WEST JAVA GOVERNOR'S RACE HEATS UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000633 SIPDIS AIDAC SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/PD NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO ECON ID SUBJECT: WEST JAVA GOVERNOR'S RACE HEATS UP REF: 07 JAKARTA 3058 JAKARTA 00000633 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Pol/C visited Bandung, West Java, March 27-28. West Java--Indonesia's largest province in terms of population--holds its first-ever direct election for governor on April 13. With the race heating up, most observers believe the opposition candidate is gaining traction. The incumbent governor--who is supported by President Yudhoyono--is still very much in the mix, but he is blamed for rising prices and other economic problems. Pol/C also held a public outreach event at a local university, discussing the U.S. presidential election process. END SUMMARY. NOT SO QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT ¶2. (SBU) Pol/C and Pol FSN visited Bandung, the capital of West Java, March 27-28. The city of almost three million--which is located about 180 kilometers southeast of Jakarta--was abuzz over West Java's first-ever direct election for governor, which is slated to take place on April ¶13. According to the Election Commission, outside of the national elections for the presidency and the legislature (the DPR) in 2004, the West Java gubernatorial race is expected to be the largest election in Indonesian history, with over 27 million people registered to vote out of a province-wide population of over 40 million. ¶3. (SBU) Despite earlier reports that the election might be postponed because the voter list was not complete, an Election Commission official asserted that "the election is fully set and will take place as scheduled." He did not foresee any problems, but noted that "in an election this large, tabulation might take some time, so the result might be delayed." THREE RALLIES AND A TRAFFIC JAM ¶4. (SBU) The campaign officially began on March 28, with the three major candidates holding consecutive rallies in Bandung's sprawling version of Manhattan's Central Park (minus the reservoir). Agum Gumelar and his PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) were first up. That rally ended in about an hour, with the red-clad followers of PDI-P filing away from the park. Followers of the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) dressed in black-and-white then took over, cheering for their candidate, Ahmad Heryawan. Yellow-shirt wearing followers of Golkar, the party of incumbent governor Danny Setiawan, came up next. ¶5. (SBU) Perhaps incredibly given Indonesia's lagging reputation for efficiency, all three rallies--which were large, peaceful and well-attended--took place before mid-day and the start of Friday prayer time. Unfortunately, no one seemed to have flagged the whole situation to the city's traffic authorities and, around noon, the city came to a complete standstill. This did not seem to disturb departing rally-goers who eagerly waved and sang songs as their chartered buses steered ever so slowly through the gridlock. THE ACCIDENTAL CANDIDATE ¶6. (C) Observers believe that PDI-P candidate Agum Gumelar is gaining some traction and could beat the incumbent, Danny Setiawan. Gumelar, who is a former commander of KOPASSUS (Army Special Forces),is running an energetic, well-funded campaign. Although from West Java and a member of the area's Sunda majority, Gumelar's candidacy for governor JAKARTA 00000633 002.2 OF 002 surprised many as he had not lived in the region for years. ¶7. (C) Well-known as then president Megawati's Transportation Minister (2001-04),Gumelar had already run failed campaigns for president and for governor of Jakarta before deciding to run in West Java. One wag told Pol/C, "If he had not lost all those races, he would not be running here." That said, observers consider Gumelar smart and focused, with the charisma needed to sway a crowd. He has also been pressing the message that he will work to try to bring down prices and bring jobs to the region. With prices on the way up (see septel and reftels),this has been a popular message. GOLKAR'S BIG CHILL ¶8. (C) If PDI-P is on the upswing, the situation is a bit grim for Golkar. While incumbent Governor Danny Setiawan is considered amiable, and has the considerable funding and campaign apparatus of Golkar on his side, his campaign seems in need of a kick-start. One big reason for this is that, as the incumbent, Setiawan is being blamed for high prices and other economic problems. Setiawan has claimed that he has an economic plan that can work, but he has only just begun to sell that plan. In remarks echoed by others, Vincent Yo, the Chinese-Indonesian director of a local garment company, told Pol/C that he thought that Setiawan was in some trouble because he was not seen as effective and was not a particularly good communicator. OPRAH'S ENDURING POPULARITY ¶9. (U) Pol/C--in a public outreach event at the University of Padjajaran--discussed the U.S. presidential election process. Pol/C made his PowerPoint presentation to about 75 instructors and international relations students. As usual in Indonesia, the students asked many well-informed questions and expressed great interest in the candidacy of Senator Obama. They frequently cited Oprah Winfrey as the source of their information. FIRST OF THE MAJORS ¶10. (C) West Java will be a bit of a test for the Yudhoyono administration. Governor Setiawan is known to be close to Yudhoyono and is supported by the President's Democratic Party. If he loses, it won't look good for the President and could be an indication that rising prices are taking a political toll on those in power. That said, Golkar--though perhaps down for the moment in this race--has a lot of money and a strong organization and still could pull it out. ¶11. (SBU) In any case, West Java is just the first of the major races coming up: gubernatorial races in Central Java and East Java are slated for June 22 and July 28, respectively. While not quite as large as West Java, both of these other provinces are highly populous and vital for success in Indonesian politics. HUME