PAKTIA PROVINCE: DETERIORATING SECURITY, LIMITED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000146 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO DAS CAMP, SCA/A STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR JWOOD OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CSTC-A, CG CJTF-82 POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MCAP MOPS PREL PGOV PTER PHUM AF SUBJECT: PAKTIA PROVINCE: DETERIORATING SECURITY, LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, AND POOR GOVERNANCE HAMPER PROGRESS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The security sitQion in Paktia province deteriorated over the past year with significant Anti-Coalition Militia (ACM) presence. The agriculture-based economy is hampered by a lack of resources, including modern technology and power. Governor Rahmat is unpopular and most provincial officials are ineffective, with the exception of an improving Provincial Council. Security -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The overall security situation in Paktia continued to deteriorate as a result of significant increases in IED incidents throughout the province and increasing ACM presence in Zormat district and the Zadran Arc. The districts of Jaji, Chamkani, and Dande Patan, with virtually open borders to Pakistan, were vulnerable to cross-border incursions. Zormat district, on the southwest corner of the province bordering Paktika, Ghazni, and Logar provinces, served as a strategic supply and R&R corridor for insurgents, who still enjoy a measure of popular support from segments of the population. ¶3. (SBU) There was a dramatic increase in IED incidents on roads connecting the provincial capital of Gardez with Zormat. ACM presence in the Zadran Arc districts of Shawk, Garde Serai, and Wazi Zadran increased, with more attacks on the Afghan Army, Afghan National Police and coalition forces. Sarajudin Haqani continued to exert significant influence in Gerda Serai and Zormat districts through his Haqani network. Gerda Serai district is largely loyal to the Haqanis. There have been increasing reports of small Taliban groups moving freely at night around Gardez city. State PRT officer received credible reports of threatening "night letters" delivered to members of the Paktia Provincial Council. Development -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Paktia is a relatively poor, agricultural province, with most agriculture based on backward, subsistence farming. The agricultural sectors that offer the most potential are apple, apricot, and grape farming based largely in Ahmad Abad, Syed Karam, Zormat and Gardez districts. The Pakistan border districts of Jaji and Chamkani produce potato, dried fruit, and vegetable harvests for 
sale to Pakistan. The lack of appropriate technology, assistance from the central government, adequate roads, and energy impedes growth in the agricultural sector. Due to lack of storage facilities, Paktia farmers are forced to sell their products to Pakistan at significantly lower prices. ¶5. (SBU) Over the next two to three years, three major USAID road projects -- the Khost-Gardez, Gardez-Jaji, and Gardez-Paktika roads - will open up the province to neighboring markets and significantly reduce transportation costs. The provincial and central governments, however, must address the lack of available energy for the commercial and agricultural sectors. The deteriorating security situation has caused private investors to pull back from some important projects, such as the development of a commercial and tourist park in Gardez city. Governance -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Governor Ramatullah Rahmat was appointed in February 2007 to replace the very popular Governor Taniwal, who was assassinated in October 2006. Rahmat, a former provincial official during the Soviet occupation, was appointed with the full support of UNAMA, for whom he worked as a tribal liaison for five years. As a result of his caustic personality, Rahmat has alienated key tribal elders throughout the province. Likewise, he has ignored the Provincial Council and excluded the line ministers from the local decision-making process. ¶7. (SBU) Corruption scandals continued to negatively affect Gardez as the sitting mayor was fired for taking kickbacks in a land scheme. The situation was further complicated when the previous, also corrupt, mayor was rehired to replace the fired mayor. Overall, line ministers exercised little influence over local decisions and were marginalized by Governor Rahmat. Nearly all line ministers are unqualified for the positions they hold, receive little or no direction from their Kabul ministries, and appear unclear regarding their responsibilities. Most district governors KABUL 00000146 002 OF 002 are unqualified for the positions they hold, are generally disengaged from day-to-day local activities and projects, and receive all direction from the governor. ¶8. (SBU) Provincial Chief of Police Esmatullah cooperates closely and is responsive to the PRT, and, thus far, has not been linked to corruption. However, there are numerous reports that the Afghan National Police (ANP) continue to set up illegal toll checkpoints and to shake down merchants in Gardez and the outlying districts. ¶9. (SBU) The Provincial Council (PC),however, has developed in a positive direction in the last two years, with mentoring from the National Democratic Institute. Despite lack of support from the central government or the Governor, the PC played a key role in the development of the Provincial Development Plan, acting as the bridge between the tribes and the provincial government. The Paktia PC is now working closely with the PRT to help resolve tribal conflicts, including historic land disputes. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: The problems in Paktia stand in distinct contrast to progress being made elsewhere in RC-East, particularly the neighboring provinces of Khost and Nangarhar. Two of the variables that have contributed to success in the latter are strong Afghan leadership and improved communications (road). The USAID road projects will help address part of this, but poor governance will remain a challenge. WOOD