AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH KEY POLITICAL PLAYER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000705 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH KEY POLITICAL PLAYER AKBAR TANDJUNG JAKARTA 00000705 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Cameron Hume, resons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met former Indonesian House of Representatives Speaker (DPR) and Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung on April 7. Tandjung, who remains active politically and is a possible candidate for president or vice president next year, discussed his current activities, Papua and Aceh, bilateral defense relations, the global economic slowdown, and the U.S. presidential election. Tandjung also previewed the legislative and presidential elections in 2009. END SUMMARY. A KEY PLAYER ¶2. (C) On April 7, Ambassador Hume called on Akbar Tandjung at the Akbar Tandjung Institute in southern Jakarta. Tandjung--who served as the Chair of Indonesia's largest party, Golkar, until 2004--retains considerable political influence in Indonesia and is widely rumored to be a potential presidential or vice presidential candidate in ¶2009. (Note: In an April 6 interview with a prominent local newspaper, Tandjung confirmed that he is interested in pursuing the presidency.) ¶3. (C) Tandjung reported that since he left the DPR in 2004, he had been busy pursuing a PHD--which he received in 2007--and building up the Akbar Tandjung Institute. Since its inception in 2005, the Akbar Tandjung Institute has steadily developed into a prominent local think-tank. The Institute publishes books and journals on politics and international affairs, holds seminars, and conducts polling. PAPUA AND ACEH ¶4. (C) Noting that Tandjung was from northern Sumatra, Ambassador Hume asked Tandjung about developments in Aceh. Tandjung expressed his sincere hope that the peace in Aceh would hold, noting that the province was endowed with tremendous natural resources and great potential. In Tandjung's view, the Acehenese were working towards a better future and had the budget and wherewithal to maintain the peace. The people of Aceh had already suffered too much, he concluded, and it was a question of good governance at this stage. ¶5. (C) Turning to Papua, Ambassador Hume explained the significance of the issue on Capitol Hill, noting that he had already traveled to the province three times since his arrival last summer. Tandjung and the Ambassador discussed the challenges involved in helping Papua's development, touching in particular on the lack of human capital and the uneven distribution of institutional capacity in Papua. BILATERAL DEFENSE RELATIONS ¶6. (C) In response to a question about military relations, Ambassador Hume noted that all of the restrictions on sales had been lifted. The high cost of U.S. military hardware was an obstacle to heavy sales, however. Ambassador Hume pointed out that while lingering concerns about accountability for past human rights violations remained an issue with the U.S. Congress, on balance military relations were steadily improving. INDONESIA'S ELECTIONS ¶7. (C) On the subject of the 2009 elections in Indonesia, Tandjung reported that over 30 political parties would participate in the legislative elections, scheduled for April 5, 2009. The first round of the presidential elections would then take place on July 5, with the top two finishers competing in a run-off on September 20. Tandjung reported that presidential candidates would be required to meet a presidential threshold, meaning that they would need to secure the support of a party, or a coalition of parties, JAKARTA 00000705 002.2 OF 002 which hold a certain percentage of seats in the DPR. (Note: The DPR is currently debating the threshold issue, and most Mission contacts believe the threshold will be between 10 and 15 percent.) ¶8. (C) Tandjung expressed his hope that the next president would find a way to forge more constructive relations with the DPR. The DPR's influence had risen considerably, and President Yudhoyono had failed to effectively manage his relationship with the lawmaking body. The result, in Tandjung's estimation, had been four years of virtual gridlock. US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE ECONOMY ¶9. (C) Tandjung told the Ambassador that he had been following the presidential primaries in the United States very closely. Noting that Barack Obama had lived in Indonesia for four years, Tandjung observed that Obama could "easily win an election in Indonesia." In response to Tandjung's question about the key issues in the election, the Ambassador observed that the economy and Iraq would both figure prominently in November. NEXT STEPS FOR TANDJUNG ¶10. (C) Tandjung is an important, well-respected player in Jakarta political circles. He is friendly toward the U.S., taking a basically moderate view of key domestic and international issues. We would not be surprised if he was on a ticket as a vice presidential candidate, though two factors would seem to mitigate against the likelihood of a presidential run: a) he is not from Java: and, b) he is not particularly charismatic. In the meantime, beyond his political career, his think-tank is making an important mark. HUME