FOR WOOD OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-101 POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV AF SUBJECT: ANTI-KARZAI JUNBESH CONGRESS ELECTS PRO-DOSTUM PARTY LEADER REF: KABUL 1460 Classified By: A/POLCOUNS Jeremiah Howard for reasons 1.4 (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Junbesh party congress, held June 17-19 in Kabul after more than a year of dithering and political maneuvering, waxed strongly anti-Karzai and reaffirmed General Dostum's control of the Uzbek political machine. During the three-day event, speakers criticized Karzai's perceived negative impact on Afghanistan and fanned Uzbeks' concern that the President is biased against them. Dostum proxy Sayed Norullah was elected party president. Norullah's election ended more than a year of efforts by reformers to wrest party control from its founder. The Uzbeks' antipathy for Karzai, coupled with Hazaras gathering hostility for a president they perceive as increasingly pro-Pashtun, suggest Karzai would have great difficulty achieving a first-round victory if the election were held today. End Summary. Junbesh Conference Strongly Anti-Karzai -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Junbesh leaders opened their long-awaited third national congress by criticizing Karzai and stoking anti-government sentiment. National Assembly member Faizullah Zaki delivered a speech highlighting Junbesh leaders' frustration with the president's perceived weakness. Zaki criticized Karzai for his failure to improve national security, address food shortages and combat drug cultivation. He said Karzai's cronyism, pro-Pashtun bias, and inability to confront corruption are further undermining the country's stability. ¶3. (SBU) Conference organizers maintained the anti-Karzai drum beat by reminding the gathering that former Jawzjan governor Assadullah Hamdard, a Pashtun, had never been punished for his alleged order to fire on Junbesh protesters in Shibirghan in the spring 2007. Several protesters were killed. Junbesh leaders noted with irony that Karzai had appointed Hamdard governor of Paktya instead of imprisoning him. They contrasted Hamdard's "reward" to Karzai's alleged harassment of Dostum, who faces a desultory prosecution effort for assaulting Turkmen leader Akbar Bay in February. Fanning emotions and the assembled Uzbeks' sense of ethnic vulnerability, conference organizers showed graphic video of the Shibirghan shootings. Dostum Still Holds the Reins -------------- ¶4. (C//REL AUS,CAN,UK) Dostum proxy Sayed Norullah easily won the party leadership when three reform candidates, MPs Faizullah Zaki (Jawzjan),Alem Sayee (Takhar),and Shakar Kargar (Jawzjan) bowed out of the contest just before the vote, leaving only a token challenger to face Dostum's man. In post-congress conversations with us, the three reformers (Protect) claimed the election had been rigged. Congress organizer Ismail Munshi (Protect) alleged Dostum spent USD 200,000 buying votes for Norullah. Munshi also accused Dostum of physically threatening the reformers and their supporters. ¶5. (SBU) Norullah's victory frustrated more than a year of organizing and lobbying by reformers; many Uzbeks politicians say privately they would like Dostum to cede power to the next generation, but are afraid to challenge him. Unfortunately, Dostum received a new lease on political life last November when the strongest of the reformers, MP Sibghatullah Zaki, was killed in the Baghlan sugar factory bombing. ¶6. (C//REL AUS,CAN,UK) The reformers nonetheless vowed to carry on. Faizullah Zaki and Shakar Kargar said they would pursue seats for their supporters in the party leadership council. Kargar bravely described the flawed but peaceful transfer of the party's leadership to Norullah, Junbesh's first, a major achievement. Dostum still controls Junbesh, KABUL 00001504 002 OF 002 Kargar admitted, but Norullah's democratic election is a significant step forward. Norullah serves at the pleasure of Junbesh members, he said, and may yet be replaced if he proves unpopular. ¶7. (C//REL ISAF) Comment: Uzbeks' suddenly manifest antipathy for Karzai coupled with Hazaras' gathering hostility for a president they perceive as increasingly pro-Pashtun (REFTEL) suggest Karzai would have great difficulty achieving a first-round election victory today. He has time until the autumn 2009 elections to court Uzbeks and Hazaras. He would be more likely to succeed if he focuses less on behind-the-scenes political maneuvering and more on the effective delivery of government services to his people. DELL