PA ELECTIONS IN GAZA NOT FEASIBLE, SAY PLO,

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002254 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/PASCUAL/RAMCHAND E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2018 TAGS: KWBG IS PGOV PTER PREL KDEM SUBJECT: PA ELECTIONS IN GAZA NOT FEASIBLE, SAY PLO, INDEPENDENT LEADERS Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Greg Marchese, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. According to Gaza political contacts, the PA cannot hold elections in the Gaza Strip due to strong Hamas opposition. Barring (improbable) reconciliation between the PLO and Hamas, concurrent West Bank/Gaza elections are not feasible, they suggested. Independent and PLO leaders say there is no legal mechanism for appointing representatives for Gaza if Hamas obstructs elections or constituting a PLC with only West Bank members. End summary. Hamas Dead-Set Against New PLC Elections or Combined PLC/Presidential Polls -------------- ¶2. (C) PLO Executive Committee (ExComm) member Riyad al-Khudari (strictly protect) told PolOff by phone from Gaza December 16 that Hamas will not allow elections to be held in Gaza. While PLO ExComm Secretary-General Yassir Abd Rabbo accurately presented the ExComm consensus (as well as President Abbas' position) in calling for combined Presidential/PLC elections in the first half of 2009, there is no realistic way to hold elections in Gaza without Hamas' consent, he said. ¶3. (C) Al-Khudari predicted that Hamas will use force to prevent registration or voting. He said Hamas is not serious about its public position that only new Presidential elections should be held. Instead, he believes Hamas is focused on "de-recognizing" President Abbas. ¶4. (C) Independent, Gaza-based PLC member Rawiya al-Shawwa told PolOff by phone December 16 that Hamas PM Ismayil Haniyah told her that Hamas will not allow elections without first restructuring the PA according to a national reconciliation agreement signed by all factions. She commented that Hamas has complete internal control of Gaza, making elections impossible without their cooperation. While she accepts President Abbas' call for elections in the first half of 2009 at face value, she said many of Abbas' advisors see it as a purely tactical move, and will press Abbas to retain the Presidency throughout 2009 when Hamas rejects new elections. ¶5. (C) Another Gaza contact who frequently meets with Hamas' top leadership told PolOff from Gaza by phone on December 16 that Hamas' leaders do not expect national reconciliation to succeed, and distrust Egypt's intentions in this regard. This contact added that the only voting likely to take place in Gaza soon will be in internal Hamas "elections" for leadership structures, as Hamas is interested in ruling Gaza, not in elections that risk its power. Elections "For But Not In" Gaza Not Regarded as Legitimate -------------- ¶6. (C) Al-Khudari told PolOff that some of President Abbas' advisors have pushed for selection of Gaza representatives drawn from West Bank-based Gaza exiles if Hamas obstructs elections. He said there is no legal mechanism to appoint PLC members or "elect" a PLC member without Gaza voting. He added that, even if Gazans were appointed to the PLC, they would be arrested by Hamas if resident in Gaza, and considered illegitimate by most Gazans if resident in the West Bank. He also said the Palestinian Basic Law and elections law do not allow for a PLC constituted only of West Bank representatives. CEC: Can't Do Elections Without Hamas Consent -------------- ¶7. (C) PA Central Elections Committee (CEC) officials told PolOff December 17 that the prerequisites for holding elections in Gaza as well as the West Bank are a favorable security situation, availability of registration and polling centers, and free movement between the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Without Hamas consent, these officials said, elections across the PA, including Gaza, are not possible. MARCHESE