KARZAI THREATENS PAKISTAN AND MEANS IT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001482

SIPDIS


STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A
NSC FOR WOOD
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-101 POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2013
TAGS: MOPS MARR PTER PREL PK AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI THREATENS PAKISTAN AND MEANS IT

Classified By: CDA Christopher Dell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C//REL UK, CAN) Summary: A Palace advisor implied
Karzai would not retract his June 16 threat to strike at
insurgents harboring in Afghanistan. The MFA said Karzai
had not directed his threat against Pakistan's sovereignty
or territorial integrity, but against the Inter-Services
Intelligence Directorate (ISI) for its support of the
insurgency. Karzai is pleased by the popular approval his
bellicosity generated. More thoughtful Afghans condemn him
as irresponsible. They fear an adverse reaction from
Pakistan, upon which Afghans depend increasingly for food
and fuel. We will remind Karzai he has a lot to lose by
provoking Pakistan's anger. The new civilian Pakistani
government may attenuate much of Karza's anger by
following up on its early overtures to the IRoA with
concrete steps. End Sumary.


2. (C//REL CAN, UK) Afghan National Seurity Council Policy
Advisor Daoud Yaqub (Protect; AMCIT) told us June 16 Karzai
"meant ever word" of his previous day's press conference
threat to strike at insurgents harboring in Pakistan.
"This wasn't emotion or an attempt to deflect attention
from Kandahar (the June 13 prison outbreak) or an election
gambit," Daoud said. "The President genuinely feels this
way and has so for a long time." Daoud added Karzai
intended his message not just for the Pakistani government,
but for the international community. "We're tired of foot-
dragging. Karzai has lost his patience." Afghans are
dying, he implied, because the international community is
reluctant to take the fight to the source of the problem,
the terrorists' sanctuaries inside Pakistan. When reminded
that the Afghan military lacks the ability to project power
on its own into neighboring countries, Daoud replied
Pakistan's Baluch separatists had been seeking official
sanction for safe havens inside of Afghanistan. "We are
not without options," he hinted.


3. (C//REL ISAF) In a separate conversation, MFA First
Political Department (Pakistan affairs) Director Abdul
Samad strove for nuance, telling u Karzai intended no
threat to Pakistani sovereignty or territorial integrity.
The presidnt, he said, was challenging the Inter-Services
Intelligence Directorate (ISI) "and those entiies,
operating beyond government control, that support the
insurgents." He confirmed the Pakistani MFA's June 16
convoking of the Afghan ambassador and said the Pakistani
charge had urgently requested a June 17 appointment at the
ministry.


4. (C//REL UK, CAN) Daoud reported Karzai is pleased with
the reaction his threat is generating among Afghans. "We
assess it as 95% positive," he said. "We regret
(Gulbuddin) Hekmatyar broke off negotiations with us
(because of Karzai's press conference),buthe probably
only did so under Pakistani pressre." Daoud interpreted a
statement he attributed to POTUS during his June 16 press
conference in the UK as supportive of Karzai's bellicosity
towards Pakistan.


5. (SBU) Our observations from the Afghan street recorded
widespread emotional support for an aggressive stance
towards Pakistan. We have received reports of public
demonstrations by Afghan Pashtuns encouraging Karzai's
high-profile willingness to challenge perceived Pakistani
government manipulation of its own Pashtun population.


6. (SBU) More thoughtful commentators condemned Karzai'
statements as irresponsible. Noting Afghanistan's
dependence on its neighbors for food and fuel, they worried
Pakistan might react by closing its borders. Opposition
United Front spokesman Sangcharaki dismissed Karzai's
threats as posturing that would do nothing to stem the
erosion of the president's authority and credibility.
Kandahari MP Haji Habibullah Jan lamented Karzai's
bellicosity, saying it would reduce Pakistan's incentive to
cooperate with Afghanistan against terrorism. A second
Kandahari MP, Mohammad Omar Shirzad, said Karzai's Paris
conference success had made him arrogant and intemperate.
Like Jan, Shirzad fears Karzai's statement was a mistake
that could stymie efforts to coordinate Pakistani and
Afghan efforts against their common enemy.


7. (C//REL ISAF) Comment: With his eye on the 2009
elections and mindful of his need to shore up his flagging
popularity Karzai shamelessly pitched this one to the
groundlings. Nevertheless, he is incensed by the recent
Waziristan agreements and remains unshakeable in his belief
- expressed many times to high-level USG visitors - that
ISI is a rogue agency that the government must bring to
heel. The GoP might successfully deflate some of Karzai's
emotions if it follows up on its earlier overtures by
expediting exports of wheat to Afghanistan, manning Border
Control Centers and naming its 25-person Peace Jirga
implementation delegation. We would use such gestures to
get him refocused on the positive, reminding him that he
has much to gain by building on recent momentum with
Islamabad and that his land-locked country cannot afford
poor relations with its principle artery to the world.

DELL