PA SECURITY CHIEFS: NO CHANGES IN IDF INCURSIONS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 001691 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA, NSC FOR ABRAMS/PASCUAL/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018 TAGS: KWBG PGOV IS PREL PTER SUBJECT: PA SECURITY CHIEFS: NO CHANGES IN IDF INCURSIONS; WEAK COORDINATION CONTINUES Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. According to the PA National Security Forces (NSF) commander and Jenin security chiefs, IDF incursions into Jenin have continued at generally the same levels since the beginning of 2008, except for a brief reduction in May 2008, when IDF incursions dropped to about half the average level. ConGen statistics show that IDF incursions doubled in July-August compared to May-June, and the 3rd quarter of 2008 has a higher average number of monthly incursions than the 1st or 2nd quarters. PA security officials say they do not perceive a significant overall difference in the number or type of incursions compared to earlier periods. The security chiefs note that IDF incursions into Jenin and surrounding towns continue almost nightly, daytime IDF raids in the Jenin area are common, and that they see no indication that, after repeated high-level meetings with Israeli counterparts, the IDF has changed its operating posture in Area A. End summary. PASF Chiefs Perceive Little Change in Jenin-Area Incursions -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In measuring IDF incursions in 2008 (only counting separate IDF entries into Area A, Jenin Governorate towns, not any B zones or towns near Tubas),the ConGen assembled data from daily RSO and POL reporting, Palestinian Monitoring Group (PMG) reports, and information reported to PolOff/PolFSN from security contacts, screening out duplicate figures. Monthly incursions figures for 2008 are: January: 51 February: 50 March: 48 April: 68 May: 23 June: 41 July: 69 August: 65 September (01-10 Sep only): 27 ¶3. (C) According to NSF commander MG Thiab al-Ali (Abu al-Fatah),there have been "an average of about 45 IDF incursions each month," with a substantial drop in May, for which he gave the figure of 26. He said no temporary reduction in incursions has been sustained more than a few days, with incursions quickly returning to previous levels after short periods of reduced IDF activity. MG Ali said he does not see evidence that the IDF has changed its mode of operations in Jenin or Area A generally since the start of 2008, despite repeated requests made during meetings with senior IDF officers and with Israeli MOD Barak. He added that information sharing is only one-way (ie, PASF to IDF), and in routine (not &hot pursuit8) security operations, Israeli security services do not pass the PASF information about their activities, often entering Jenin and rural areas without prior notice. In some cases, the Israeli District Coordination Office (DCO) informs Palestinian DCO counterparts at the same time that the IDF starts its operations, but does not provide prior notice. ¶4. (C) Separately, Jenin police chief Wasim al-Jayusi and Jenin NSF commander BG Sulayman Imran echoed MG Ali,s comments, adding that the IDF temporarily reduced incursions in May (which they said was the only period with a meaningful reduction in incursions) without the intention to end Area A security operations or alter its operating posture in a permanent way. They commented that the more IDF continues incursions, the harder it is for PASF to enforce law and order and impose security. BG Imran said the IDF,s incursion-free "grace period" in May lasted only 96 hours, with periodic incursions thereafter eventually reverting to higher, previous levels. He said the IDF conducts almost nightly arrest and search operations and daytime undercover raids in the Jenin area. WALLES