ABU MAZEN'S ECONOMIC ADVISOR ON OPIC, TELECOM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 000350 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NEA/IPA FOR GOLDBERGER/SHAMPAINE/BELGRADE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/PASCUAL; TREASURY FOR SZUBIN/GRANT/HARRIS/NUGENT/HIRSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/18 TAGS: ECON EFIN EPET EINV ECPS KWBG IS SUBJECT: ABU MAZEN'S ECONOMIC ADVISOR ON OPIC, TELECOM, HOUSING AND GAS PROJECTS REF: A. 07 JERUSALEM 1575 ¶B. 07 JERUSALEM 1921 ¶C. 07 TEL AVIV 3575 Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: PA Presidential Economic Advisor Mohammad Mustafa told the Consul General that local banks have begun issuing loans backed by a loan guarantee facility established by OPIC last year. There have been signs of progress in the effort to secure Israeli release of frequencies for the new mobile telecommunications company, though bureaucratic and technical hurdles remain. Mustafa hoped an agreement on frequency allocation could be reached by mid-March, at which point the PA would receive an initial payment of almost USD 100 million. Mustafa said that BG Group negotiations with Israel over the sale of gas from offshore Gaza remain stalled over price, revenue allocation, double taxation, and guaranteed gas supplies to Gaza. Planning for a PA-backed affordable housing project continues to move forward. It's success, however, hinges on the availability of long-term loans through the establishment, with OPIC support, of a new mortgage finance facility. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) PA Presidential Economic Advisor and Palestine Investment Fund (PIF) CEO Mohammad Mustafa, accompanied by PIF Director of Palestinian Investments Durgham Maraee, met with Consul General February 22 and provided an overview of several ongoing projects poised to provide significant benefits to the PA and the Palestinian economy. Loan Guarantee Facility -------------- ¶3. (C) Mustafa reported that the loan guarantee facility established by OPIC, PIF, and the Aspen Institute in July 2007 (ref a) is now backing loans to small and medium enterprises. Six banks have been approved to participate in the program and four banks are now lending. Mustafa estimated that as many as 60 loans will be disbursed by mid-year, and 8-10 banks will be involved by end of year. He added that, under a new initiative, lower value agricultural loans will be packaged and then backed by the program. The Consul General and Mustafa discussed ways of better publicizing the program's benefits. Without naming the banks involved or individual loan beneficiaries, PIF will look to quantify job gains, numbers of loans, and loan amounts as a means of both measuring and publicizing the program's impact. Wataniya Frequencies -------------- ¶4. (C) Mustafa said that progress has been made in recent weeks on securing the GOI's release of frequencies for the second mobile telecommunication service in West Bank/Gaza, an issue that has been pending for nearly 18 months (ref b). Mustafa said that the Israeli PM's office approved in writing the allocation of the requested frequencies in mid-December ¶2007. After learning that GOI MOD approval was also required, the PA was able to obtain a no-objection letter from the MOD. ¶5. (C) However, at the technical level, progress remains uneven. The Palestinians require release of both 900 MHz and 1800 MHz frequencies and guarantees that equipment will be allowed into the West Bank. Mustafa said that securing 900 MHz was "a sure thing" but the GOI is resisting any firm commitment on the 1800 MHz frequencies. The Israelis also requested that the PA explicitly state that Gaza will be denied access to the second provider's (Wataniya) services. Mustafa stated that the PA does not want to "politicize" the process by excluding Gaza because opponents of President Abbas will use it against him. As a practical matter, Mustafa continued, the inability to get Wataniya equipment into Gaza will prevent any coverage there, and Wataniya does not plan to launch service in Gaza in the near term. Mustafa said the PA wishes to avoid a scenario whereby it would have to go back to the Israelis in the future and secure permission to extend Wataniya services to Gaza. ¶6. (C) Mustafa asked the U.S. to encourage the GOI to sign a frequency allocation agreement soon, drop mention of Gaza, and give a date for 1800 MHz availability. He asserted that the Wataniya project is "ready to go." The company already has 100 employees at its headquarters and will add 300 more JERUSALEM 00000350 002 OF 002 people and sign 200 contracts in the three months following the frequency release. Allocation of the frequencies, therefore, will provide immediate and significant benefits to the Palestinian people. In addition, Wataniya will pay the PA almost $100 million. Mustafa said the PA has a draft agreement and hopes for a signing in mid-March, if the remaining obstacles can be overcome. Gaza Gas Talks Still Stalled -------------- ¶7. (C) Mustafa said that BG Group-GOI negotiations over the sale of Gaza gas to Israel broke off in late 2007 because BG has grown frustrated with the lack of movement on price, flow of funds, guaranteed supply to Gaza, and double taxation (ref c). (Note: BG Group is operator of an exploration license for Gaza Marine Field, 36 km off the Gaza coast, with reserves estimated to be around 1 trillion cubic feet (TCF) End note.) Given the significant rise in oil and gas prices, BG believes the sale price of gas must increase, but, according to Mustafa, the Israelis refuse to budge. Mustafa said the GOI has insisted that conditions be placed on how revenue flows to the PA, but the PA, while open to regular audits, refuses to accept that the payments it receives be "administered." The PA also is concerned that the GOI will be able to cut the onward flow to the Gaza power plant if the gas is piped to Israel first. At the PA's behest, therefore, BG requested that gas supplies to Gaza be guaranteed, said Mustafa, but the GOI rejected this condition. Mustafa asserted that the PA prefers to sell the gas to the Israelis because it will be a confidence building measure fostering greater economic cooperation and interdependence. Mustafa estimated that, if the project is successful, the PA will take in USD 1 billion over 10 years. In addition, converting the Gaza power plant to natural gas will save the PA an almost equal amount over the same period, according Mustafa. Housing and Mortgage Facility -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Mustafa said that the PIF is supporting an affordable housing project aimed at creating 30,000 housing units -- mostly apartments -- on 7-10 sites in the West Bank. The project targets young couples currently renting small apartments or living with parents. The average cost of a unit is targeted at USD 50-60,000, with a mortgage payment of about $300 a month. Mustafa said that PIF will invest in the project, work with local developers, obtain donor funding for infrastructure, and press for necessary legislative and regulatory changes. ¶9. (SBU) The lack of long-term mortgage market also puts home ownership out of reach, Mustafa continued, so PIF has been working with OPIC to establish a new mortgage facility that will provide affordable long-term housing loans. IFC may take a stake in the venture, but requires a "first loss" investor. Mustafa said that Quartet Special Representative Tony Blair has approached the UK's DFID about such an investment. A private bank has also expressed interest. Mustafa asserted that funding for the mortgage facility may reach USD 400 million in a month. (Note: OPIC and PIF have already to provide USD 250 million and USD 75 million in guarantees, respectively. End note.) WALLES