The Wheat Crop in Nuristan - A Tough Row to Hoe

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001051 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO SCA/A, S/CRS, EUR/RPM NSC FOR WOOD OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CSTC-A, CG CJTF-101 POLAD SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR EAID EFIN PGOV AF SUBJECT: The Wheat Crop in Nuristan - A Tough Row to Hoe ¶1. Summary: As wheat matures on the terraces of lower Nuristan, some provincial residents are concerned that the crop will not meet their expectations. With the price of a 50-kg bag of flour reaching 3000 Afghanis (USD 60) in the interior of the province, people are scrambling to make ends meet. Residents are not aware of global trends and blame rising local prices on events at the Pakistan border. The good news is that some basic improvements in agricultural methods can help the situation in the medium-term: more efficient irrigation, improved seed, targeted sowing methods and pesticides. Concerns Belie Apparent Abundance -------------- ¶2. The terraces of lower Nuristan are lush with a maturing crop of winter wheat. Residents fear, however, that the upcoming harvest will not last until the next crop, and they will have to obtain flour through the cash economy. Prices have fluctuated over the past few months. Near FOB Kala Gush, a 50-kg bag of wheat flour has been selling in the market for between 1260 to 1960 Afghanis (USD 26 to 41) since January. Deeper into Nuristan, however, prices now reach upwards of 3000 Afghanis. As the Nurgram District Agriculture Director told the PRT, "I make 200 Afghani a month, so even I can't afford to buy flour." Most residents will barter or borrow wheat from neighbors who have more, while some will turn to the few relatively wealthy people in the area to borrow money. While this year's move away from poppy cultivation will help increase local wheat supplies, there could be pressure to plant poppy next year to earn money to buy flour. In the meantime, people will depend more on their livestock, which forage on whatever vegetation is within reach. ¶3. Local theories on the reason for higher wheat prices do not touch on global issues. Elders from Waigal District told the PRT they had not heard about the rise in global food prices. Instead, the local view extends as far as the Pakistan border. Even there, Nuristanis see transitory reasons for price spikes: they have cited the closure of Torkham Gate during the Pakistani elections, road closures due to weather, instability in Pakistan, or a Pakistani policy of punishing Afghanistan by restricting cross-border wheat exports. A Pound of Cure -------------- ¶4. Locals understand with more precision that they can expand production with better agricultural methods. Nurgram farmers use 25 to 30 kg of seed per jerib (one jerib is approximately one-half an acre). This yields about 840 kg of wheat -- rather disappointing in a region that has year-round sources of water. In the hills of Do-Ab District, yields are less than half that amount. The good news is that some basic, low-cost improvements can help. -- Water: The distribution of water has long been among the most important matters of local governance in Nuristan. The rehabilitation and development of irrigation canals is a recurring request to the local government (and to the PRT). However, there is also a need for more efficient use of water. Farmers flood their terraces two or three times each month. Better water storage facilities and a more precise application of water to the crops could help address water shortages. -- Seed: Locals plant with seed from the prior year's crop. This means seed quality declines over the course of many years. Access to improved seed could deliver returns in one season. However, according to the Do-Ab District Sub-Governor, Qari Daoud, NGO distribution of improved seeds has not worked well in the past. In some cases, the people who received the seed used it to make bread to sell. In others, the seed was not suitable for local conditions, and failed to ripen. The Sub-Governor recommended a more careful use of seed on demonstration farms, with management by the government. -- Sowing: Locals still broadcast seed over the terraces. Sowing in rows would permit both better growth and more efficient water usage. It would also facilitate weeding, a critical element of cultivation to improve nutrient uptake of the wheat plant. -- Plant health: A red worm has made an appearance locally. This is not yet a major problem, but locals have voiced a need for pesticides. To date, there is no evidence of wheat rust. KABUL 00001051 002 OF 002 ¶5. The use of new varieties and methods will not help the situation over the next few months. Progress is possible, but a people used to living on the margins of self-sufficiency will still have a tough row to hoe. WOOD