EAST TIMOR -- INDONESIA MONITORING SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 000281 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/ANZ, EAP/RSP NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IP TT SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR -- INDONESIA MONITORING SITUATION CLOSELY REF: DILI EMAIL UPDATES 02/11/08 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate General Surabaya. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY -- In the aftermath of the February 11 attack on President Ramos-Horta, Indonesia is monitoring the situation in East Timor with concern. GOI officials have confirmed that Indonesia views the situation as an internal Timor Leste matter. Contacts in the Indonesian province of West Timor report that all seems to be calm along the border with East Timor. Worried about any instability, we expect that Indonesia will continue to monitor the situation closely, and to be very cautious and constructive in any statements it issues. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) MONITORING EVENTS -- The attack on President Ramos-Horta in Dili and other violence in East Timor is being monitored carefully by the Indonesian government. GOI contacts tell us they have been reviewing the fast-breaking situation based on reports from the Indonesian Embassy in Dili. The GOI plans to issue a public statement, but has not yet done so, though one may be issued late today. According to contacts in the Directorate of East Asian Affairs of the Department of Foreign Affairs, GOI officials have been meeting during the day to discuss the situation. ¶4. (C) NO INTERFERENCE -- Trini Gunarti, Deputy Director for North American Affairs at the Department of Foreign Affairs, told Pol/C that Indonesia's policy of "non-interference" in Timor Leste's affairs would dictate its response. LTG (ret) Agus Widjojo, who is an official adviser of President Yudhoyono and a Commissioner on the Indonesia-East Timor Commission for Truth and Friendship (CTF),echoed this sentiment in a conversation with Regional Stability Unit Chief. He said he had every expectation that Indonesia would view the attack as "a purely internal affair" of Timor Leste and would not interfere in any way. ¶5. (C) Wisber Loeis, who is also an Indonesian Commissioner on the CTF and seems well-informed re East Timor, told Dep/Pol/C that the attack had come despite Ramos-Horta's efforts to find a peaceful solution to the differences with Major Alfredo Reinado (who apparently was behind the violence). He also commented that he understood Horta had been attacked during his daily physical fitness regimen and had been without his security guards. Loeis suggested that the attack had been an act of "desperation" by Reinado loyalists in the face of a steady stream of Reinado followers who had defected and made their peace with the government. He noted that the government had begun to take a firmer line on Reinado after he had rebuffed several of the GOTL's good-faith efforts. ¶6. (C) QUIET ON THE BORDER -- So far, there appears to be no unusual activity on the border between East Timor and the Indonesian province of West Timor. Gregorious Mau Bili, Vice Regency Chief of Belu, which is located near West Timor's north coast, told ConGen Surabaya that the border was operating normally, albeit with heightened security awareness. There were no reports of refugees or other abnormal activities from the East Timor side. Haris Oetan of CIS Timor, an NGO in West Timor, told ConGen Surabaya that NGOs in the region were nevertheless preparing for a possible influx of refugees. ¶7. (C) INDONESIAN CONCERNS -- Worried about any instability in a neighboring state and possible impact along the border, we expect that Indonesia will continue to monitor the situation closely. We expect that the GOI will want to be very cautious and constructive in any statements it issues, not wanting to entangle itself in East Timor's affairs. HEFFERN