SULTAN FORMALLY ANNOUNCES HE'S RUNNING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001995

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID SOCI
SUBJECT: SULTAN FORMALLY ANNOUNCES HE'S RUNNING FOR
PRESIDENT

REF: A. JAKARTA 1517

B. JAKARTA 1321

C. SURABAYA 082

JAKARTA 00001995 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In front of a large crowd, the Sultan of
Yogyakarta has formally announced his intention to run for
president in 2009. The announcement was widely expected
given that the Sultan has been campaigning for some time. A
popular figure in Java, the Sultan faces a challenge in
translating his assets into votes for president. He also
does not appear to have firm party support at this point.
Nonetheless, given the cultural/political importance of his
sultanate, he is a figure to watch. END SUMMARY.

AMID MUCH FANFARE, SULTAN TAKES THE PLUNGE


2. (U) Sultan Hamengkubuwono X has thrown his hat into the
ring and is running for president. Amid much fanfare, the
Sultan announced his intentions on October 28 at a campaign
event held in Yogyakarta, the special district in central
Java of which he is governor. At the event, the Sultan
stated "I hereby declare my readiness to become president in

2009. I can't stand seeing the people suffer...ten years of
reform have not brought fundamental change." In making an
official announcement, the Sultan joins such figures as
President Yudhoyono and former president Megawati who have
already taken the plunge.


3. (U) The announcement was expected given that the Sultan
has already been on the political hustings for some time (see
reftels). The event was held in front of a crowd of 20,000
in central Yogyakarta. During the ceremony, the Sultan was
surrounded by dozens of other Indonesian aristocrats from
Yogyakarta and from other regions of the country. According
to contacts who were at the event, he was repeatedly cheered
by the crowd. The aristocrats present at the occasion also
announced their endorsement of the Sultan's effort.

A POPULAR FIGURE


4. (C) The Sultan, 52, is a popular, well-liked figure among
Yogyakartans but does not have much support elsewhere, except
in Papua where the Christian population likes his secular
approach. He serves as the head of an extended aristocratic
network in Yogyakarta. His father, Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX,
served as a vice president of Indonesia during the Suharto
era and was a major hero during the Indonesian revolutionary
era. Due to the support he rendered to the revolutionaries,
the Indonesian government recognized Yogyakarta as a special
district and gave the sultanate official authority, with the
Sultan earning the right to serve a political role as
governor. (Note: Since 1998, the Sultan has to earn that
right via an election in the local council, which basically
is a mere formality. Per Ref A, after the Sultan's
supporters held rallies in Yogyakarta, President Yudhoyono
recently signed a decree extending the term of the Sultan as
governor by three years.)


5. (C) Since becoming head of the Sultanate upon the death
of his father in 1989, the Sultan has maintained high
popularity in his region. He also has become a national
figure, serving on many boards and presiding at many
ceremonial events. He ran a vigorous nationwide campaign to
build support before announcing his candidacy.

QUESTIONS ABOUT PARTY SUPPORT


6. (C) The Sultan does not appear to have much party
support. He is a long-standing member of Golkar, Indonesia's
largest political party, and serves on the advisory board of

JAKARTA 00001995 002.2 OF 002


the party. He is also popular with some of the party's
regional councils in Java. That said, he has little
influence on the party's machinery, which is controlled by
Golkar Party Chair and Vice President Yusuf Kalla.


7. (C) Kalla is not considered particularly popular, but
most observers believe that he can continue to control the
party into the near- to mid-term. Kalla is also considering
whether to run for president in 2009 on the Golkar ticket
depending on how the party does in next year's legislative
elections. It seems possible that the Sultan will try to
grab Golkar's nomination (if the party actually makes one).
If he does not get it, he will be in a tricky position.
This, in light of the fact that--depending on an ongoing
debate--he probably will have to be nominated by some 15-20
percent of members of Parliament in order to get on the
ballot. He is, however, on the shortlist as a potential vice
presidential candidate for several major political parties.

HE COULD BE A CONTENDER


8. (C) The Sultan's campaign faces some headwinds. He is
not considered very charismatic and everyone who knows him
well has said that he did not inherit his father's articulate
nature and strategic range. His party network is not
apparent, and, while he seems to have some financial
wherewithal, he does not have an advantage in that area over
other contenders, such as President Yudhoyono and former
president Megawati. Despite being a Muslim, his very secular
philosophy hurts his popularity among devout Muslims.
Nonetheless, given the cultural/political importance of his
sultanate, he is a figure to watch. Deeply respected in
Java--the most populous area of the country, he seems to have
a natural voter base that could boost his chances.
HUME