DISAGREEMENTS STALLING FATAH SIXTH GENERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001410 SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2038 TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KPAL IS SUBJECT: DISAGREEMENTS STALLING FATAH SIXTH GENERAL CONGRESS PREPARATIONS Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Fatah members told PolSpec in July that PA President Mahmud Abbas and some in the Central Committee are determined to hold Fatah's Sixth General Congress by November, but three principal issues are delaying the Congress. First, Fatah members are divided on whether to hold the Congress in the West Bank or Jordan. Second, the Fatah "Old Guard" wants to limit the total number of delegates to the Congress to 1000, while the "Young Guard" wants broader participation of up to 3000 delegates. Third, some FRC members oppose the draft Fatah political platform because it supports a "failing peace process" and ignores popular support for armed resistance. Personal rivalry between Abbas and diaspora FCC members must also be resolved before the Congress. End summary. FCC HOPES CONGRESS WILL RENEW LEGITIMACY; ABBAS HOPES TO BRING IN NEW LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶2. (C) Fatah Revolutionary Council (FRC) members Samir Shehadah and Muhammad al-Madani separately told PolSpec that President Abbas (Abu Mazen) and some in the Fatah Central Committee (FCC) are determined to hold the Fatah Sixth General Congress by November. Shehadah, a Ramallah native, is "Old Guard" but supports the grooming of "Young Guard" leaders. He is close to Marwan Barghuthi, but unwilling to let the "Young Guard" upstage more experienced leaders like himself. Al-Madani returned from Tunis during Oslo and supports FCC member Ahmad Qurei' (Abu Ala'),a stalwart of the Old Guard". ¶3. (C) Shehadah and al-Madani said FCC members, including Abbas, want the Congress to relegitimize their authority. However, Shehadah said Abbas has commented frequently in recent meetings that the Congress is also an opportunity to add new members to the movement's leadership structures. Shehadah said Abbas wants to maintain the Old Guard's authority while grooming new leaders for the movement. Shehadah said Fatah's "Old Guard", who earlier believed Muhammad Dahlan had the potential to upset their hold on power, now want to hold the Congress while Dahlan is out of political favor. ¶4. (C) Fatah contacts told PolSpec that the Preparatory Committee for the Congress met in Amman July 29 to August 1. Shehadah and al-Madani said no real progress would be made toward holding the Congress until the FCC meets to resolve the three principal issues delaying the Congress: 1. its location; 2. the number of delegates; and 3. the political platform. DISAGREEMENT OVER VENUE FOR THE CONGRESS -------------- ¶5. (C) Shehadah and al-Madani said Abbas and some FCC members feel they have stronger support in the territories and want the Congress held in the West Bank (Bethlehem or Jericho). They said other FCC members, including Qurei', Faruq Qaddumi, Muhammad Ghunaym and Muhammad Jihad, and many FRC members want the Congress abroad (probably in Jordan) because they have stronger diaspora support. Al-Madani said those who want to hold the Congress abroad also cite Israeli interference as a reason. DISAGREEMENT OVER TYPE, NUMBER OF DELEGATES TO THE CONGRESS -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Al-Madani said Fatah members disagree over the total number of delegates and the selection process. He said the FCC decided, with support from Abbas and Qurei', to limit the Congress to 1000 delegates. Younger Fatah members -- including Marwan Barghuthi -- want at least 3000 participants. Ramallah Fatah Regional Committee member Bassam al-Tamimi, a "Young Guard" activist and supporter of Barghuthi, told PolSpec he believes that only broad participation can prevent splintering, and fewer than 3000 delegates will prompt some grassroots leaders to break away. ¶7. (C) Al-Madani said Fatah leaders also disagree on the number of delegates from the diaspora and the security forces. He said former Minister of the Interior Nasser Yusif -- an "Old Guard" FCC member -- wants at least 51 percent from the security forces and has promised "scores of former Fatah fighters" in Lebanon and Syria seats at the Congress to ensure his FCC reelection. They added that Yusif has already presented lists of hand-selected security force delegates to the Congress Preparatory Committee, rather than holding JERUSALEM 00001410 002 OF 002 internal elections to pick security force representatives. Other FCC members have argued against such high security force representation and the issue remains unresolved, al-Madani said. DISAGREEMENT OVER FATAH'S NEW POLITICAL PLATFORM -------------- --- ¶8. (C) Al-Madani and Shehadah said many FRC members oppose the draft political platform that has been circulated within Fatah, because they say it supports a "failing peace process". According to al-Madani and Shehadah, many FRC members want the platform to emphasize the occupation and refer to armed resistance. Shehadah speculated that reaching agreement on the platform will be difficult. RESOLUTION PENDING ABBAS-QADDUMI RECONCILIATION -------------- -- ¶9. (C) FRC member Adnan Samara, of the "Old Guard" and a potential FCC candidate, told PolSpec that disagreement between Abbas and his external rivals Faruq Qaddumi and Muhammad Ghunaym is also delaying preparations for the Congress. Samara was optimistic about rapprochement between Abbas and Qaddumi, saying Qaddumi is more amenable now, because he perceives the Syrians to be stepping away from him. Samara said he expects Abbas and Qaddumi to meet soon. However, other Fatah contacts said quick rapprochement is unlikely. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Although Abbas and key FCC members are determined to hold the Sixth General Congress by November, they still face significant obstacles. Resolving the venue, number of delegates and political platform is more than a simple FCC decision; it will require a great deal of work, which might stretch beyond Abbas's target November date. If Abbas holds the Congress without resolving these issues, his efforts could backfire and provoke a split by grassroots leaders or a re-election of the current leadership that is widely perceived as corrupt and illegitimate. WALLES