BURMA -- INDONESIANS OFFER TWO SEPARATE APPROACHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000401 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS (COPE),S/CT, DRL/AWH NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ID BM SUBJECT: BURMA -- INDONESIANS OFFER TWO SEPARATE APPROACHES REF: JAKARTA 294 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Dep/Pol/C Daniel Turnbull for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Two distinct and apparently separate Burma initiatives are under development in Jakarta. The two approaches were described to EAP DAS Scot Marciel in separate meetings on February 26. According to Presidential Advisor Dino Djalal, President Yudhoyono's office has prepared, and may already have sent, an invitation to Burma's president to attend a meeting that would explore ways to open up the Burmese political process ahead of the 2010 elections. The meeting would include the UN and several Asian countries but leave out the Burmese opposition. A more inclusive proposal being developed by a NGO-convened working group aims to include the opposition. In both cases, DAS Marciel expressed appreciation for Indonesia's efforts but raised concerns about the proposals. He also noted the lack of a direct U.S. role in the proposals and stressed that U.S. support for any initiative would be critical. END SUMMARY. SBY WRITING TO THAN SHWE ¶2. (C) On February 26, Dino Djalal told DAS Marciel that President SBY was finishing a letter to Burmese President Than Shwe outlining a new GOI proposal. The letter proposes a meeting in April of a "core group" of the Group of Friends: Indonesia, Burma, China, Thailand, Vietnam, and UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari. Djalal said that the meeting would discuss democracy, economic development and national unity, and would focus on getting the regime to open up the political process prior to the recently announced 2010 elections. Djalal noted that the Burmese opposition would not be included in the initial discussion. According to Djalal, the final goal of the GOI initiative was a "flexible" post-referendum order which would allow some kind of power-sharing arrangement. ¶3. (C) While acknowledging that the success of the initiative was far from assured, Djalal said that several factors allowed for some hope, including signs that the key regional players--India and China--were adopting more flexible stances. Djalal said that China had sent a letter to SBY indicating that it would support an approach that would advance democracy and development in Burma. He also said that Special Envoy Gambari, who supported the GOI initiative, had told him that India was willing to play a constructive role. Djalal also described the recent announcement of a timeline for elections as a positive step and said Than Shwe had been responsive to letters from SBY in the past. ¶4. (C) DAS Marciel said he appreciated the GOI's intentions but that the USG would have reservations about the initiative. He questioned whether any of the countries invited to the meeting, aside from Indonesia, would be willing to forcefully press the Burmese regime towards reform. He noted the recent statement by FM Wirajuda urging the regime to allow the opposition to play a role in the constitutional referendum, and stressed the need for the international community to focus on getting Burma to open its political process ahead of the May referendum, rather than look ahead to the election. He also stressed that, as a key player on the Burma issue, US support for any initiative would be critical. INCLUDING THE OPPOSITION? ¶5. (C) In a separate meeting on February 25, DAS Marciel was briefed on a separate proposal under development by a working group comprised of think tank scholars, parliamentarians and current and former GOI officials (reftel). Rizal Sukma and Jusuf Wanandi, both senior members of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described a proposed meeting that would include the regime, the NLD and other opposition groups, the UN Special Envoy, China, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore. They said that Desra Percaya, Director for International Security and Disarmament Affairs JAKARTA 00000401 002 OF 002 at the Department of Foreign Affairs (DEPLU),would, as a member of the working group, raise it in a meeting with Chinese Deputy FM that same day in Bali. ¶6. (C) Sukma admitted that he was not at all sure that the Burmese regime would agree to the meeting, but suggested that a refusal could be used as a basis for ASEAN to take some kind of action against the regime. DAS Marciel expressed appreciation for Indonesia's efforts but raised the same concerns noted to Djalal about the absence in the proposed group of countries that would push hard for progress. He said the U.S. was a key player on Burma and needed to have its views considered. ¶7. (C) It is not clear whether there is any coordination between the GOI's initiative and the working group's proposal, which share many common elements. Equally unclear is whether the Burmese regime is ready to agree to any proposal, even if the opposition is initially excluded. Sukma stressed, however, that the international community must act soon if they hope to have any influence over the April referendum. ¶8. (U) DAS Marciel cleared this message. HUME