BALI BOMBERS -- PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 002019 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, CA/OCS, S/CT, S/ES, O/CMS INL FOR BARCLAY/ROESS/BUHLER/CARLON DOJ FOR CRIM AAG SWARTZ, DOJ/OPDAT FOR LEHMANN/ALEXANDRE/BERMAN DOJ/CTS FOR MULLANEY, ST HILAIRE FBI FOR ETTUI/SSA ROTH NCTC WASHDC NSC FOR E.PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER KJUS CASC ID AS SUBJECT: BALI BOMBERS -- PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY FOR EXECUTIONS REF: A. JAKARTA 1991 ¶B. JAKARTA 1982 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The executions of the Bali Bombers are widely anticipated to occur during the November 1 through 4 timeframe. Multiple Mission contacts report that preparations are being made, although the exact date has not been made public. The public outcry is expected to be minimal, but a small group of Bali bomber sympathizers have announced plans to convene near the presumed execution site (an island prison located off of central Java). ¶2. (C) SUMMARY (Con'd): While Mission contacts do not anticipate any retaliatory attacks, they report that demonstrations by sympathizers could potentially escalate, but remain well within the GOI's capabilities to control. Mission issued a pre-cleared Warden Notice on October 31, and suggested press guidance is being sent to Washington. Mission also convened an EAC. END SUMMARY. EXECUTIONS POSSIBLY IMMINENT ¶3. (SBU) On October 30, Indonesia's Deputy Attorney General, Mochtar Arifin, announced that the executions could be expected as early as the 1st, 2nd or 3rd of November. This statement was later followed by the announcement that "early November" could be anytime until November 10. Given previous delays, it is possible that the executions could be re-scheduled and take place even further down the road. ¶4. (SBU) The Bali bombers may soon receive notification of the execution date. Balinese prosecutors have reportedly arrived in central Java, an indicator that the Bali bombers may soon be notified as per Indonesian regulation. Amrozi (one name only),Imam Samudra and Ali Gufron (a.k.a. "Mukhlas") are incarcerated on the prison island of Nusa Kambangan located off of central Java. PROTESTS ¶5. (C) The three terrorists are not popular heroes in Indonesia. The vast majority of Indonesians oppose terrorism and condemn what happened in Bali in October 2002. That said, a small group of extremists have stated that they plan to protest. There are two likely venues of protest: -- Island Prison: The Islamic Defenders Front (FPI),a small but militant group, and other extremists have pledged to send supporters to the area of the prison to protest. In order to counter this possibility, security on Nusa Kambangan has been tightened by the GOI and visitors are reportedly banned from entering the island. -- Place of Interrment: Sidney Jones (AmCit--please protect) of the International Crisis Group suggests that supporters could protest at the point where the bodies were transferred from the execution site to their families for burial. Jones told poloff such a protest would be more difficult to control and could lead to violence. It is not known where the terrorists may be buried if executed, but, per Islamic rules, burial needs to happen within 24 hours or so after death. That said, the FPI has a presence in other cities in JAKARTA 00002019 002 OF 002 Indonesia and protests are possible in Jakarta, for example. (Note: In a separate matter, the leader of the FPI and another extremist leader were convicted of inciting violence in October 30 verdicts. This factor may have hurt FPI capabilities.) POSSIBLE ATTACKS ¶6. (C) The Bali bombers and Jemmah Islamiyah co-founder Abu Bakar Bashir have called for revenge if the executions take place. The Bali bombers released "revenge" letters on October 22 and conducted a media interview with CNN on October 25. Through both mediums, the three warned of future attacks. Abu Bakar Bashir used the anniversary of the Bali bombings on October 12 to publicly support the three terrorists and pledge further attacks. Ansyaad Mbai and Dharmawan Ronodipuro from the Counter Terrorism Coordinating Desk told poloff, that the likelihood of revenge attacks was low and the GOI security forces were ready and monitoring the situation. MISSION PREPARATIONS ¶7. (SBU) Mission convened an EAC on October 30 (see septel), issued a pre-cleared Warden Notice on October 31 and is preparing to take increased security procedures surrounding Mission's election day event on November 5 (Jakarta time) (see ref A). Mission is also preparing suggested press guidance, which will be shared with the Department. HUME