Action Needed to Identify East Java Mudflow Mitigation

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000659 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO A/S HILL TRAVELING PARTY DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EPET SENV EAID ID SUBJECT: Action Needed to Identify East Java Mudflow Mitigation Funds Ref: SURABAYA 27 (Planned technical assistance progress) 07 SURABAYA 66 (BPLS equipment monitoring request) 07 SURABAYA 41 (BPLS technical assistance request) JAKARTA 00000659 001.2 OF 002 This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: This is an action request. Assistant Secretary Hill visited the Sidoarjo mudflow site in May 2007 and indicated to GOI officials that we were looking for ways to help. In September 2007, a US technical expert identified potential ways to help Indonesia mitigate the humanitarian, economic, and environmental damage caused by the mudflow (Ref C). However, despite general agreement that U.S. technical assistance could help mitigate the damage without entangling us in Indonesian DOMESTIC controversies, we have yet to identify funding for these initiatives. Officials at the Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) continue to request US help to mitigate the disaster and relocate critical infrastructure. Post requests Washington's assistance to identify funding sources for proposed USG assistance. End Summary. No Interest in Blame Game -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Since the mudflow began in May 2006, more than a dozen villages have been inundated and critical infrastructure has been destroyed or is currently threatened. Assistant Secretary Hill visited the mudflow site in May 2007 and indicated to GOI officials that we were looking for ways to help. Each passing day brings new humanitarian hardships, flaming geysers, and land subsidence. The political debate rages on, with the majority of East Javans blaming Lapindo Brantas, the energy company associated with Coordinating Minister for Social Welfare Aburizal Bakrie, while the political elite blame natural causes. The US has no interest in commenting on the causes of the disaster. Rather, our interest lies in helping Indonesian officials mitigate the mudflow's impact on critical infrastructure, livelihoods, homes, and businesses. We believe that US technical assistance will add much-needed impartial scientific authority to those who wish to mitigate present and future effects. ¶3. (SBU) In light of these factors, we believe US assistance should include technical analysis and advice not otherwise available, and focus solely on disaster mitigation of the mudflow and the worsening humanitarian crises caused by it. We will not be party to determinations of liability. What makes Sense? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A US Geological Survey geologist visited BPLS on September 21, 2007 to discuss challenges BPLS faces in managing the mudflow. Since then we understand the State Department, USAID, USGS and US Army Corps of Engineers have met in the US to discuss ways to help. Congen Surabaya and BPLS continue to meet regularly in Indonesia. We agreed on a three-stage plan, each informing the next: 1) A site survey team visit, 2) mapping of the site using Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) technology, and 3)Placement of a US Expert on-site for a year, subject to quarterly review. Site Survey Team -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A team of US geologists would confer on-site with BPLS about current conditions and the significance of proposed LIDAR survey data for mitigation efforts and infrastructure relocation. The site survey team would also assess the need and potential role for a resident U.S. Geologist on site (described below). Survey team members would create terms of reference and advise the Mission on drafting an MOU for the long-term position. The survey team would stay for a period to be determined, but probably on the order of two to three weeks. We request that each agency fund the participation of its members of the inter-agency team. Three key goals of management include: 1) Disposal of the mud; 2) Maintenance of containment structures, and 3) Identification of suitable corridors to relocate critical infrastructure. If stages two and three are needed based on the teams assessment, then an appropriate MOU for each stage will be drafted by Congen Surabaya in concert JAKARTA 00000659 002.2 OF 002 with the Site Survey Team lead and BPLS. Mapping the Mud with LIDAR -------------- ¶6. (SBU) We understand that representatives from the USGS, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the US Naval Oceanographic Office met in Alabama on February 14, 2008 to discuss technical needs for a LIDAR survey of the mudflow. LIDAR would provide a high-precision topography map to serve as a baseline for planning a long term mud management strategy. We understand that the Alabama team prepared a technical proposal for the LIDAR survey, including costs estimates and post-survey data analysis. The team discussed using LIDAR to: ¶1. Identify the size and shape of mud accumulation area; ¶2. Identify the size and shape of subsidence-affected area; ¶3. Determine the rates of mud accumulation and ground subsidence; ¶4. Map sediment movement in river and coastal waters; ¶5. Map the directional flow of mud on land to identify suitable corridors to relocate critical infrastructure; and ¶6. Plan for post-data collection analysis. Looking Ahead--A Resident US Expert on-site -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Based on an assessment of the survey team, a U.S. mitigation expert/advisor could be made available to BPLS for a one year period. The mitigation expert would have offices in Consulate Surabaya and be hosted by BPLS. We would reassess prospects for continued cooperation quarterly in concert with an activity/progress report to be written by the expert. Action Request -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The costs of the survey team visit would include air travel and per diem for two or three experts for 10 to 14 days. The total estimated cost of three overflights and related data analysis for the LIDAR survey is $2 million. We understood from State/EAP that it would allocate $300,000 from an unspecified source for U.S. technical assistance as outlined above. Post would appreciate updated information regarding the status of these funds. HUME