NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN? -- GUS DUR JOINS 2009 RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000488 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID SUBJECT: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN? -- GUS DUR JOINS 2009 RACE REF: A. 07 JAKARTA 3046 ¶B. 04 JAKARTA 4830 JAKARTA 00000488 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate General Surabaya. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: On March 9, Abdurrachman Wahid (aka "Gus Dur") announced that he will run for president again in 2009. The former president--who is in poor health--faces extremely long odds even if he can overcome several legal hurdles blocking his candidacy. At best, his announcement might boost his struggling party's chances in the 2009 legislative elections. His announcement further underscores the lack of fresh blood in a 2009 race that is quickly shaping up as a battle of the electoral retreads. END SUMMARY. DUSTING HIM OFF FOR ONE MORE RUN ¶3. (C) Gus Dur officially announced his candidacy during a March 9 National Awakening Party (PKB) party gathering at the Sultan Hotel in downtown Jakarta. The event was lightly attended and received only modest coverage in the Indonesian media, reflecting both the limited enthusiasm for his prospective candidacy, as well as the fact that he had spoiled any surprise by hinting at the possibility of a run for well over a year. That said, Gus Dur--who is 67 and in poor health--is still widely respected for his passionate voice on tolerance and diversity issues in Indonesia. (Note: Wahid became president in 1999. Though widely considered honest, he was removed from office on corruption- and mismanagement-related charges in 2001.) ¶4. (C) Gus Dur's announcement was met with a mixture of indifference and melancholy by the chattering classes. While many political analysts and Mission contacts simply dismissed his prospects out of hand, others dreaded the inevitable humiliation that would accompany his unsuccessful bid. Gus Dur is, after all, still considered one of Indonesia's important historical figures and the prospect of wheeling the frail former president out on the campaign trail for a futile run struck many as unseemly. BUT IS HE ELIGIBLE? ¶5. (C) Lost in much of the coverage of the announcement was the simple fact that he might not even be eligible to run. After all, in 2004 the Indonesian Electoral Commission (KPU) ruled that Gus Dur's blindness precluded his participation in the race based on a legal requirement that a presidential aspirant be fit and healthy (Ref B). Though the presidential election laws are under review in the Indonesia Parliament (DPR) right now, there is no guarantee that the electoral fitness clause will be changed in any way that could accommodate Gus Dur. ¶6. (C) In the event the physical handicap provision of the law is adjusted, Gus Dur will still likely face another electoral eligibility provision hurdle currently under review in the DPR: the presidential threshold. According to the current election law, the only eligible presidential candidates are those nominated by parties, or coalitions, which win either 15 percent of the seats in the DPR, or 20 percent of the overall legislative votes in the 2009 Parliamentary election. Though this law might be revised to include a more manageable electoral threshold, Gus Dur's party will still likely struggle to meet any threshold above five percent. TRYING TO STOP THE BLEEDING ¶7. (C) Many people view Gus Dur's entry into the race as a way of staunching the internal PKB party bleeding by rallying the base. In 2006, several senior clerics affiliated with Nahdlatul Ulama--a mass Islamic organization with over 30 million members and the traditional base of PKB's support--established a new political party called the Ulema JAKARTA 00000488 002.2 OF 002 National Awakening Party (PKNU). PKBNU is expected to further dilute PKB's limited power and influence and erode the party's support in voter rich eastern Java. While no one believes that Gus Dur will be competitive nationwide in a presidential election, he remains a beloved figure in eastern Java and would likely still be capable of unifying the party and warding off the insurgent threat from PKBNU there. ¶8. (C) Gus Dur's daughter and PKB party Secretary General told poloff that Gus Dur's candidacy was in fact intended to serve as a vehicle to keep PKB energized and unified in 2009. According to Yenny Wahid, without another recognizable figure of Gus Dur's stature to lead the party in 2009, PKB needed to tap Gus Dur's popularity one last time in order to fuel PKB's chances in the 2009 parliamentary election. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN? ¶9. (C) The prospect of the increasingly fragile Gus Dur contesting the 2009 presidential race underscores--in the most dramatic fashion possible--the paucity of fresh blood in the 2009 race. As of right now, President Yudhoyono's principal competition for the presidency consists of two former presidents (Megawati and Gus Dur),a notorious retired general and failed presidential candidate (Wiranto),and the ex-Governor of Jakarta (Sutiyoso). With just over one year to go until next year's first presidential election round takes place, this dynamic is unlikely to change. The conspicuous absence of any new names or fresh faces makes SBY's path to a second term seem relatively secure. HUME