PAPUA -- KEY MINING TOWN GEARS UP FOR LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000874 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/ANP, DRL/AWH NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SUBJECT: PAPUA -- KEY MINING TOWN GEARS UP FOR LOCAL ELECTION REF: 07 JAKARTA 3100 JAKARTA 00000874 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4 (b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The south-central Papua district of Mimika--site of U.S. mining giant Freeport-McMoRan's operations--will elect local officials on May 19 in the first direct election of its type in the area. There are few substantive differences among in the candidates' platforms, but the election will be fiercely contested nonetheless. The race will be a test of local democracy in one of Papua's most developed areas and one which has suffered from its share of volatility. Pol/C will be leading a U.S. team to Papua next week which will take the temperature of the political situation in the province. END SUMMARY. ELECTION SET FOR MAY 19 ¶2. (U) The Election Commission in the central Papua district of Mimika has announced that the election for bupati (district regent) and vice bupati will be held on May 19. The Commission has certified four pairs of candidates for the race and campaigning has already begun. The winner will serve a five-year term. It is the first-ever direct election for bupati in the area. (Note: Mimika encompasses the operational area of the giant Grasberg Mine, operated by the U.S. company Freeport-McMoRan. Most of the district's approximately 200,000 residents live in the capital Timika and depend--directly or indirectly--on Freeport for their livelihood.) THE CONTENDERS ¶3. (C) The Favorites: According to most observers, Klemen Tinal and running mate H. Abd Muis are the early favorites. (Note: Tinal is an indigenous Papuan Christian while Muis is a Muslim whose family comes from outside the province. Three of the four candidate pairs follow this same demographic pattern.) Seven political parties--led by Golkar--have endorsed the pair. Tinal served as an appointed bupati 2002-2007 and has both name recognition and experience. He also has a reputation for corruption and was absent from Timika during much of his previous tenure as bupati. Name recognition, Golkar's well-established political machine, and a big war chest gives the Tinal-Muis ticket the early advantage. ¶4. (C) The Challengers: Yoseph Yopi Kilangin and Yohanes Helyanan are likely to mount the strongest challenge. Kilangin, the scion of a prominent Timika family--the local airport is named for his father--serves as the speaker of the local legislature; Helyanan is a prominent businessman. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) leads the four-party coalition backing the pair. The Kilangin/Helyanan ticket has enough money to make the race competitive, although PDI-P is not as strong in Papua as in other areas. The other two sets of candidates are believed to be long shots. THE ISSUES AND THE CAMPAIGN ¶5. (C) Substantive differences among the candidates are conspicuous by their absence. The candidates have generally promised lavish spending on government projects--including roads, hospitals, and schools--and pledged to deliver economic prosperity if elected. Also key to the campaign are a staple of Papuan politics--campaign rallies. Candidates woo supporters at these large events by providing food, drinks and various gifts. With their brimming coffers, Tinal and Muis have the edge in this element of Papuan retail politics. IMPLICATIONS ¶6. (C) Pol/C will be leading a U.S. team to Papua next week which will take the temperature of the political situation in the province. Mimika is one of Papua's richest and most JAKARTA 00000874 002.2 OF 002 ethnically diverse districts--a result of the economic draw of Freeport's operation. Freeport's investment in the district--especially building schools, clinics and roads--gives the district a head start on the kind of development that the provincial government hopes to see across the region. ¶7. (C) One key issue will be the bupati's relationship with Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu and his administration. Initial indications are not good. Agus Smule, an advisor close to Suebu, told POLOFF that the Governor had a stormy relationship with Tinal during the latter's previous tenure. Given this, it is hard to see Suebu and Tinal getting along if Tinal wins. ¶8. (C) Also important will be the candidates' relationship with mining giant Freeport-McMoRan. Here too, there is little cause for optimism that all will be smooth. Freeport officials have told POLOFF that Tinal regularly asked for gifts and favors for himself and his family. ¶9. (C) All that said, it is positive that the election is being held. Papuans often feel that everything is decided in Jakarta and this race will allow them to pick their own leaders in a key area. If the election can--as it is supposed to--help bring democracy and decision-making closer to the people, perhaps Mimika area politics will become less volatile over time. (Note: Mimika district is the site of ongoing but low-level tribal violence, most prominently around the village of Banti, located eight miles from the Freeport mine. Timika town has also seen ethnic violence, and was the scene of a two-day riot in November 2007 triggered by a suspicious death in police custody. Reftel.) HUME