BALI BOMBERS -- PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 002019

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, CA/OCS, S/CT, S/ES, O/CMS
INL FOR BARCLAY/ROESS/BUHLER/CARLON
DOJ FOR CRIM AAG SWARTZ, DOJ/OPDAT FOR
LEHMANN/ALEXANDRE/BERMAN
DOJ/CTS FOR MULLANEY, ST HILAIRE
FBI FOR ETTUI/SSA ROTH
NCTC WASHDC
NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PTER KJUS CASC ID AS
SUBJECT: BALI BOMBERS -- PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY FOR
EXECUTIONS

REF: A. JAKARTA 1991

B. JAKARTA 1982 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The executions of the Bali Bombers are
widely anticipated to occur during the November 1 through 4
timeframe. Multiple Mission contacts report that
preparations are being made, although the exact date has not
been made public. The public outcry is expected to be
minimal, but a small group of Bali bomber sympathizers have
announced plans to convene near the presumed execution site
(an island prison located off of central Java).


2. (C) SUMMARY (Con'd): While Mission contacts do not
anticipate any retaliatory attacks, they report that
demonstrations by sympathizers could potentially escalate,
but remain well within the GOI's capabilities to control.
Mission issued a pre-cleared Warden Notice on October 31, and
suggested press guidance is being sent to Washington.
Mission also convened an EAC. END SUMMARY.

EXECUTIONS POSSIBLY IMMINENT


3. (SBU) On October 30, Indonesia's Deputy Attorney General,
Mochtar Arifin, announced that the executions could be
expected as early as the 1st, 2nd or 3rd of November. This
statement was later followed by the announcement that "early
November" could be anytime until November 10. Given previous
delays, it is possible that the executions could be
re-scheduled and take place even further down the road.


4. (SBU) The Bali bombers may soon receive notification of
the execution date. Balinese prosecutors have reportedly
arrived in central Java, an indicator that the Bali bombers
may soon be notified as per Indonesian regulation. Amrozi
(one name only),Imam Samudra and Ali Gufron (a.k.a.
"Mukhlas") are incarcerated on the prison island of Nusa
Kambangan located off of central Java.

PROTESTS


5. (C) The three terrorists are not popular heroes in
Indonesia. The vast majority of Indonesians oppose terrorism
and condemn what happened in Bali in October 2002. That
said, a small group of extremists have stated that they plan
to protest. There are two likely venues of protest:

-- Island Prison: The Islamic Defenders Front (FPI),a small
but militant group, and other extremists have pledged to send
supporters to the area of the prison to protest. In order to
counter this possibility, security on Nusa Kambangan has been
tightened by the GOI and visitors are reportedly banned from
entering the island.

-- Place of Interrment: Sidney Jones (AmCit--please protect)
of the International Crisis Group suggests that supporters
could protest at the point where the bodies were transferred
from the execution site to their families for burial. Jones
told poloff such a protest would be more difficult to control
and could lead to violence. It is not known where the
terrorists may be buried if executed, but, per Islamic rules,
burial needs to happen within 24 hours or so after death.

That said, the FPI has a presence in other cities in

JAKARTA 00002019 002 OF 002


Indonesia and protests are possible in Jakarta, for example.
(Note: In a separate matter, the leader of the FPI and
another extremist leader were convicted of inciting violence
in October 30 verdicts. This factor may have hurt FPI
capabilities.)

POSSIBLE ATTACKS


6. (C) The Bali bombers and Jemmah Islamiyah co-founder Abu
Bakar Bashir have called for revenge if the executions take
place. The Bali bombers released "revenge" letters on
October 22 and conducted a media interview with CNN on
October 25. Through both mediums, the three warned of future
attacks. Abu Bakar Bashir used the anniversary of the Bali
bombings on October 12 to publicly support the three
terrorists and pledge further attacks. Ansyaad Mbai and
Dharmawan Ronodipuro from the Counter Terrorism Coordinating
Desk told poloff, that the likelihood of revenge attacks was
low and the GOI security forces were ready and monitoring the
situation.

MISSION PREPARATIONS


7. (SBU) Mission convened an EAC on October 30 (see septel),
issued a pre-cleared Warden Notice on October 31 and is
preparing to take increased security procedures surrounding
Mission's election day event on November 5 (Jakarta time)
(see ref A). Mission is also preparing suggested press
guidance, which will be shared with the Department.

HUME