FAMILY FEUD ERUPTS IN FORMER PRESIDENT'S PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000728 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID SUBJECT: FAMILY FEUD ERUPTS IN FORMER PRESIDENT'S PARTY REF: JAKARTA 488 JAKARTA 00000728 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate Surabaya. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: A major internal battle has erupted in former president Wahid's Islamic-oriented National Awakening Party (PKB). The ugly feud pits party founder and Muslim moderate Wahid (aka Gus Dur)--who declared his candidacy for president last month--against his cousin, senior parliamentarian Muhaimin Iskandar. Having successfully deposed Iskandar from his perch as party chair, Gus Dur now may install his daughter--Yenny Wahid--in PKB's top spot. Iskandar, for his part, is battling on. Many analysts view the battle as just the latest sign of a party--with major influence in Islamic circles--in meltdown mode. END SUMMARY. FAMILY FEUD ¶3. (C) An important Indonesian Islamic-oriented party is in meltdown mode. For months now, rumors have been swirling about the deteriorating state of relations between PKB chief patron/former president Abdurrachman Wahid (aka Gus Dur) and his cousin, Chief Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Muhaimin Iskandar. The issue finally came to a head on March 26 when Gus Dur prevailed upon PKB's Advisory Council to issue a vote of "no confidence" in Iskandar's leadership of the party (he has been PKB chair since 2005). The non-legally binding vote was intended to cow Iskandar into abandoning his post--but Iskandar did not relent. ¶4. (C) That was not the end of it. When--to everyone's collective surprise--Iskandar failed to buckle in the face of the attempted putsch, Gus Dur simply upped the ante, and directed his proxies on the Central Board to finish the job. On April 5, the PKB Central Board once again demonstrated Gus Dur's pre-eminence in the party, voting by an overwhelming majority to dump Iskanadar from the top spot. Gus Dur and his allies on the PKB Central Board have not named a new chair yet (but see more below). THE COUSIN BATTLES ON ¶5. (C) For his part, Muhaimin Iskandar fights on. Despite the evidence to the contrary, Iskandar has refused to acknowledge the legitimacy of the Central Board's vote and asserts that he is still party chair. However, according to party insiders, Iskandar enjoys very limited support within the party and the possibilities of an anti-Gus Dur counter-coup are not high. PKB Deputy Secretary Iksan Abdullah told reporters that if Iskandar refused to accept the Central Board's decision, the party might simply move to dismiss Iskandar from the party entirely, a move that would involve his recall from the Parliament and stripping him of his deputy speaker role (it is an influential position: there are only three deputy speakers). (Note: In the Indonesian political system, parties retain the right to withdraw members from the Parliament at any time for lack of party discipline.) DAUGHTER ON DECK? ¶6. (C) Gus Dur's daughter seems to be the major beneficiary of all the infighting. With Iskandar's dismissal all but secured, the table appears to be set for Yenny Zannuba Wahid to move into PKB's top job. When Yenny Wahid became PKB's Secretary General (the second most powerful job in the party) SIPDIS nearly one year ago, wizened political hands believed Iskandar's fate was all but sealed. With Gus Dur's precarious health always an issue (he is blind, has suffered repeated heart attacks, and has his blood changed every 48 hours to treat severe diabetes),many people believed he JAKARTA 00000728 002.2 OF 002 would move quickly--while he still could--to install his daughter--who he is very close to--in the Chair position. ¶7. (C) Though Gus Dur has not yet publicly endorsed his daughter's candidacy for PKB Chair, Mission contacts and media reports portray her ascent to the top job as all but done. By all accounts, she has acquitted herself well as PKB Secretary General and demonstrated unfailing loyalty to her SIPDIS father, even in the face of sometimes irrational decision-making on his part. She is young (33),however, and has nowhere near the same degree of name recognition and support within the party that her father enjoys. A PARTY ON THE DECLINE ¶8. (C) As outlined in reftel, Mission contacts have long reported on the precipitous decline of the former president's party. Already hemorrhaging members in the wake of Gus Dur's dismissal of the two most recent party heads (in 2002 and 2005),many analysts believe this latest Gus Dur muscle flexing exercise could prove to be disastrous, coming as it does just one year before the 2009 presidential and legislative elections. ¶9. (C) According to party insider Eko Sandjojo, the most recent party battle was only the latest sign that PKB was a party on the decline. While Gus Dur may have legitimately believed he was acting in his party's own best interests, the public feuding--coupled with his ill-conceived decision to run for president--indicated a party in meltdown mode. In Sandjojo's estimation, there was no doubt that PKB would suffer at the polls in 2009 accordingly. That said, with its strong base of support within Indonesia's largest Islamic organization--Nahdlatul Ulama (NU)--PKB still figures to remain a major political player at least through the next election. HUME